STOA Capital

🐉 It's all in-house: ▫ We handle your modeling ▫ We handle your underwrite ▫ We handle your go-to-market ▫ We handle your financial structuring Curious how to get capital for your real estate deals? Look back up — it's all in-house. stoacap.com -- #commercialrealestate #realestate #capitalmarkets #structuredfinance #newyorkcity #newyorkrealestate #philadelphia #philadelphiarealestate #multifamily #netlease #development #stoacapital #avlvarchitecture #avlvdevelopment

🚨 Industry Update: Ready Capital and Arbor Realty Trust face significant challenges as they navigate late-cycle stresses in the multifamily sector. Ready Capital reported a staggering 284% increase in delinquencies across their $6.6 billion bridge loan portfolio. 🔄 Market Cycle: Expansion ➡ Peak ➡ Contraction ➡ Trough Somewhere between a market's Expansion and Peak, it experiences the "late-cycle." At this point, asset prices reach a zenith, interest rates feel topped out, economic growth slows, and inflation is felt. We can expect these groups to divest these portfolios as quickly as possible, to cut sunk costs and recoup some of that capital for re-deployment as we enter a slight Contraction / Correction. ⁉ What are your thoughts on the current state of the multifamily sector? Have you noticed similar trends? via Jack Arevalo -- #commercialrealestate #realestate #capitalmarkets #structuredfinance #newyorkcity #newyorkrealestate #philadelphia #philadelphiarealestate #multifamily #netlease #development #stoacapital #avlvarchitecture #avlvdevelopment https://lnkd.in/eDeDrPcs

🚨 Industry Update: Ready Capital and Arbor Realty Trust face significant challenges as they navigate late-cycle stresses in the multifamily sector. Ready Capital reported a staggering 284% increase in delinquencies across their $6.6 billion bridge loan portfolio. 🔄 Market Cycle: Expansion ➡ Peak ➡ Contraction ➡ Trough Somewhere between a market's Expansion and Peak, it experiences the "late-cycle." At this point, asset prices reach a zenith, interest rates feel topped out, economic growth slows, and inflation is felt. We can expect these groups to divest these portfolios as quickly as possible, to cut sunk costs and recoup some of that capital for re-deployment as we enter a slight Contraction / Correction. ⁉ What are your thoughts on the current state of the multifamily sector? Have you noticed similar trends? -- AVLV Architecture & Development STOA Capital #commercialrealestate #realestate #capitalmarkets #structuredfinance #newyorkcity #newyorkrealestate #philadelphia #philadelphiarealestate #multifamily #netlease #development #stoacapital #avlvarchitecture #avlvdevelopment https://lnkd.in/erAN5mD8

Not the #Fed outcome we recommended, but the #Fed outcome we expected. They remain firm on attacking #inflation. Powell didn't use the typical 2.6% number today, but rather, stated the committee remains aggressive on "getting closer to that 2% marker." I find that still to be a somewhat whimsical target, but it's consistent with the policy of the past 2 years. Tightening is being slowed, explicitly. Regardless, fixed income markets have already priced in 10 bps of correction. I expect more of that as we get closer to what the Fed desires. via Jack Arevalo -- #commercialrealestate #realestate #capitalmarkets #structuredfinance #newyorkcity #newyorkrealestate #philadelphia #philadelphiarealestate #multifamily #netlease #development #stoacapital

Fed meeting coming tomorrow/Wednesday. Treasuries have already tempered themselves coming into this week. Expect the committee to show greater expectations of rate cuts, over whatever time frame is described. And from there, more tempering will follow. via Jack Arevalo -- #commercialrealestate #realestate #capitalmarkets #structuredfinance #newyorkcity #newyorkrealestate #philadelphia #philadelphiarealestate #multifamily #netlease #development #stoacapital

GDP growth isn't where it should be. The recent U.S. economic update showed #GDP growth at 1.6%, falling short of the expected 2.4%, alongside persistent #inflation. This led to bond and stock market declines. However, consumer spending, particularly in #services, remained strong, indicating domestic resilience. Now, remember the terms here (GDP, inflation) and where they should float with respect to each other. GDP growth typically outpacing inflation is a common expectation. This indicates expanding economic activity without a corresponding rise in #prices. We aren't achieving that. No worries. Not significant. Back to the original statement saying, "services remained strong indicating domestic resilience." Service, of all kind, is the dominant driver for U.S. #production (and world production) and tends to remain stable, regardless of circumstance. It's been our strong suit for more than 50 years. We would do well with subtle downward pressure on #interest rates. It's safe to admit that big checks from deep-pocketed institutions have promulgated positive market activity, but the market is somewhat soft for the standard consumer. While there's no trauma being experienced, there seems to be a bit of inefficiency. Lowering the cost of #capital would give us wider consumption — and do a bit of good. We can do this and continue to monitor PCE, employment, and geo-politics. Real estate activity is active. Architecture activity is active. Keeping the ship upright for so long, fiscally speaking, will pay dividends when things turn. We're excited to see the result. via Jack Arevalo -- #commercialrealestate #realestate #capitalmarkets #structuredfinance #newyorkcity #newyorkrealestate #philadelphia #philadelphiarealestate #multifamily #netlease #development #stoacapital

The recent string of lackluster U.S. #Treasury auctions is stirring up worries about the market's ability to handle the surging government debt. With inflation concerns lingering and the Federal Reserve showing no signs of budging on #interest rates, investors are feeling pressure. The 10-year Treasury yield, the barometer for #borrowing rates, is hovering near 4.6%, keeping everyone on edge. As the government gears up to push another $386 billion in #bonds in May and deficits keep climbing, the atmosphere is tense. While the #Fed might ease up on reducing its bond holdings to cushion prices, global investors, hungry for safety and returns, are still eyeing U.S. Treasuries. But if #inflation sticks around, we might be in for a wild ride, as seen by the recent yield surge triggered by disappointing auctions and a sizzling CPI report. And again, inflation readings have been anything but par. Take a report. -- #avlv #sustainable #architecture #development #realestate #sustainablearchitecture #sustainabledevelopment #sustainablerealestate #commercialrealestate #capitalmarkets #structuredfinance #newyorkrealestate #philadelphiarealestate #stoacapital https://lnkd.in/eEktDnDj

Despite the Federal Reserve's assurances of impending interest rate cuts, U.S. Treasury yields persistently rise, defying market expectations. They're stuck. This unexpected surge is fueled by stubborn inflation and robust economic growth, prompting analysts to reevaluate their projections. As speculation mounts and uncertainty looms, investors grapple with climbing mortgage rates and borrowing costs, while simultaneously coming to grips with divergent outlooks on future Treasury yields. Tuesday's BUILDING INDUSTRY ASSOCIATION OF PHILADELPHIA meeting hosted by Zarwin Baum involved numerous relevant parties in PHL: developers, brokers, and lenders of various sorts. CPACE lenders, Regional Bank officers, CMBS officers, and more shared their opinions and gave reason to their recent shortcomings. Refinances are being held to high, contemporary standards and need to meet stress tests at 8%. Construction loans are being accepted at few-and-far-between. And the scrutiny of borrower profiles remains. Good deals exist at the ends of the spectrum. Low cost-basis residential plays in burgeoning markets can still be looked at favorably, though the larger mixed developments tend to continue to get the nod. We're still finding the former in our target neighborhoods. Stay in touch as we get these builds done and done the right way! .⁠ .⁠ .⁠ Jonathan Wallace Sam Turner Josh Gibbons Chris Porto #avlv #sustainable #architecture #development #realestate #sustainablearchitecture #sustainabledevelopment #sustainablerealestate https://lnkd.in/e3tQiYhV

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