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CRYPTO HEADLINES -Despite miners selling, to offset declining revenues from lower Hash Prices, Bitcoin has stayed rangebound as institutional flows increased to counterbalance -Bitcoin and Ethereum with a combined market cap of $1.66 trillion solidify their status as the fastest-growing stores of value in a world of inflating fiat currencies -Rising trading volumes, global ETF adoptions, and increasing Institutional exposure to crypto as a store of value. (Charts Inside) GLOBAL MACRO HEADLINES - In CBO's projections, the US deficit totals nearly $2 trillion this year. - Easing inflation data out of the US, UK and Japan in June - Dropping fertility rates in the top 15 economies poses longer-term threats to growth. 1950-2021 TFR dropped from 4.84 to 2.23. From 2050-2100 it is projected to go from 1.83 to 1.59. - CNBC MARKET SUMMARY 1. A risk-on month as the SP500 rose 3.47%. The CSI300 fell -3.30% as the two diverged this month. 2. An equally weighted crypto basket of BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, BNB and SOL dropped -10.8% for the month. 3. No Asian rates went in the opposite direction to US 10yr rates. 4. The standout movers on the Rates side were KRW 10Yr -31.bps and AUD 10Yr -9.2bps. 5. The standout movers on the FX/Commodity side were EUR/$ -1.24% and OIL 5.64%. 6. The standout mover in Crypto was Binance -4.6%.   #bitcoin, #cryptocurrency, #china, #macro, #machinelearning, #asiapacific, #rates, #fxtrading, #oil, #gold, #dataanalytics, #ai, #hedgefunds, #trading, #markets, #strategy

MARKET SUMMARY 1. A risk-on month as the SP500 rose 4.80%. The CSI300 fell -0.68% as the two diverged this month. 2. An equally weighted crypto basket of BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, BNB and SOL rose 13.8% for the month. 3. China 10Yr went in the opposite direction to US 10yr rates. 4. The standout movers on the Rates side were US 10Yr -18.1bps and China 10Yr 2.2bps. 5. The standout movers on the FX/Commodity side were OIL -5.41% and NZD/$ 4.38%. 6. The standout mover in Crypto was Solana 33.1%. MARKET FACTOR DRIVERS OF SIGNIFICANT DAILY MOVES (Same direction >=67% of the days for the month) 1. S&P 500    - Binance, Ripple, Ethereum, Bitcoin, GOLD. 2. CSI 300    - $/IDR. 3. US 10Yr    - EUR/$, AUD/$, NZD 10Yr, AUD 10Yr, $/IDR, GBP/$, $/SGD, $/CAD, $/THB, $/JPY, $/CNH, NZD/$. 4. EUR/$    - AUD/$, $/SGD, $/CAD, $/THB, NZD/$, US 10Yr, GBP/$, $/KRW, NZD 10Yr, $/IDR, $/CNH. 5. $/CNH    - $/JPY, EUR/JPY, $/IDR, $/SGD, $/THB, US 10Yr, EUR/$, $/KRW, AUD/$. GLOBAL MACRO HEADLINES --"The real GDP growth forecasts for 2024 have been revised up in some major economies. These include the eurozone and the UK, where the initial estimates for first-quarter real GDP growth surprised to the upside. Relatively muted growth rates are forecast for the eurozone and the UK in 2024 at 0.7% and 0.5%, respectively. The growth forecasts for mainland China and Russia also edged higher in May's forecast round. As a result, our global real GDP growth forecast for this year was raised slightly to 2.7% from 2.6%." - S&P Global -S&P Global projected global consumer price inflation at 4.8% for 2024, with upward revisions in the US offset by lower forecasts in mainland China and Brazil. CRYPTO HEADLINES -Robinhood Acquires Bitstamp: Stock-trading app Robinhood acquired global crypto exchange Bitstamp for $200 million, signaling its deeper entry into the cryptocurrency space1. - TechCrunch -Crypto Market Surge: The cryptocurrency market grew by 20% in May 2024, adding over $420 billion to its market capitalization. BitGet, a competing crypto exchange, overtook Binance amid bearish headwinds from ex-CEO Changpeng Zhao’s conviction. - Nasdaq #bitcoin, #cryptocurrency, #china, #macro,#machinelearning, #asiapacific, #rates, #fxtrading, #oil, #gold, #dataanalytics,#ai, #hedgefunds, #trading, #markets, #strategy

MARKET SUMMARY 1. A large risk-off month as the SP500 fell -4.16%. The CSI300 rose 2.37% as the two diverged this month. 2. An equally weighted crypto basket of BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, BNB and SOL dropped -20.1% for the month. 3. The standout movers on the Rates side were China 10Yr 6.bps and AUD 10Yr 53.bps. 4. The standout movers on the FX/Commodity side were OIL -1.88% and $/JPY 4.0%. 5. The standout mover in Crypto was Binance -1.3%. MARKET FACTOR DRIVERS OF SIGNIFICANT DAILY MOVES (Same direction >=67% of the days for the month) 1. S&P 500      - China 10Yr, AUD/JPY. 2. US 10Yr      - $/CAD, $/TWD, GOLD, $/JPY, $/KRW, NZD/$. 3. EUR/$      - $/SGD, $/TWD, $/IDR, $/KRW, NZD/$, GBP/$, AUD/$. 4. $/CNH      - NZD/$, $/IDR, GBP/$, $/INR, AUD/$, $/SGD. GLOBAL MACRO HEADLINES - 3 STRIKES AND YOU ARE OUT was the theme of April. 3rd straight month of hot inflation data was too much for the market to sweep under the rug. - Large risk-off sentiment led to a drop in equities, bonds, crypto and sent money to the relative safety of dollar cash. - As of April 30, 2024, central banks have added 290 metric tons (10 months in a row) to their official holdings. - India's finance minister says that GDP is expected to grow by 8% or more in the first quarter of 2023/24, due to improved inflation management and macroeconomic stability. - Economic Times - March 2024, China's factory data was better than expected, which has increased optimism that the country can reach its growth target for the year. -US deficit stands at $1.064 trillion as of March and is on pace to run at $1.6 trillion for FY 2024. GDP is expected to increase by 2.5% from last year or $ 700 billion. -This implies a further shrinking of organic GDP in 2024 by $1 trillion. Since 2009, the US organic GDP has shrunk by $6.64 trillion.  -Money printing (deficits) will continue to power stores of value (stocks, crypto). CRYPTO HEADLINES -Bitcoin Spot ETF volumes increased but the net flows fell as the coin dropped 15.5% for the month. - Charts Inside -Blackrock and Fidelity ETFs saw the most inflows while Grayscale saw outflows. Fee differentials were the main contributing factor. -Despite falling 15% in April, Bitcoin still ranks 9th among the globally traded assets by AUM. -Asia continues to lead the exchange volumes over other centers by a factor of 10x-20x. -Coinbase in the US, Kraken in Europe, and Binance in Asia captured the highest traffic. -According to data compiled by Farside Investors, the three spot Bitcoin ETFs that launched on April 30 in Hong Kong have attracted a total of $262 million in assets under management (AUM), -Australian Securities Exchange Could Approve Spot-Bitcoin ETFs Before 2024-End: Bloomberg #bitcoin, #cryptocurrency, #china, #macro, #machinelearning, #asiapacific, #rates, #fxtrading, #oil, #gold, #dataanalytics, #ai, #hedgefunds, #trading, #markets, #strategy

Gary Smith proposes the Smith Test, a substitute for the Turing Test: “Present a computer program with a list of statistical correlations, some clearly plausible and others obviously coincidental, and ask the computer to label each as either meaningful or meaningless. When computer #algorithms can do as well as humans on such tests, they might be considered sufficiently competent to make reliable recommendations.”   “Consider this prompt: There is a correlation between the scores of 30 school children on a math test and the scores in 30 soccer matches. Is this statistical relationship most likely meaningful or coincidental?”   “A human would recognize it as inherently meaningless” because “the math scores of 30 individual students and the soccer scores in 30 team matches could not be anything other than coincidence.”   “GPT 3.5’s response: To determine whether the correlation between the math test scores and soccer match scores is meaningful or coincidental, we need more information about the context and the nature of the correlation.” And then provided meaningless details.   “Copilot gave a lengthy explanation of correlation coefficients and then gave this conclusion, which is the essence of the data-mining pitfall, misinterpreting statistical significance as causal evidence: If you find a significant positive or negative correlation between the math test scores and soccer match scores (with r values significantly different from 0), it suggests a meaningful relationship.”   “Gemini concluded that the relationship is most likely coincidental, but justified its conclusion with the assumption that math and soccer abilities require different skills: Coincidental is the most likely scenario. There is very little reason to believe that math test scores and soccer match scores would be meaningfully connected.”   Gary also “posed this question, whose answer is obvious:   “An Independent Party candidate is more likely to be elected President if the election year is evenly divisible by 4. Is this statistical relationship most likely meaningful or coincidental?”   “The statement is literally true because presidential elections are only held in years evenly divisible by 4. None of these LLMs recognized this obvious explanation for the observed statistical relationship. Instead, they regurgitated factoids in the databases they had trained on,” which are described in the article.   The superficial glibness of #LLMs is a wonderful example of the adage that a little knowledge is a dangerous thing. Fortified by extensive training on untold amounts of text, LLMs can regurgitate and repackage superficially compelling answers they do not understand. They still cannot be trusted to give reliable advice or make decisions with important consequences,” and that will not change by the end of 2025.” #technology #innovation #startups #artificialintelligence #hype #ai https://lnkd.in/geF4jFpC

This has the potential for Oil to spike and stay elevated for a while. $120 to $150 target. Will fuel inflation and hit energy importing currencies hard! https://lnkd.in/e5CRCGHX

"The Fed did not have to print $9 trillion to give to the President to spend." - Siegel. Why is Jeremy Siegel blaming the Fed for fiscal policy ?? The Fed controls the monetary policy while the fiscal policy is controlled by the President and Congress. As for the debt issuance, that is done AFTER the spending to maintain interest rates and is NOT the precursor to spending in a fiat economy. 1:55min mark. https://lnkd.in/erEATvxr #CNBC, #monetarypolicy, #fiscalpolicy, #Wharton

Nasdaq drops while Fed Fund futures, Oil futures, and 10r futures rise. And Bitcoin which has been positively correlated to Nasdaq, actually rises. Smells like serious geo-political concerns and nothing to do with Fed speak or jobs number tomorrow. Going into the weekend, this move could be exacerbated on Friday!

MARKET SUMMARY 1. A risk-on month as the SP500 rose 3.10%. The CSI300 rose 0.14% for the month as well. 2. An equally weighted crypto basket of BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, BNB and SOL rose 20.3% for the month. 3. The standout movers on the Rates side were NZD 10Yr -16.3bps and US 10Yr -4.4bps. 4. The standout movers on the FX/Commodity side were NZD/$ -1.86% and GOLD 9.24%. 5. The standout mover in Crypto was Solana 48.7%. MARKET FACTOR DRIVERS OF SIGNIFICANT DAILY MOVES (Same direction >=67% of the days for the month) 1. S&P 500      - $/CAD. 2. US 10Yr      - Solana, AUD 10Yr, NZD 10Yr. 3. EUR/$      - GBP/$, $/THB, AUD/$, $/INR, $/SGD. 4. $/CNH      - $/INR, $/KRW, $/SGD, $/TWD, $/THB, $/IDR, NZD/$, AUD/$. GLOBAL MACRO HEADLINES - S&P Global Market Intelligence revised its global growth forecast for 2024 upward in March. The annual real GDP growth projection increased from 2.3% (at the start of the year) to 2.6%. This upward revision reflects improved growth expectations in several countries, including the US, the UK, and India - Global consumer price inflation in 2024 has been revised slightly upward to 4.8%. While this is a decline from the 2023 annual average of 5.7%, disinflation has become more uneven in recent months. - New home prices in China rose at the fastest pace in more than two and a half years. - Reuters - The finance minister says that India's GDP is expected to grow by 8% or more in the first quarter of 2023/24, due to improved inflation management and macroeconomic stability. - Economic Times -Since 2009, the US GDP has risen $12.9 trillion, while the deficit has grown by $19.54 trillion. Implying that organic GDP has Shrunk by $6.64 trillion.  Cannot see this trend changing as it would be political suicide to see a large drop in GDP if the money printing stops. Money printing (deficits) will continue to power stores of value (stocks, crypto). CRYPTO HEADLINES -Bitcoin Spot ETF volumes increased and the net flows were positive for the month as the coin rallied 15.4% for the month. - Charts Inside -Blackrock and Fidelity ETFs saw the most inflows while Grayscale saw outflows. Fee differentials were the main contributing factor. -Bitcoin now ranks 9th among the globally traded assets by AUM. -March saw a large jump in crypto exchange volumes in all global centers, though the volumes remain well below the highs set in 2021. -Asia continues to lead the exchange volumes over other centers by a factor of 10x-20x. -Coinbase in the US, Kraken in Europe and Binance in Asia captured the highest traffic. -The world’s largest pension fund explores bitcoin as an investment. Japan’s government pension fund said it is requesting information on “illiquidity assets” such as bitcoin as part of research into potential new investments. - CNBC #bitcoin #cryptocurrency #china #macro #machinelearning #asiapacific #rates #fxtrading #oil #gold #dataanalytics #ai #hedgefunds #trading #markets #strategy

Aren't Quantum walks better than widely accepted Random walks, in capturing market price behaviour? 1. Random Walks vs. Quantum Walks: Random Walk: Represented by a Markov chain with a state space (positions) and a transition matrix (P). P(x, y) denotes the probability of transitioning from state x to state y in one step. The probability distribution after n steps can be calculated as s^(n+1) = P * s^n, where s is the initial state vector, leading to a Gaussian distribution for large n Quantum Walk: Defined in a Hilbert space, which combines the position and spin state of the particle. The state of the particle is a complex vector (ket vector) representing a superposition of all possible positions. Coin Operator (C): A unitary operator acting on the spin state, determining the "direction" (up/down) for the conditional shift. The Hadamard gate (H) is a common choice for a fair coin. Conditional Shift Operator (S): Another unitary operator that performs a shift in position (+1 for up spin, -1 for down spin) based on the particle's spin state. 2. Mathematical Framework: The evolution of a quantum walk after one step can be described by a unitary operator U = S(C ⊗ I), where: U: Overall unitary operator for the quantum walk step. S: Conditional shift operator. C: Coin operator. ⊗: Tensor product (combines spin and position states). I: Identity operator (acts trivially on the position state). 3. Impact of Interference: Due to superposition, the probability of finding the particle in a specific position is obtained by calculating the squared absolute value of the corresponding element in the state vector after applying U multiple times. This can lead to interference effects: Constructive Interference: When amplitudes from different paths add up, enhancing the probability of finding the particle in specific positions. Destructive Interference: When amplitudes from different paths cancel each other out, reducing the probability of finding the particle in specific positions. These interference effects cause the probability distribution of a quantum walk to deviate significantly from the Gaussian distribution of a classical random walk. 4. Faster Spreading: Exhibit ballistic spreading, meaning the expected distance from the origin grows quadratically with the number of steps (∝ N) compared to the classical walk's square root dependence (∝ √N). This faster spreading arises due to the ability of the particle to explore multiple paths simultaneously through superposition. Holi Sale - Use Coupon Code "QIHOLI30" to get 30% off on all our Products and services, Check out Quant Insider Stack - https://lnkd.in/gcfdUEfg A Bundle of Interview Byte(500+ questions), Quantopia Library, and Quant Insider Project Handbook with Bonus Resources. Quantopia Library for building your domain knowledge and technical skills- (https://lnkd.in/geThBB4d) Quant Insider Project Handbook has 10 industry-oriented projects  (https://lnkd.in/gWBEn78U)

MARKET SUMMARY 1. First time, since Sep2023, the CSI300 (+ 9.35%) beat the SP500 (+ 5.17%). 2. An equally weighted crypto basket of BTC, ETH, ADA, XRP, BNB and SOL rose 34.4% for the month. 3. China 10Yr went in the opposite direction to US 10yr rates. 4. The standout movers on the Rates side were China 10Yr -7.6bps and US 10Yr 34.bps. 5. The standout movers on the FX/Commodity side were $/CAD -1.02% and OIL 3.56%. 6. The standout mover in Crypto was Ethereum 47.1%. GLOBAL MACRO HEADLINES -Since 2009, the US GDP has risen $12.9 trillion, while the deficit has grown by $19.54 trillion. Implying that organic GDP has Shrunk by $6.64 trillion.  Cannot see this trend changing as it would be political suicide to see a large drop in GDP if the money printing stops. Money printing (deficits) will continue to power stores of value (Stocks, PE, Crypto, Real Estate). -Chinese stocks saw a large boost from strong retail spending during the Chinese lunar year and the PBOC stimulus package which included lower RRR, lower mortgage rates, and lower reserve requirements. This could lead to an unwind of what has been a very profitable trade in the markets (long MAG7, short China). -The World is in for Another China Shock. - China is flooding foreign markets with cheap goods again. this should lead to a large downward pressure on inflation. - WSJ CRYPTO HEADLINES -Multiple factors drove the massive rally in crypto in Feb. 1. Upcoming halving (mid-April) 2. The rise in bitcoin seems to be triggered, in part, by a rumor that Microsoft Corp (NASDAQ:MSFT) will start supporting bitcoin in its products. - The Arora Report 3. There is no resistance for bitcoin between here and $69,000. -Feb 28 saw the highest flows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. Blackrock and Fidelity are attracting the most capital, at the expense of Grayscale which has egregious fees. - Bitcoin ETF volumes, and net flows continue to rise and On-Chain activity in Bitcoin and Ethereum is starting to rise again. (Charts inside). #bitcoin #cryptocurrency #china #macro #machinelearning #asiapacific #rates #fxtrading #oil #gold #dataanalytics #ai #hedgefunds #trading #markets #strategy