Federal Reserve Bank of New York

Thinking of pursuing a PhD in economics? Kasey has some tips! https://nyfed.org/4aHfMXZ

In today's post, the second in a two-part series, the authors discuss the consequences of an aggressive policy response to inflation using a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. They find that when facing demand shocks, stabilizing inflation and real activity go hand in hand, with very large benefits for households at the bottom of the wealth distribution. Conversely, when facing supply shocks, stabilizing inflation makes real outcomes more volatile, especially for poorer households. https://nyfed.org/45RAPGv

In remarks delivered at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, President John C. Williams discussed how best to understand r-star, the natural rate of interest, and the factors that affect it. https://nyfed.org/4cqHFoG

Our Corporate Real Estate Function, which is responsible for coordinating, integrating and administering a range of diverse real estate functions to support the safety and resiliency of the Bank’s operations, is currently hiring for a Head of Real Estate Controls & Analytics. This crucial member of the team will collaborate closely with project managers to ensure that projects remain on track, within budget, and on time. This includes budget and cost management, project progress reporting, risk mitigation, and more Senior leaders with proven skills across people management and complex problem management can learn more and apply here: https://bit.ly/3Walrlu

In today's post, the first of a two-part series, the authors discuss the distributional effects of inflation and inflation stabilization through the lens of a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. They find that while inflation hurts everyone, it hurts the poor in particular. When the source of inflation is a supply shock, fighting inflation aggressively hurts the poor even more; however, the opposite is true for demand shocks. https://nyfed.org/3VQz5bO

Join us on July 8 and July 9 for our in-person New York Fed Summer Teacher Institute. Educators from schools in our Second District and from across the country can register to learn how to use economic case studies in the classroom, literacy strategies, and Federal Reserve education opportunities and tools for their students. As a New York State-approved Continuing Teacher and Leader Education sponsor, we can provide hours of Continuing Education/CTLE credit to attendees. Learn more and register: https://nyfed.org/3yjDiaQ

Multivariate Core Trend (MCT) inflation declines to 2.4 percent in May. The 68 percent probability band is (1.9,2.8). https://nyfed.org/3NY8FCh

Since the late 1990s, the U.S. Treasury has issued debt in two main forms: nominal bonds, which provide fixed-cash scheduled payments, and Treasury Inflation Protected Securities—or TIPS—which provide the holder with inflation-protected payments that rise with U.S. inflation. In today's post, the author reviews the theoretical and empirical links between TIPS and Treasury yields and explores whether market perceptions of U.S. sovereign credit risk can help explain their relative valuations. https://nyfed.org/3xR9szA

Each June, our OPEN employee resource network chooses a theme for its internal Pride Month celebrations. This year, the team chose “Reflections of Resiliency.” “As a Business Continuity Specialist, ‘resiliency’ is a term I encounter daily. For us, it means doing everything possible to strengthen the Bank against any possible disruptions, building on all the lessons we learned through our collective experiences,” shared Nina, a member of our Operations & Resiliency Group. “When reflecting on resilience as a Pride Month theme, I think of the pioneers who came before us. The scale at which we celebrate Pride today is due to the efforts of those who fought hard, often without the support of a widespread community. I reflect on their challenges, recognize our privilege, and understand that our current progress is built on their resilient efforts.” #Pride2024

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q2 is 1.9%, with the 50% probability interval at [1.0, 3.0] and the 68% interval at [0.5, 3.4]. The Staff Nowcast is 2.2% for 2024:Q3. https://nyfed.org/3LbPEur