Giovanni Malloy, PhD

The risk of infectious disease transmission, including COVID-19, is disproportionately high in correctional facilities.

We used machine learning methods with data collected from 24 prison facilities in the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections to determine which sources of data best predict a coming COVID-19 outbreak in a prison facility.

Key predictors included county-level measures of COVID-19, facility population, and the test positivity rate in a facility.

Fortifying… Show more

The risk of infectious disease transmission, including COVID-19, is disproportionately high in correctional facilities.

We used machine learning methods with data collected from 24 prison facilities in the Pennsylvania Department of Corrections to determine which sources of data best predict a coming COVID-19 outbreak in a prison facility.

Key predictors included county-level measures of COVID-19, facility population, and the test positivity rate in a facility.

Fortifying correctional facilities with the ability to monitor local community rates of infection (e.g., though improved interagency collaboration and data sharing) along with continued testing of incarcerated people and staff can help correctional facilities better predict—and respond to—future infectious disease outbreaks. Show less

Following the seminal work of Wassily Leontief, input-output analysis has been used to study the impact of one sector's outputs on the inputs to other sectors. With its computational advantages and breadth of application, input-output analysis widely used to study the impact of sectoral shocks ranging in source international, to environmental, to security. Advances in data collection make increasingly clear the role of firm-level shocks and their aggregate impacts. We contribute an approach… Show more

Following the seminal work of Wassily Leontief, input-output analysis has been used to study the impact of one sector's outputs on the inputs to other sectors. With its computational advantages and breadth of application, input-output analysis widely used to study the impact of sectoral shocks ranging in source international, to environmental, to security. Advances in data collection make increasingly clear the role of firm-level shocks and their aggregate impacts. We contribute an approach that uses data on customer-supplier relationships for firm-level input-output analysis. We overcome challenges of missing data through inference techniques. We present estimate a true firm-level model with global input-output linkages to estimate the potential aggregate impacts of firm level shocks and empirically analyze the contributions of network structure to latent systemic risk. We find that idiosyncratic firm-level shocks can account for meaningful impacts to aggregate output, that firms posing risk of significant impacts vary across sectors, and that the latent systemic risk varies across countries within the global interfirm network. Show less

Malloy GSP, Brandeau ML. When Is Mass Prophylaxis Cost-Effective for Epidemic Control? A Comparison of Decision Approaches. Medical Decision Making. May 2022.

Malloy GSP, Brandeau ML, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD. Modeling the Cost-Effectiveness of Interventions to Prevent Plague in Madagascar. Tropical Medicine and Infectious Disease. 2021; 6(2):101. https://doi.org/10.3390/tropicalmed6020101

Malloy GSP, Goldhaber-Fiebert JD, Enns EA, Brandeau ML. Predicting the Effectiveness of Endemic Infectious Disease Control Interventions: The Impact of Mass Action versus Network Model Structure. Medical Decision Making. April 2021. doi:10.1177/0272989X211006025

We aim to estimate the impact of various mitigation strategies on COVID-19 transmission in a US jail beyond those offered in national guidelines: depopulation, single celling, and asymptomatic testing. We developed a stochastic dynamic transmission model of COVID-19 tailored to the jail environment and find that all three interventions can be effective strategies to mitigate COVID-19 in jails.

Malloy, G.S.P.*, Puglisi, L.B.*, Harvey, T.D., Brandeau, M.L., Wang, E.A. (2020). Estimation of COVID-19 Basic Reproduction Ratio in a Large Urban Jail in the United States. Annals of Epidemiology. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.annepidem.2020.09.002

Knight, G. M., Schulman, K., Milstein, A., Rea, S., Malloy, G., Khaliq, U., Scheinker, D. (2019). A Transparent, Mathematical Model to Evaluate Proposals for Healthcare Reform. Health Management Policy and Innovation, Volume 4, Issue 3. https://hmpi.org/2019/11/25/a-transparent-mathematical-model-to-evaluate-proposals-for-healthcare-reform/