C-MACC

Gain a strategic edge with unique networking opportunities, industry-leading insights, procurement solutions with real transaction polymer pricing, and the consulting expertise from C-MACC. Summer of Profits – Possible for Some, Summer of Opportunities - Certain for Most:https://hubs.li/Q02JVDzJ0 #chemicals #hydrogen #marketresearch #chemicalindustry #consulting #chemicalmarket #energy #oilandgas #olefins #polyolefins #plastics

Daily Chemical Reaction - August 28: Global Ammonia Price Strength: Good for US Producers, Bad for Farmers; Bloated Solar Module Market to Persist Near Term | https://hubs.li/Q02MYlk30 🔍General Thoughts: US fertilizer and agricultural chemical equities continue to outperform crop markets, though some recent input price strength, such as in fertilizer, further disfavors on-farm spending amid shrinking incomes. 🔍#SupplyChain / #Commodities: We frame the global benzene market, highlighting price differences between the US, Asia, and Europe, and flag falling sentiment among German manufacturers that could further worsen in 2H24. 🔍#Energy / #Upstream: We discuss the leadership change at PEMEX, falling crude oil and natural gas production in Mexico relative to 2021-23 levels, and the push among Chinese refiners to become more internationally focused. 🔍#Sustainability / #EnergyTransition: We highlight ramping US solar module production despite elevated inventory from imports and offshore wind power developments being alluring but prohibitively expensive in some markets. 🔍#Downstream / Other #Chemicals: We discuss US and Brazil's corn and soybean exports to China, rising competition in global crop markets, and the multi-layered movement from China to become more self-sufficient in agriculture. Companies: CF Industries LSB Industries, Inc. Nutrien Huntsman Corporation BASF Covestro Dow Wanhua Chemical Group SINOPEC KMG Pemex China National Petroleum Corporation Indian Oil Corporation BYD Issaquena Green Power Carbon Clean PETRONAS XPENG SunPower Corporation Woodside Energy Syngenta Commodities: #Ammonia, #Benzene, #Corn, #Fertilizer, #Soybean, #Naphtha, #PET, #PTA, Crude #Oil, Natural #Gas, Basic #Chemicals, #Polymers, #Gasoline, #Diesel, Jet #Fuel, #EVs, #Steel, #Carbon Dioxide, #Solar Modules, Offshore #Wind, #Hydrogen, #Canola, #Water #CMACC #marketanalysis #marketresearch #consulting #chemicalmarket #oilandgas #upstream #downstream

Daily Chemical Reaction - August 27: My Chemical Romance – Oil & Gas Companies Attracted To Downstream Growth, Longer Global Value-Chains | https://hubs.li/Q02MMT8s0 🔍General Thoughts: We think oil and gas demand will likely stay stronger for longer than many forecasts, helped by chemical market growth, and as appreciation likely grows towards CO2 emissions (not fossil fuels) as the issue. 🔍#SupplyChain / #Commodities: We discuss our takeaways from SINOPEC and PetroChina International business updates that show chemical product export growth and a seemingly lifted focus on global competition amid weak domestic demand. 🔍#Energy / #Upstream: We discuss the ExxonMobil 2050 energy outlook, as it suggests chemical demand will be a significant growth driver of oil demand and the cost benefits of feedstock integrated vs. non-integrated producers. 🔍#Sustainability / #EnergyTransition: We flag Diane Chamberlain being appointed Executive Chairman of Issaquena Green Power a firm striving to create a much-needed high-capacity-factor, low-cost energy solution for industry. 🔍#Downstream / Other #Chemicals: We discuss recent weakness in manufacturer business sentiment and German export markets and why conditions could worsen in 2H24 as other markets target premium European prices. Companies: aramco Rongsheng Petrochemical (Singapore) Pte. Ltd. BHP bp Equinor Woodside Energy TotalEnergies Air Liquide Linde Norges Bank Uniper Dow Commodities: #Ethylene, #Oil, Natural #Gas, #Naphtha, #LNG, #Hydrogen,# Aluminum, #Steel, #Carbon Dioxide, #Methane, #Renewable #Power #CMACC #marketanalysis #marketresearch #consulting #chemicalmarket #oilandgas #upstream #downstream

More Project Cancellations: Direct and Indirect Consequences Emerging | The Hydrogen Economy 61: https://hubs.li/Q02MJqxx0 🔍 Project cancellations, especially those with large write downs, imply lost revenue for those associated with the project – equipment suppliers and engineering companies – compensation is implied in some write downs. 🔍Even if your customer has paid you 25-35% down on equipment orders, you may have little further recourse if projects are delayed or cancelled, leaving you with either finished or unfinished equipment to sell. 🔍Electrolyzer companies are investing heavily to expand capacity, based on longer-term demand forecasts as well as both firm orders for equipment and indicators of interest – project delays or cancellations could prove fatal. 🔍As the industry regroups, we are likely to see interest in equipment suppliers that have focused on cost of ownership – equipment, installation, service, etc. – versus power efficiency. The winners here will get bought. 🔍Otherwise, we look at some very expensive projects in Germany, comment on a more organized Chinese market, discuss the potential weakness in grey ammonia markets, and more power bottlenecks. #hydrogeneconomy #greenhydrogen #bluehydrogen #power #electrolyzers #ammonia #methanol #cmacc

Feedstock Cost Relief Benefits North American Chemical Producers Relative to Europe & Asia; Global Prices Mixed, But Mostly Lower | The Weekly Catalyst - August 26, 2024: https://hubs.li/Q02MyFfq0 🔍 #Polymer Market Trends: Global spot polymer prices were mostly lower in Asia and North America but higher in Europe last week. North American integrated margins held near YTD highs amid feedstock cost relief. 🔍 #Chemical Market Trends: Global base chemical values were more mixed than polymer values WoW, as North America and Europe reflected more weakness, on average, than Asia which has lower margins than both. 🔍 #Feedstock Market Trends: Global chemical feedstock costs benefited North American chemical producers last week, as US natural gas and ethane prices fell relative to crude oil and ex-US naphtha and natural gas prices. 🔍 #Agriculture Market Trends: Crop prices remain weak, as US corn and soybean prices sit at YTD lows, while an uptick in global ammonia prices benefited US producer margins relative to most peers abroad. Companies: NOVA Chemicals Shell Dow LyondellBasell BAYSTAR ExxonMobil Celanese Braskem Nutrien CF Industries LSB Industries, Inc. PETRONAS Chemicals Group Berhad (PCG) Yara International Commodities: #Polyethylene, #Polypropylene, #PolyvinylChloride, #Polystyrene, #Ethylene, #Propylene, #Ethane, #Naphtha, #CrudeOil, #Ammonia, #NaturalGas, #Corn, #Soybeans

We see expanded NGL and ethylene terminal plans, plenty of people ordering new ships, and (the first of) a new round of North American ethylene expansion. A low-cost, lower-carbon export opportunity for the US. By far the most obvious opportunity for the US is to supply very high-cost Europe, but Europe will need to feel very comfortable that the US is there as a friend for the very long term. Hence the concerns around Trump. However, even with the advantage of US hydrocarbon-based inputs, clean or otherwise, Europe still has high costs of moving downstream, and here the threat comes from ever higher quality products from China. https://hubs.li/Q02MsHPp0 Otherwise, we look at the growing LNG market, Kamala Harris’ assertions on competing for AI with China, while we are already failing with hydrogen, and we discuss cancellations in energy transition investments. Companies mentioned: Shintech, Inc. CF Industries Nutrien The Mosaic Company FMC Corporation Navigator Gas Dow Shell Bunge ADM Cargill Ørsted Commodities mentioned: #Ethane, #Propane, #Ethylene, #Naphtha, #NaturalGas, #LNG, #CrudeOil, #Propylene, #Hydrogen, #Ammonia, #Soy, #Corn, #Wheat, #Canola, #Carbon, #Polyethylene, #VCM, #PVC, #SAF, #Efuels #chemicalindustry #plasticsindustry #plasticpackaging #chemicals #petrochemicals #sustainability #cleanenergy #oilandgasindustry #packaging #esginvesting #ESG #energy #manufacturing #materials #energytransition

Daily Chemical Reaction - August 23: Assume The Position! – Cheap US Ethane Spurs Export & Domestic Ethylene Optimism, Capital Flows Will Continue | https://hubs.li/Q02MnPR60 🔍General Thoughts: US #ethane values near YTD lows and at the low end of the 2002-2024 range mean one thing (considering much higher ethylene feedstock costs abroad) – US #ethylene producers are in an enviable position. 🔍#SupplyChain / #Commodities: Canadian rail issues could disrupt Canadian and US polymer markets and allow US PE sellers to argue for near-term contract price support - uncertainty is higher than any volume impacts currently. 🔍#Energy / #Upstream: Recent movements in Brent crude oil prices relative to US natural gas underestimate the global cost advantage seen by North American ethylene producers shown by Ex-US naphtha values relative to US ethane. 🔍#Sustainability / #EnergyTransition: We discuss polymer producer investment in the resin recycling arena to boost sustainable product offerings – the investment is easier among those, such as in the US, with greater FCF to deploy. 🔍#Downstream / Other #Chemicals: We highlight movements in the Chinese yuan relative to the US Dollar, and we compare the total value of Chinese exports to per-unit value trends to show that export volumes remain elevated. Companies: Shintech, Inc. LyondellBasell Dow NOVA Chemicals ExxonMobil Braskem Versalis LOTTE chemical Navigator Gas Enterprise Products OMV Marathon Petroleum Corporation TC Energy Sirmax VW Ford Motor Company Commodities: #Ethylene, #Propylene, #Olefins, #Ethane, #Polyethylene (#PE), #Polypropylene (#PP), #PVC, #Chlorine, #Naphtha, #CrudeOil, #Hydrogen, #Ammonia, #Fuels, #SAF, #Polymers, #RecycledPolymers, #Waste #CMACC #marketanalysis #marketresearch #consulting #chemicalmarket #oilandgas #upstream #downstream

Weekly #Sustainability & #EnergyTransition Report 194: Cancel Culture: Transition Moves from Announced to Cancelled Projects! | https://hubs.li/Q02Mlk0j0 🔍 1st Topic of the Week: What started last year as companies walking back energy transition targets has now progressed to project cancellations and, in some cases, substantial write-downs. Those just walking back targets spoke too soon, and those cancelling spent too soon. Some of the write-downs suggest very hopeful pricing. 🔍 2nd Topic of the Week: The burden of clean production proof sits firmly with project developers, especially in Louisiana. The state has so much history of pollution issues and chemical and oil facilities being co-located with communities that it is right to expect skepticism with any new investment idea – even if it is “clean”.    🔍 Otherwise: We question who is to blame for the move to cap plastic production, we talk about many different carbon initiatives, the further decline in solar module cost without lower power project costs, chasing China, and why lithium investments continue despite the pricing signals. Products Mentioned: #Methanol, #SAF, #Hydrogen, #Plastics, #Ammonia, #Carbon, #Solar, #Wind, #EVs Companies Mentioned: Ørsted Air Products CF Industries LSB Industries, Inc. Summit Carbon Solutions Tesla Subjects Covered: #ESG #Recycling, #Renewables, #CarbonCapture, #Emissions, #NewEnergy, #HydrogenEconomy, #ESGInvesting, #ClimateLitigation, #CleanFuels

Daily Chemical Reaction - August 22: All Along The Watchtower – Cost Position & Integration Gain Focus Amid Globally Embattled Commodity Markets | https://hubs.li/Q02Md1Sj0 🔍General Thoughts: The substantially advantaged US ethylene cost position and recent production issues impacting domestic merchant ethylene supplies favor US ethylene capacity expansions and value-chain integration efforts. 🔍#SupplyChain / #Commodities: We discuss news that Shintech, Inc.is considering investing in a new ethylene production facility on the USGC and an SQM business update that puts forth another bearish lithium price view for 2H24. 🔍#Energy / #Upstream: European natural gas prices are near a YTD high and have increased since 2Q24 relative to US natural gas prices, and we discuss recent weakness in European naphtha prices relative to LPG since May 2024. 🔍#Sustainability / #EnergyTransition: We discuss proposed US production limits on plastics and the mounting challenges facing global power deployments that we think will hinder their ability to keep pace with demand. 🔍#Downstream / Other #Chemicals: We discuss the US housing market and recent weakness in mortgage rates that are yet to spur a surge in mortgage applications and sales - optimism for improvement in 2025 looks broadly high. Companies: Westlake Sasol LOTTE chemical Olin Albemarle Corporation Dow Green Technology Metals EcoPro, New Fortress Energy BYD Ford Motor Company Hystar NextDecade Target Commodities: #Ethylene, #Chlorine, #PVC, #VCM, #EVs, #Lithium, #Wind, #Solar, #Hydrogen, #Fuels, Chlor-Vinyl, #LNG, #Oil, Natural #Gas, #LPG, #Plastic, #Hydrogen, Plastic #Waste, #Biomass, #Solar #Power, #EVs, #Copper #CMACC #marketanalysis #marketresearch #consulting #chemicalmarket #oilandgas #upstream #downstream

Global #Agriculture Monthly Report - August 21: Against the Wind - Crop Price Weakness Disfavors Farm Spending & Sustainable Practices, Favors Biofuel Investment | https://hubs.li/Q02M4kgw0 🔍 General Thoughts: US corn and soybean prices have fallen to YTD lows in August, but soybean values have fallen relative to corn, potentially putting in motion a push that favors more corn plantings and crop-input use next year. 🔍 #SupplyChain / #Crop Inputs: We have held a bearish view of the agriculture economy in 2024, and our 2H24 view remains unchanged, as we see more risk of input-supplier downgrades before a constructive 2025/26 setting develops. 🔍 #Energy / #Biofuels: We think the current benefits flowing to biofuel producers from weak crop prices/inputs favor capacity growth investments. However, for now, we observe many biofuel investments on a net basis on hold or in reverse. 🔍 #Sustainability / #EnergyTransition: We discuss the optimism surrounding low-carbon ammonia market growth, which favors existing producer expansion plans and climate risk likely shifting some crop production to alternate markets. 🔍 #Downstream / Other: We discuss the latest USDA crop market reports, highlighting ample corn and soybean supply amid near record US yield estimates, and we discuss the rise in soy and corn plantings in the US relative to wheat. Companies: CF Industries Nutrien LSB Industries, Inc. Koch FMC Corporation ADM BASF Syngenta The Mosaic Company Nufarm Corteva Agriscience Yara International Gevo, Inc. Fulcrum BioEnergy, OMV Petrom bp American Airlines Shell Ørsted Delek AIG Repsol LanzaTech LanzaJet VARO Energy Summit Carbon Solutions Fertiglobe H2Global POET ATOME Cargill John Deere Bunge Viterra Commodities: #Crops, #Fuels, #Biofuels, #Glyphosate, #Fertilizer, #Carbon Dioxide, #Ammonia, #Corn, #Soybean, #Canola, #Nitrogen, #SAF, #Renewable #Diesel, #Ethanol, #Hydrogen, #E-Fuels, Natural #Gas, #Fuels, #Cereals, #Su...