Here's how you can steer clear of logical fallacies in digital strategy decision-making.

In my opinion, there are many fallacies that will distract us while working on the strategy. Based on what I have experienced, it is better to take time to understand the true north ( which is different for all of us) and work out a plan to get there. The plan can be small , tactful , realistic and achievable. These will also help in understanding the fallacies (which includes false theories, distractions , strategies or actions that would not be applicable for the case). Minimising the distractions and qualifying real tasks that need to be understood and addressed is the key to success We also need to keep in mind that some of the risks or distractions could be the opportunities for real rearward . May the divine guide us

Prime example: So many companies foolishly wrote off TikTok as “just for teenage girls” early on (and some still to this day)! Those who were willing to experiment and invest reaped massive rewards in a bunch of unconventional ways. One of our clients, a national trucking company, turned their TikTok into their biggest recruiting mechanism. They lowered their CAC for drivers and grew so much over a 3 year period they had to stop adding new drivers (unheard of in the industry).

▪ Data is King: Back decisions with data, not hunches. ▪ Explore All Options: Don't just confirm what you believe - consider alternatives. ▪ Sunk Costs Don't Matter: Focus on future value, not past investments. ▪ Correlation vs. Causation: Don't confuse "happens with" for "caused by." ▪ Numbers Talk: Quantify factors whenever possible for clear comparisons. ▪ Skip the Bandwagon: Trends are cool, but do they fit your goals?

Stop surrounding management with sycophants and yes men and women Question everything and if it’s that important of a decision do a quick SWOT analysts. There is absolutely nothing wrong for staffers to play devils advocate If the assumptions are correct they will stand up to being questioned

In revamping a digital strategy for a consumer electronics company, we initially leaned towards social media marketing, based on past successes. To counter potential confirmation bias, I urged broader market research, which revealed a significant customer segment, aged 35-50, responded better to email marketing and SEO. By questioning our assumptions and seeking diverse data, we diversified our strategy, enhancing reach and engagement across varied demographics. This approach ensured our strategy was grounded in objective analysis rather than just past trends.

Golden rule of digital strategy or perhaps any marketing strategy is “ There is nothing Obvious “ . The biggest assumption we all as marketers think is that we assume lot of trends, behaviours , customers requirements etc There is always difference between needs and wants. Nothing obvious, cross check everything before forming digital strategy

we must not rely solely on what we see and reinforce it, but study what we do not see or what does not come to us, and find experimental solutions to improve. An illustrative example comes from World War II military aviation. Initially, military engineers reinforced parts of aircraft that returned from missions showing damage. However, this approach did not improve the survivability of the planes. The situation changed when they began to reinforce the parts of the aircraft that were most critical and not returning—those areas which, if hit, led to the planes being shot down. This shift in perspective led to significantly better results.

Dans la stratégie numérique, les hypothèses s’appuient souvent sur des convictions sur le comportement des clients et l’efficacité des plateformes. Ouvrir une analyse sur les convictions propres à plusieurs parties prenantes et en confrontant ces convictions permet d’élargir le Champs dès possible, de redéfinir le périmètre de données et réadapter sa stratégie.

A homogenous group is more likely to fall prey to confirmation bias, where members unconsciously seek out information that validates their existing beliefs and assumptions. By incorporating diverse viewpoints, backgrounds, and expertise, you foster an environment where ideas are rigorously challenged and scrutinized from multiple angles. This reduces the likelihood of groupthink and other logical fallacies, leading to more balanced and well-rounded strategies.

While leading a digital strategy session, I emphasized diversity of perspectives to avoid groupthink. We included stakeholders from various departments and external experts, encouraging open dissent and alternative viewpoints. This approach revealed overlooked flaws and sparked innovative ideas, preventing irrational decisions that could arise from a too-cohesive group. By valuing diverse opinions, we fostered a culture of critical thinking and collaboration, enhancing our strategy's effectiveness and adaptability. This practice proved crucial in developing a robust, well-rounded digital strategy.

A digital strategy that incorporates input from representatives of all teams is more likely to generate diverse ideas and suggestions. Additionally, this inclusive approach has the added benefit of increasing acceptance among the people who will be responsible for implementing the strategy. When team members feel a sense of ownership over the plan, they are more committed and motivated to see it succeed. This collaborative process not only enriches the strategy with varied perspectives but also fosters a collective commitment to achieving the organisation’s digital goals.

Incorporating diverse perspectives is key to avoiding groupthink, where the desire for harmony leads to irrational outcomes. Engage various stakeholders and experts in your digital strategy sessions to gain insights that challenge prevailing opinions and foster innovation. Encourage team members to voice dissenting opinions and consider alternative viewpoints. This approach helps identify potential flaws in your strategy and promotes a culture of critical thinking and collaboration. By valuing diverse perspectives, you ensure a more thorough and balanced evaluation, enhancing the overall effectiveness and robustness of your digital strategy.

Understanding data points is key in digital strategy. Taking the same example from the article, a traffic spike may not always result from a recent campaign; seasonal trends or concurrent events could influence it. To interpret data accurately, compare it with previous years and consider external factors. This differentiates correlation from causation, a vital concept in data analysis. In digital world's dynamic landscape, strategies should be based on diverse data analysis to ensure decisions are evidence-based, avoiding misleading assumptions.

No study is complete without measurement, it needs to be backed by data, methodologies and its restrictions to be able to make the study useful and easy to comprehend.

Evaluar las evidencias de manera objetiva y crítica es crucial para el éxito en el entorno digital. Efectivamente en la estrategia digital, las falacias pueden distorsionar gravemente la evaluación de las evidencias. El sesgo de confirmación, puede ser muy dañino si no tenemos cuidado con las creencias preexistentes, ignorando pruebas contrarias. Esto no solo podría socavar la toma de decisiones basada en datos reales, sino que también puede llevar a estrategias ineficaces y a la pérdida de oportunidades valiosas.

Ensure that everything you do is measurable and provides data. Without data, decisions are often based on assumptions rather than facts. By measuring every step of your strategy, you can identify not only causal relationships but also key points for innovation and improvement. Critically evaluate the evidence to avoid the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, which mistakenly assumes that if one event follows another, the first caused the second. Examine causality rather than mere correlation by looking at multiple data points and considering other variables that might influence the results. This thorough analysis ensures your strategic decisions are based on reliable evidence.

Evaluating evidence critically is essential to avoid the post hoc ergo propter hoc fallacy, which mistakenly assumes that if one event follows another, the first must have caused the second. In digital strategy, this could mean incorrectly attributing a spike in website traffic to a recent marketing campaign without considering other possible factors. Scrutinize the evidence for causation rather than correlation by looking at multiple data points and considering other variables that could influence the outcomes. This level of analysis helps ensure that your strategic decisions are informed by reliable evidence, reducing the risk of basing actions on false assumptions.

If you can honestly say you understand the business, have spoken with people and understand their problems and those two align with your vision, you’re good. That’s what logic is. Understanding stuff. Once you understand stuff, you won’t screw up. If you don’t? Do more work to do so.

Maintaining logical consistency helps prevent the slippery slope fallacy, which suggests that a small first step will lead to a chain of related events culminating in a significant (usually negative) effect. In digital strategy, this might manifest as an overestimation of the negative impact of a small budget cut or a minor change in social media algorithms. To avoid this, assess each argument or prediction on its own merits, without assuming that one change will inevitably lead to extreme outcomes. Consistently applying this critical thinking to all aspects of your strategy ensures balanced and rational decision-making, reducing the likelihood of unnecessary alarmism and preserving strategic clarity.

Maintaining logical consistency helps prevent the slippery slope fallacy, which suggests that a small step will lead to a chain of events culminating in a significant negative effect. In digital strategy, this could manifest as overestimating the impact of a small budget cut or a minor change in social media algorithms. To avoid this, assess each argument or prediction on its own merits, without assuming that one change will inevitably lead to extreme outcomes. Consistently apply this critical thinking to all aspects of your strategy to ensure balanced and rational decision-making, thereby creating a more stable and effective digital strategy.

Denken sie niemals das sie alles wüssten oder der klügste Mensch im Raum sind. Sie können nahezu von jedem etwas Lernen. Lernen sie kontinuierlich um nicht nur den Anschluss zu verlieren, sondern um aufgrund ihres Wissensvorsprung vorneweg zu laufen. Finden sie ihren individuellen Zugang zum Lernen der ihnen Freude bereitet, sonst wird dies zur Last und wird sie eher lähmen als voranbringen.

Lastly, embracing continuous learning can shield you from the false cause fallacy, where a perceived relationship between two events is incorrectly attributed to causation. In digital strategy, this could involve mistaking a correlation between social media engagement and sales as a direct cause-effect relationship without considering other contributing factors. Stay informed about the latest digital marketing research, trends, and case studies to refine your understanding of cause-and-effect relationships within digital ecosystems. This ongoing education will help you make more nuanced and effective strategic decisions, ensuring that your strategies are based on accurate interpretations of data and not on mistaken causal assumptions.

If you want to create better strategies... keep learning! Suck up inspiration, discover your unknown, unknowns. Always be on the hunt for new things you can test. BUT filter rigourously

Embracing continuous learning can shield you from the false cause fallacy, where a perceived relationship between two events is incorrectly attributed to causation. In digital strategy, this might involve mistaking a correlation between social media engagement and sales as a direct cause-effect relationship without considering other factors. Stay informed about the latest digital marketing research, trends, and case studies to refine your understanding of cause-and-effect relationships within digital ecosystems. This ongoing education will help you make more nuanced and effective strategic decisions, ensuring that your digital strategy is based on accurate and comprehensive insights.

Don't confuse opinions and expertise. Challenge both. Every marketer and marketing VP will tell you that decisions need to be data-driven, but the reality of decision making is a more ambiguous and complex. Define clear goals and rely on OKRs. They will make your strategy meaningful and sustainable.

Il est important avant toute chose de définir clairement des critères de choix pour l'élaboration d'une stratégie numérique. De part ma propre expérience, j'ai remarqué que rien que le fait de définir des critères aide à éliminer les sophismes cités dans cet article. Si par exemple par intuition ou préférence on choisit LinkedIn pour le développement de telle ou telle stratégie, avoir défini auparavant comme critère la présence de la cible sur les réseaux sociaux en s'appuyant sur des statistiques, vous aidera peut-être à comprendre qu'en fait, c'est plutôt vers instagram que vous devriez vous orienter... Ou alors, opter pour une application mobile uniquement, plutôt qu'un site web vu par exemple les habitudes de la cible.

It is crucial to avoid logical fallacies when defining digital strategies, using varied data, independent research, and robust analytical methods. Additionally, it is important to observe cultural influences to avoid data distortions, both in the market and within the marketing team, which should be as diverse as possible to offer different viewpoints. I had experience adapting narratives within the same country due to deep cultural differences that even permeated the vocabulary with products that were redesigned to be accepted. Developing a global marketing plan that always engages with the local culture and its different audiences is essential, as culture can distort data if local values and behaviors are not considered.