ICE Mortgage Technology reposted this
What a difference a few days make… Mortgage rates fell to 6.48% on Friday according to the ICE U.S. Conforming 30-year Fixed Mortgage Rate Lock Index (LRC30FIX), down nearly 40 bps in just over a week and crossing below 6.5% for the first time since May 2023 with softer 10-year yields this morning providing even a little more easing. As for how this impacts home affordability, it brings some relief to potential homebuyers, who as of July 25th, with mortgage rates at 6.86%, faced a $2,419 mortgage payment on the median priced home when putting 20% down. As of Friday, just 8 short days later, that payment had fallen by $93/mo. (3.8%) to $2,326. If mortgage rates were to fall another 11 bps, it would knock $25 off that monthly bill. While that brings some relief, a median income borrower buying a median priced home at today’s rate would still face a payment-to-income ratio of 34.5% – compared to less than 25% over the past 30 years on average. Looking at the impact on refinance incentive, the drop in mortgage rates also benefits recent homebuyers as well, opening up opportunities for these folks to benefit from a refinance. Last week, 900K mortgage holders moved into the money to refinance, a 60% rise in just a few days. That raises the population of homeowners in the money to refinance (by at least 75bps) to 2.4M, the most there've been since early April 2022. Of those, 850K are highly qualified borrowers, with 720+ credit scores and 80% or lower CTLVs, and can save an average of $366/mo. at today's rates.