Running Point

💲NVIDIA reports earnings on Wednesday 8/28/2024, after market close—stay tuned! 👩🏽💻Nvidia’s #outlook signals tech’s outlook; and tech’s outlook signals the broad economic and corporate outlook. 💡Seems that investors, portfolio managers, and market pundits are more apprehensive about #Nvidia’s earnings than they were about Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech last Friday because of Nvidia’s interconnection— through chips and generative AI— with most businesses. 🙋🏽♂️How are customers responding to delays in Nvidia's Blackwell GPU and what will be the impact on data center projections? 🙋🏽♀️Will Nvidia announce layoffs or rightsizing of its workforce ? 🙋🏽♂️Will there be any new #innovation announcements or updates on the RTX 50 series and RTX-supported games? 🙋🏽♀️Was the recent increase in insider trading activity predictive? 📰Reuters and Forbes quoted us regarding expectations for Nvidia in an article by Arsheeya Bajwa, "Nvidia second-quarter sales likely to double, even a slight miss may hurt shares." Also cited was Daniel Morgan at Synovus Trust and Jensen Huang, Founder and CEO of Nvidia. QUOTED EXCERPT For the past three quarters, Nvidia's growth exceeded 200%. "We're reaching the law of large numbers here, once a company gets to a certain size, it just physically can't keep up the same growth," said Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital. ~~ "We are your #familyoffice" #investments #tech #stocks #future #PPLI #taxplanning ~~ Disclosure: The opinions expressed are those of Running Point Capital Advisors, LLC (Running Point) and are subject to change without notice. This is not investment advice and this is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Running Point is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Running Point’s investment advisory services and fees can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. RP-24-133

Running Point was quoted by U.S. News & World Report in an article — by reporter Tony Dong, MSc, CETF®, “9 Best ETFs to Buy for a Recession” — regarding our thoughts on the consumer staple, healthcare, and utility equity sectors. Also quoted were Mark Andraos, CFA, CFP® at Regency Wealth Management; Dan Tolomay, CFA at Trust Company of the South; and Nick Kalivas at Invesco. QUOTED EXCERPTS #Utilities Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLU) "Utilities are considered defensive stocks because they operate in regulated markets, exhibit low price volatility and their services are essential, making them less vulnerable to economic downturns," says Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer at Running Point Capital Advisors. An easy way to access utility stocks is via XLU, which tracks 31 of the largest ones found in the S&P 500 for a 0.09% expense ratio and an above-average 2.9% 30-day SEC yield. "The sector benefits from the 'flight to safety' phenomenon as investors shift away from riskier or cyclical assets," Schulman notes. #Vanguard #Consumer #Staples ETF (VDC) "Consumer staple stocks tend to hold up better than cyclical or growth-dependent businesses during recessions because these companies sell products that people need regardless of the economic climate – think toilet paper, toothpaste, food and basic household items," Schulman says. For a 0.1% expense ratio, VDC holds blue-chip companies such as Procter & Gamble Co. (PG), Coca-Cola Co. (KO) and Walmart Inc. (WMT). "Many consumer staples have built strong brands over decades that can help maintain sales volumes and pricing power even when budgets are tight," Schulman says. #iShares #Global #Healthcare ETF (IXJ) "Many health care companies offer essential goods and services, from pharmaceuticals to medical devices, which are non-discretionary expenses for consumers," Schulman explains. "The aging population in the U.S. (and most other developed countries) also contributes to sustained demand." ~~ "We are your #familyoffice" investments #stocks #alternatives #PPLI #taxplanning https://lnkd.in/gn89V-2t ~~ Disclosure: The opinions expressed are those of Running Point Capital Advisors, LLC (Running Point) and are subject to change without notice. This is not investment advice and this is not a recommendation to buy or sell a security. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Running Point is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Running Point’s investment advisory services and fees can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. RP-24-132

🎙 My interview with Michael Ashley Schulman, CFA, Chief Investment Officer at Running Point, on the tax benefits of investing in early stage venture, manager selection across private asset classes, and risks/benefits of investing in spinout managers.   #VentureCapital #VC #Startups #OpenLP Turpentine 10X Capital Link to Podcast in Comments Below 👇

"I believe I heard a collective sigh of relief across Wall Street as many investors and analysts were nervous about NVIDIA and the entire #tech center ahead of this announcement," said Michael Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital. 📰We were quoted by Reuters this afternoon—following #Nvidia's release of first quarter #earnings and #future projections—in an article by Caroline Valetkevitch and Arsheeya Bajwa. 🦅SUMMARY: Nvidia's #AI ambitions continue to soar, but restrictions on sales to #China and ‘in-house” chip competition from its own customers hangs over its future. 📈After four consecutive quarters of earnings that blew past Wall Street analyst estimates, Nvidia just flexed its muscles again, delivering solid Q1 sales and Q2 projections that outpaced expectations. From fiscal 2020 to 2024, Nvidia nearly 6x revenues to $61B while nearly 9x earnings to nearly $13 per share. That frantic growth does not have to be maintained, but investors still want to see market leading growth from this $2.3 trillion behemoth. 🪓Their announced ten-for-one stock split and increased dividend should also be a huge positive rally catalyst for the stock in afterhours trading and over the next several days. 🐂#AI_chip_demand_begets_more_AI_chip_demand: Management’s second quarter revenue projections bested estimates by an incredible $1.2 billion. This bullish performance indicates longevity of demand for chips that can process large language models (#LLMs) and #generativeAI. The forecast indicates that we are still early in the cycle, that AI chip demand begets more AI chip demand, and that their chips that help data-centers, chatbots, crypto-miners, AI, and other cutting-edge tools are a hot commodity; the main risk would be if for some reason #TSMC is not able to meet Nvidia’s production demand. 🏏The generative AI and LLM rally that has propelled the tech center may continue a while longer, especially since we are in the early innings of utilization across industries and corporations across the globe. It is interesting that cloud customers have fallen to less than 50% of revenues which may indicate that #chip demand is broadening across customers. ⚖Nvidia's recent GTC 2024 conference showcased their ambition to become a one-stop shop for building AI infrastructure. Their new #Blackwell platform and expanding software offerings strengthen their position, and improved switch performance could keep their networking business humming. However, recent restrictions by the US on sales of certain chips to China, while not a major short-term blow, dampens their long-term prospects in this critical market, and ‘in-house” chip competition from current customers like Alphabet Inc. and Apple hangs over its future. https://lnkd.in/gEBvwf57

Huge thank you’s to Spearhead Administrative Services, the #insurance carriers—Prudential Financial, Investors Preferred, and Axcelus Financial—and all the other sponsors for an insightful private placement life insurance (#PPLI) and private placement variable annuity (#PPVA) event. Over 120 industry partners and peers joined the 2-day, Second Annual Spearhead Southern California #PPLI & #PPVA Forum this past Tuesday and Wednesday in Manhattan Beach, CA—the largest ever such dedicated gathering on the west coast. 💡Wednesday morning began with warm introductions from Spearhead’s Ken Foley and an informative, entertaining, and memorable continuing-ed discussion by Spearhead’s David C. Reynolds, CFP®, CLU® and Running Point’s very own Jim Schlager on generating structural #alpha using PPLI & PPVA 💡Split sessions on case studies and utilization of synthetic PPLI were led by Daniel Davies, CLU and Jonathan Donfeld as well as Travis Burke, TEP, CFP®, and Anthony Stanek 💡I spoke on a managed separate account panel alongside and shared best practices and one-on-one discussion time with our knowledgeable moderator 🎙Travis Burke and leading industry professionals 🎙Ben Durrant, 🎙Robert D. Amoruso, 🎙Rory Wilfork. We discussed key trends in the marketplace and effective account implementation and management 💡The insightful Insurance Dedicated Funds ("IDFs") panel was deftly moderated by Daniel Davies, CLU, and included Josh Chmara of Neuberger Berman, Rick Moreno of Apollo, Russell Jeffrey of Global Strategic Risk Management, and Robert Klein of Clarion Capital Partners 💡The extremely informative Estate Planning panel was expertly moderated by Anthony Stanek and included Jay Judas, Nikki Pethtel, Robert Strauss, and Paul Sczudlo Also connected with old friends and new acquaintances such as Jane Riley (The Leaders Group), Matthew J. Floit (Charles Schwab), Molly Conway, CFA, Bridget Kilroy, Catherine Rhee, Natalie Ross, Sakura Moriuchi, Samita Malik, Tyler VanZandt, CFA, Michael Wolman, Matthew Jones, CFA, Darren Galloway, Jim Roberson, Jeff Helsing, Jake Weiner, Dennis McMahan, Ben Rainey, Shang Chou, CQF, Casey Rehling, Lily Richards, Kenneth Masters, CFA, CLU, ChFC, AEP, Andre Kovensky, David Lohrey, George Alexander, Sandy Geyelin, and many others. Special appreciation to the enthusiastic support of the entire Running Point team, including Bo Hatakayama, Liz deSousa, Susan Lash, Daniel Israeli, Tony, Diaz, Tome Baldocchi, Daniel Kerr, and Franklin Lee. #RIA #UHNWI #estateplanning #wealthmanagement #taxplanning

📰Reuters quoted us yesterday afternoon regarding AMAT's #earnings, #outlook, and aftermarket share-price reaction in an article by Jaspreet Singh titled, "Applied Materials' third-quarter forecast disappoints investors, shares fall." 👩🏽💻Applied Materials stock reported earnings and outlook yeasterday after market close. #AMAT is up over 32% year-to-date, more than 3x the #NASDAQ 100 (#QQQ) and just under 3x the S&P 500, thus expectations for it were high and aftermarket short-term investors nudged the share price down because they were looking for a more solid beat and outlook; yet even so, shares were still priced higher than they were on Monday and Tuesday as well as the month prior to that➡i.e.,overall things still look good. ⚙The aftermarket crowd seemed to be pushing the price down more than deserved. With results beating expectations, we predicted that if the general market opened up on Friday there was a good chance that the stock recover some of its overnight drop➡which it did and then some. 📈What created reluctance amongst traders was the wide third quarter forecast range management gave of adjusted earnings per share for the third quarter of $1.83 to $2.19; that nearly 40 cent window creates short-term negative uncertainty for the semiconductor equipment company➡but it doesn't derail the thesis of increased computer chip demand. QUOTED EXCERPT: 💡"Investors are nudging the share price down because they were looking for a more solid beat and outlook," Michael Ashley Schulman, chief investment officer at Running Point Capital said, adding that the results do not knock "the wind out of a #semiconductor #chip recovery theme". "Les #investisseurs font baisser le prix de l'action parce qu'ils attendaient un résultat et des #perspectives plus solides", a déclaré Michael Ashley Schulman, directeur des #investissements chez Running Point Capital, ajoutant que les #résultats ne remettaient pas en cause "le #thème de la reprise des puces à semi-conducteurs". #future #uhnwi #multifamilyoffice ~~ "We deliver custom investment solutions, family office services, innovations, and unique perspectives to you and your family—we are your family office—you can emphasize your enjoyments, priorities, and legacy.” ~~ Disclosure: The opinions expressed are those of Running Point Capital Advisors, LLC (Running Point) and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Running Point is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Running Point’s investment advisory services and fees can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. RP-24-78

"Bank turnarounds often take years not weeks." "Investors will want a clearer picture of NYCB's underlying credit quality and capital adequacy while determining future earnings power." We were quoted this morning by Reuters—in an article by Niket Nishant and Manya Saini, "NYCB faces tough choices on CRE loans, balance sheet diversification"—regarding whether the New York Community Bank (NYCB) will struggle to find buyers for their loan book, particularly their office and multifamily real estate debt, which they have to reduce to satisfy shareholders. Also quoted in the article were Brian Graham of Klaros Group, Brian Mulberry at Zacks Investment Management, and Anthony Di Tomasso of Fitch Ratings. Opinion: 🏦#NYCB won’t be hard pressed to find bidders for its loan book—there are numerous funds looking for distressed sales—however the #bank may struggle to achieve an advantageous valuation for its #CRE and #multifamily #debt. Investors expect office #loans to go bad and sell at discounted valuations; it is now a question of how cheap?   💡A key #indicator to observe is any change in the bank's reserves set aside for future real estate loan losses driven by vacancies and higher for longer refinancing rates. The market could react negatively to a reserve level that seems too low and flaunts perceived risks or conversely an amount much higher than expected. Its recent $1 billion cash infusion has given it room to maneuver, but not to ignore reality.   📊A large negative factor for NYCB is something they can’t control: general expectations for future #interestrates. Three months ago, when NYCB began its precipitous share price decline, most investors expected the #Fed to start lowering interest rates soon, extending a life line to troubled real estate holdings and banks like NYCB. The economic hangover is that Fed rates are not on a path to decline as quickly as previously expected. This will make it harder for real estate debt to refinance and for banks to extend and pretend on their loans, lowering the expected value of the loans on their books, and further stressing capital ratios. 🙈Investors and depositors will react poorly if they perceive the Board and C-suite as not doing enough and that would catalyze a further drop in share price and deposits. What is happening at NYCB should be a warning sign to any other regional banks that are top heavy on poorly financed office and multifamily real estate loans. 📉It was less than 12 months ago that the bank sold over 39 million shares at $10.08 per share and that has not gone well so far. NYCB, which swallowed Signature Bank, has followed a very different path from First Citizens Bank which took over all the deposits and loans of #SVB. Additionally, Signature private banking teams that came over with the acquisition last year are departing NYCB and adding to its management strain and loss of depositors.

Do you see artificial intelligence (#AI) as a threat or opportunity for people replacement or enhancement? Fortune quoted us—in an article by Sydney Lake, "Junior analysts, beware: Your coveted and cushy entry-level Wall Street jobs may soon be eliminated by AI"—regarding Wall Street using AI to replace incoming ranks🤼 🚪Getting your first foot in the door on Wall Street has become more competitive; and so it will be for other industries too! QUOTED ARTICLE EXCERPTS: Entry-level Wall Street jobs will only get more competitive Longtime industry workers have already seen AI technologies implemented at their places of work to answer financial, risk, and litigation questions, Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and chief investment officer with financial services firm Running Point Capital Advisors, tells Fortune. Schulman, previously served as a vice president at Deutsche Bank, which was named in The New York Times report about AI replacing entry-level #WallStreet jobs. Schulman, predicts AI won’t necessarily take all entry-level Wall Street jobs away, but the technology will fundamentally redefine the role. “In its current state, AI won't eliminate entry-level Wall Street jobs, but it will reduce the number of heads required to accomplish the same task," Schulman, says. “The entry-level job may transition from being a data gatherer to being a data checker, ensuring the AI didn't miss anything or digging deeper into nuggets uncovered.” In turn, #future Wall Street workers will “look a little more like computer, statistics, and data science majors,” he says. “Although creativity, business, and economic sense will still matter.” It will take a “keen understanding of what makes businesses tick” in order for these workers to rise to the top of their incoming Wall Street analyst classes, and ultimately climb the ranks. ALSO CITED IN THE ARTICLE WERE: 💡Christoph Rabenseifner, chief strategy officer for technology, data, and innovation at Deutsche Bank 💡Prof Tim Bates, professor of practice at the University of Michigan-Flint College of Innovation & Technology and Technology  💡Michelle Enjoli, career coach, TED speaker,and digital marketer #generativeAI #career #jobs #outlook #tech #wealthmanagement #artificialintelligence ~~ Disclosure: The opinions expressed are those of Running Point Capital Advisors, LLC (Running Point) and are subject to change without notice. The opinions referenced are as of the date of publication, may be modified due to changes in the market or economic conditions, and may not necessarily come to pass. Past performance is not indicative of future results. Forward-looking statements cannot be guaranteed. Running Point is an investment adviser registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. More information about Running Point’s investment advisory services and fees can be found in its Form ADV Part 2, which is available upon request. RP-24-63

Shares of British commodities broker Marex Group rose 2.6% on Thursday in their market debut on the Nasdaq, notching a valuation of $1.38 billion. The lukewarm debut of the London-based company was in contrast with recent strong listings on U.S. stock exchanges, underscoring that investors remain picky amid a tough economy as hotter inflation keeps interest rates elevated. with Arasu Kannagi B. for Reuters #marex #commodities #britain #nasdaq