Colin Gannon

In recent years, climate change has caused wildfires across the globe to generally become larger and more severe, creating new challenges for public health, housing and infrastructure, and natural resource management. As the characteristics of wildfires change, it is critical to understand where emerging risks for human and natural systems are most profound. We assess how future wildfire potential, defined here as the meteorological conditions and the availability of burnable vegetation types… Show more

In recent years, climate change has caused wildfires across the globe to generally become larger and more severe, creating new challenges for public health, housing and infrastructure, and natural resource management. As the characteristics of wildfires change, it is critical to understand where emerging risks for human and natural systems are most profound. We assess how future wildfire potential, defined here as the meteorological conditions and the availability of burnable vegetation types conducive to wildfire occurrence, are projected to change in the future. To achieve this, we combine modelled temperature and precipitation to calculate the Keetch-Byram Drought Index (KBDI) as a proxy for soil moisture deficit and overlay a weighting factor representing burnable vegetation derived from land cover classifications. Through our analysis of daily data at both mid- and end-of-century, we find that climate-related changes, such as increasing temperatures and drying patterns, will elevate wildfire potential globally, both in terms of severity of maximum daily KBDI and frequency of high KBDI days. We find that regions which have recently endured major fire events, including the western United States, Australia, and the Amazon, could experience increases in maximum KBDI of up to 100 in places, with more than 60 additional days of high KBDI by mid-century, compared to the historical baseline. Additionally, at the end-of-the-century, regions across much of Africa, Central America, and Southern Asia are projected to emerge as wildfire hotspots. While the occurrence of wildfires may still be rare today in many regions, we find that climatological trends are projected to increase wildfire potential for much of the globe, creating new risks for some, and raising the challenge for already wildfire-prone communities to effectively manage forests and protect people and critical resources. Show less

A primer to inform the use of climate data in financial institutions, businesses and governments.

A white-paper evaluating the climatology, climate variability, and projected near-term climate change of Zambia. This project, carried out in conjunction with the Red Cross/Red Crescent Climate Centre and UK Met Office Hadley Centre, also outlines the impact of climate change on various sectors of Zambian society, with specific emphasis on human health, agriculture, energy, and infrastructure.

The Middle Miocene Climate Optimum was a unique warming period in the Earth’s geologic history, when a high global mean annual temperature was accompanied by a relatively low global CO2 concentration. Hydrogen isotopic signals (specifically molecular δD, the ratio of deuterium to hydrogen) from lipids of fossils and sediments offer intrinsic insights into precipitation of ancient climates. Using samples collected from known Middle Miocene deposits, we measured δD of n-alkanes extracted from… Show more

The Middle Miocene Climate Optimum was a unique warming period in the Earth’s geologic history, when a high global mean annual temperature was accompanied by a relatively low global CO2 concentration. Hydrogen isotopic signals (specifically molecular δD, the ratio of deuterium to hydrogen) from lipids of fossils and sediments offer intrinsic insights into precipitation of ancient climates. Using samples collected from known Middle Miocene deposits, we measured δD of n-alkanes extracted from well-preserved plant and sediment samples from varying latitudes across the Northern Hemisphere, and then analyzed the data through a zonally averaged precipitation and evaporation climate model. The reduced latitudinal temperature gradient with warm polar regions during the Middle Miocene was also contrarily coupled with a small variance in latitudinal meteoric water composition and precipitation. With our latitudinally variant sample locations (ranging from 24°N in Xiangfeng, China, to 74°N in Banks Island, Canada), we developed a one-dimensional model in which we assessed evaporation and precipitation gradients throughout the Northern Hemisphere. Ultimately, we used the latitudinal distribution of δD to better constrain the atmospheric conditions during the Middle Miocene Climatic Optimum. Show less