Last updated on Aug 13, 2024

You're facing conflicting weather forecasts before a flight. How do you decide which advice to follow?

Deciding on a flight plan when faced with conflicting weather forecasts can be a challenging scenario. As a pilot, safety is your paramount concern, and navigating this uncertainty requires a systematic approach. You must weigh the available information, understand the limitations of weather predictions, and use your judgment to make the best decision for your flight. In the following sections, you'll discover how to sift through varying reports and decide which advice to follow, ensuring that you prioritize safety without succumbing to unnecessary delays or risks.

1 Assess Sources

When you encounter conflicting weather forecasts, your first step is to assess the credibility of the sources. Official sources such as the National Weather Service (NWS) or the Aviation Weather Center (AWC) typically provide reliable information. However, discrepancies can arise between different forecasting models. It's essential to consider the expertise behind each forecast and the data's recency. Cross-checking with real-time data from Automated Weather Observing Systems (AWOS) or Pilot Reports (PIREPs) can also provide a more accurate picture of current conditions.

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🇧🇷 Mauricio B.

AMT
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Na aviação não existem previsões meteorológicas conflitantes na aviação. O processo foi desenvolvido para ser confiável. A aviação não voa baseado nas previsões do Google ou Weathers Chanel.

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Mark Leevers

Operations Duty Officer, Volunteer SAR Pilot
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There are platforms such as windy.com or Earth.null that provide different weather models from different agencies. Try matching as much data as you can to find a consensus in the information.

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2 Evaluate Risks

Evaluating the potential risks associated with each forecast is crucial. Consider how adverse weather could affect your specific flight path. Are there reports of severe turbulence, icing conditions, or thunderstorms? Understand the implications of each scenario on your aircraft's performance and your ability to navigate safely. It's important to not only consider the worst-case scenario but also to have contingency plans in place. This might include identifying alternate airports or routes that avoid the forecasted weather.

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Mark Leevers

Operations Duty Officer, Volunteer SAR Pilot
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If we ever had conflicting information it was always the safest option to plan for the worst case scenario. This was always the safest option, even if we had to leave load behind.

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3 Consult ATC

Air Traffic Control (ATC) can be an invaluable resource when facing uncertain weather conditions. They have access to up-to-the-minute weather radar and can offer insights into what other pilots are experiencing. Before making a decision, reach out to ATC or Flight Service Stations for their advice. They can provide recommendations based on current traffic patterns and weather developments that may not be reflected in earlier forecasts.

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🇧🇷 Mauricio B.

AMT
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Consultar o ATC não é um recurso é um meio. Consultar o ATC não é um recurso é um meio. Consultar o ATC não é um recurso é um meio.

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4 Trust Training

Your training as a pilot has equipped you with the skills to interpret weather information and make informed decisions. Trust in your training and experience when evaluating conflicting forecasts. Consider how each potential weather scenario aligns with your level of comfort and proficiency. Remember that it's always better to err on the side of caution. If you're unsure about the conditions, it's advisable to delay your flight or seek additional information until you have a clearer picture.

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Mark Leevers

Operations Duty Officer, Volunteer SAR Pilot
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This where those classes you took when you were studying for your license come in handy, like meteorology and climatology. Apply this knowledge to the data and work out which is that most likely correct forecast.

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5 Review Regulations

Federal Aviation Regulations (FARs) set specific weather minimums for flight operations, which can help guide your decision-making process. Review these regulations to ensure that your planned flight would be compliant under each forecast scenario. The FARs serve as a legal baseline, but remember that they do not account for all variables. Your decision should exceed these minimums based on the actual conditions and your personal minimums as a pilot.

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Gina M. Longo

Committed to making aviation even safer. ➤Aviation Leadership Trainer ➤Speaker ➤Pilot ➤German Shepherd Lover ➤Proud NCSU Wolfpack Alumna
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You can't go wrong by adhering to the regs! Sure, you might get away with flying in questionable weather, but one day your luck will almost certainly run out, and it's always better to be on the ground wishing you were in the air than in the air wishing you were on the ground. Weather minimums, personal weather minimums, fuel requirements, etc., are for your safety and the safety of your passengers. And never forget... those FARs were written in blood. Don't be the next person who adds another "fatal accident cause: pilot error" statistic to the NTSB's database.

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🇧🇷 Mauricio B.

AMT
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O FAR não é uma regulação Brasileira ou da ANAC. o FAR é regulação Americana portanto é do FAA. As autoridades é quem tem a prerrogativa de revisar as regulamentações aeronáuticas de casa pais

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6 Final Check

Before making your final decision, perform one last comprehensive check of all available information. This includes revisiting weather forecasts, consulting with fellow pilots, and considering any updates from ATC. It's also important to check the status of onboard weather equipment to ensure it's functioning correctly. With all this information at hand, you can make a well-informed decision that prioritizes safety and aligns with your comfort level as a pilot.

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Enric P.
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Even with all the WX information available, the weather can be unpredictable. Nowadays we see more extreme meteorological phenomena in unusual places. Maybe global warming is changing some rules.

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🇧🇷 Mauricio B.

AMT
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Verificar o status dos dos equipamentos meteorológicos para ver se funcionam corretamente.... Algumas condições aqui supostas, não são aplicáveis na aviação mundial. Ocorrer uma falha durante o vôo é passivo, a tripulação assumir vôo com um equipamento não confiável é violação.

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7 Here’s what else to consider

This is a space to share examples, stories, or insights that don’t fit into any of the previous sections. What else would you like to add?

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You're facing conflicting weather forecasts before a flight. How do you decide which advice to follow?

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1 Assess Sources

2 Evaluate Risks

3 Consult ATC

4 Trust Training

5 Review Regulations

6 Final Check

7 Here’s what else to consider

Aviation

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