What is the best market sizing strategy for your product?

Market Sizing In the Healthcare Ecosystem, personally the use of IQVia data sources formerly IMS Health is one of he best! So the ask is for a list of USA Cardiologists. If the ask is for Medical Devices, then use the Gray book, which details products used, and will show the 5 year trend by hospital/IDN and by HCP. Another option is Focusing on the state, then the city/zip code and find the actual specialties and sub-specialties of the HCPs . Let's say you're seeking Pacemaker HCPs/surgeons. As such, you may also ask for the phone, email, address/s of the HCPs. Sizing can also be the # of procedures the HCP completes per year, gathered from IQVia or CMS data. there are many other ways to Market Size.

This method involves starting with the overall market size and then drilling down to estimate the specific segment relevant to your product. a. Identify the Total Addressable Market (TAM): Begin with the broader market, which, in this case, could be the entire personal transportation market. b. Define the Segments: Break down the market into relevant segments, such as electric vehicles, within which electric scooters fall. c. Use External Data: Leverage existing industry reports, government statistics, and market research to estimate the size of the electric vehicle market.

The top-down market sizing strategy involves starting with the overall market size and then narrowing it down to estimate your product's potential share. It's useful for getting a quick, high-level view of the market but may not be as precise. You begin with a broad market figure and then make assumptions to arrive at your product's potential size within that market, making it a good starting point for initial analysis.

Expand the top-down approach by incorporating qualitative research to complement quantitative estimates. While the top-down approach provides a broad market sizing perspective, qualitative insights from customer interviews, surveys, or focus groups offer a deeper understanding of customer behaviors and preferences. This combination ensures a more comprehensive and realistic assessment of market potential. Additionally, continuously validate your assumptions and findings through iterative testing and refinement, allowing your market sizing strategy to evolve based on real-world insights and customer feedback. This blended approach enhances the accuracy and reliability of your market sizing efforts.

KudoAI adopts a bottom-up approach to market sizing. For example, GoogleGPT's performance & traction is measured by analyzing daily/total install counts on Greasy Fork. Aggregate data for other apps like DuckDuckGPT & BraveGPT is used to deduce a more comprehensive market size not confined to any one site. This method ensures a detailed understanding of each app's impact first, then allows for a more nuanced and insightful overview of the broader market landscape.

This method involves starting with specific details and aggregating them to estimate the overall market size. a. Define the Target Customer: Identify your ideal customer for electric scooters, considering factors like age, location, and lifestyle. b. Estimate Usage: Understand how often your target customer might use an electric scooter and the distance covered per use. c. Determine Pricing: Set a realistic price for your electric scooters based on production costs, competitors' pricing, and perceived customer value.

Enhance the bottom-up approach by incorporating external factors and industry trends into your projections. While the bottom-up approach relies on internal metrics, consider external market dynamics, technological advancements, or regulatory changes that may influence the growth trajectory. Conduct a thorough analysis of market trends and competitor landscapes to identify potential opportunities and threats. Blend the internal data-driven approach with external market intelligence to create a more balanced and informed market sizing strategy. This integration ensures that your projections are not solely based on historical data but also consider the broader context in which your product operates.

Value Based approached Market Sizing, one way to evaluate this model is to look at the 3 years trend of EDI claims for similar products, these are adjudicated CMS claims and or commercial claims. Launching a new product in the similar niche this approach can be of value. However, if selling a capital investment, $100k Medical Device, a value based approach, benchmark look at the # of CMS vs Commercial patients and the stated reimbursement for the adjudicated claim then simply divide the procedure cost into the $100k to see the break even. Value may be in the time saved using a new product, the higher billing rate, the accuracy & precision of the product...as with an Ai, start with the answer and work backwards to develop the prompts.

Complement the value-based approach by conducting customer segmentation to understand diverse perceptions of value. Recognize that different customer segments may attribute varying values to your product based on their unique needs and preferences. Conduct surveys, interviews, or user testing to gather insights into what specific features or benefits customers find most valuable. By tailoring your value proposition to different segments, you can refine your market sizing strategy to better align with the nuanced ways customers assess and measure value. This customer-centric approach ensures that your market sizing reflects the diverse perspectives within your target audience.

The hybrid market sizing strategy combines elements of both top-down and bottom-up approaches. It starts with an overall market size but also gathers data at a more granular level to refine the estimate. This approach offers a balance between speed and accuracy, making it suitable for many situations. By combining data-driven details with a broader market perspective, it provides a more well-rounded picture of your product's potential market size.

Streamline the hybrid approach by prioritizing key factors based on their impact on your product's success. Identify the most critical aspects that align with your immediate goals and product stage. For example, if your primary focus is validating product-market fit, emphasize the bottom-up approach to assess real user engagement and revenue potential. As your product matures, shift towards a balanced integration of the top-down and value-based approaches to refine market positioning and pricing. Regularly reassess and adjust your hybrid approach based on evolving business objectives and market dynamics. This agile adaptation ensures that your market sizing strategy remains relevant and effective in guiding your product development journey.

If it is a new product launch in a market, I found turning the question into - Will it succeed? and using the XYZ hypothesis method as explained by Alberto Savoia in his YT videos (Say it with numbers) to be super helpful. It uses the idea of probability of success given that market numbers are wishy washy whether top-down or bottom-up. Once a product is launched, he pushes to get actual data and adjust the probabilities to see if actual results beat the expected results. Using a market test method he calls pretotyping (basically getting a basic MVP out there in market), and then applying Bayesian probability of success given new data, he gives a simple measure to determine success of a product launch. The assumptions are cleaner too.