Sergej Mahnovski

This report assesses the economic dimensions of security in post-Soviet Central Asia and considers their implications for the role of the United States. The September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States led to the realization among policymakers that instability, failed and failing states, and economic and political underdevelopment present security concerns not just to the states that suffer directly from these problems but to the global community as a whole. In this regard, Central Asia may… Show more

This report assesses the economic dimensions of security in post-Soviet Central Asia and considers their implications for the role of the United States. The September 11, 2001, attacks on the United States led to the realization among policymakers that instability, failed and failing states, and economic and political underdevelopment present security concerns not just to the states that suffer directly from these problems but to the global community as a whole. In this regard, Central Asia may be at a crossroads, as demonstrated by the so-called “Tulip Revolution” in Kyrgyzstan and the unrest in Uzbekistan in 2005. However, it is unclear whether the states in the region have the institutional capacity to implement sound and lasting domestic reform and what the appropriate role is for the United States and the international community. Although some have argued that the U.S. military presence in the region could be used as a vehicle for encouraging political and economic reform, the record to date provides little grounds for optimism. In fact, Central Asia will increasingly diversify its economic and military relationships with neighbors such as Russia, China, and Iran, potentially crowding out direct U.S. influence in the region. U.S. policymakers should consider a lower-profile military presence, a sharper focus of diplomatic and economic resources on specific issues that may affect counter-terror and counter-narcotics efforts in the region, and a nuanced approach that engages alternative power centers, realizing that the principles and interests behind U.S. involvement are more enduring than any single regime is likely to be. Show less

GridWise™ is a vision, a concept, and a national initiative developed by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and participants from the electricity industry, which seeks to link electricity suppliers and end-users via high-speed networks that provide real-time information about system capacities, demand, prices, and status. This report presents the initial results of a two-phase project designed to characterize and estimate the benefits of applying such… Show more

GridWise™ is a vision, a concept, and a national initiative developed by the U.S. Department of Energy, the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, and participants from the electricity industry, which seeks to link electricity suppliers and end-users via high-speed networks that provide real-time information about system capacities, demand, prices, and status. This report presents the initial results of a two-phase project designed to characterize and estimate the benefits of applying such advanced communications and information technologies to bring the aging U.S. electricity grid into the information age. The project is intended to provide a better understanding of those benefits — for electricity suppliers, end-users, and society at large — that will inform both public and private sector decisions about GridWise-related research and development (R&D) and implementation strategies.

In the first phase of the study, reported here, an analytic framework is developed for characterizing and estimating benefits, and preliminary quantitative estimates are made of gross benefits for the most important benefit categories. Assumptions and other input variables for the benefit calculations are clearly delineated, both to indicate the sensitivity of the estimates to such inputs and to provide a basis for improving them.

A comparison of estimates for five scenarios indicates that the PV of gross benefits from GridWise can be large, exceeding $100 billion in some scenarios. However, the variance among estimates is also very large, depending, of course, on the input data and assumptions. At this early stage of GridWise development, many of the input variables and projections are highly uncertain. Consequently, the report concludes that delineating a range of benefits based on plausible input variables is more useful at this time than trying to converge on a single “best estimate." Show less

This report summarizes discussions with high-level representatives of 40 refining firms, technology and service providers, research institutions, and other organizations selected for their prominent positions in the refining industry. Presents these representatives' understanding of issues viewed as critical to refined products markets and refinery operations currently and in the years ahead.

Next Generation Environmental Technologies (NGETs) focus on the redesign, at the molecular level, of manufacturing processes and products, with the aim of reducing or eliminating the use of hazardous materials. This report examines the research, development, and commercialization of NGETs, many derived from "green chemistry." The report also assesses benefits of NGETs and outlines ways to reduce barriers to their development and implementation. In addition to the main report, an appendix… Show more

Next Generation Environmental Technologies (NGETs) focus on the redesign, at the molecular level, of manufacturing processes and products, with the aim of reducing or eliminating the use of hazardous materials. This report examines the research, development, and commercialization of NGETs, many derived from "green chemistry." The report also assesses benefits of NGETs and outlines ways to reduce barriers to their development and implementation. In addition to the main report, an appendix examines 25 case studies of NGETs that span a range of development, from early research to full use in profitable businesses. The authors find that, although green chemistry can be a powerful source of environmentally and economically beneficial technologies, the development of these NGETs is still in its infancy; substantial work is needed to create new NGETs and to encourage their use. Show less

Deregulation, competition, and industry restructuring are changing the production and delivery of electric power in the United States, both for investor-owned and municipally owned utilities. The largest U.S. municipal utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (DWP), asked RAND to consider possible changes in governance that could improve its decisionmaking and operations while maintaining public ownership. The authors found that the DWP would benefit from simplification and… Show more

Deregulation, competition, and industry restructuring are changing the production and delivery of electric power in the United States, both for investor-owned and municipally owned utilities. The largest U.S. municipal utility, the Los Angeles Department of Water and Power (DWP), asked RAND to consider possible changes in governance that could improve its decisionmaking and operations while maintaining public ownership. The authors found that the DWP would benefit from simplification and streamlining, whether or not the city's electricity market is opened to competition, which many business, labor, and government stakeholders view as inevitable. The report delineates three governance options for DWP: a city-owned corporation, an independent city agency with a strong governing board, and modifications of the existing departmental structure. While the final decision is up to the Los Angeles city council and ultimately the voters, this report is intended to stimulate informed public discussion and debate. Show less