Otavio (Tavi) Costa

Precious metals mining shares had a good month.

Crescat Capital's Otavio Costa sums this up pretty well in a past tweet where he notes how consumer confidence has crashed among the Asia Pacific community but somehow not in China? He notes, "Fabricated data.…. CCP at its finest."

Petróleo pode sustentar patamar mais elevado de preços com ajuda americana

Here is Singapore's air freight volume (year-over-year).

A high school degree or less:

The entire Treasury curve is below inflation for the second time in history.

Do NOT buy the dip, warns investor who says a ‘brutal bear market’ looms

Don’t Trust the Bounce: Brutal S&P 500 Selloff Will Continue, Says Popular Trader

Stocks Will Follow Oil’s Bear Market Decline: Former Goldman Sachs Analyst

Do NOT buy the dip, warns investor who says a ‘brutal bear market’ looms

Is the underperformance of energy services stocks over?

Other investment firms are also looking closely at oil services companies for a potential breakout next year. Crescat Capital’s global macro analyst Octavio ‘Tavi’ Costa also believed that there is opportunity for the segment ahead, adding that oil-service stocks have “never looked so cheap” in a tweet, MarketWatch reports.

The Fed's Excessive Money-Pump Is "Reinforcing The Inevitable Unraveling Of Imbalances"

Here's why a rough patch for battered oil stocks may be about to come to an end in 2020

Here’s why a rough patch for battered oil stocks may be about to come to an end in 2020

If Boeing stock takes flight, this ETF could go along for the ride

Stocks Look Ready to Rise as Investors Return to Finish a Holiday-Shortened Week

The Dow Is Up and So Is Tesla Stock in Post-Christmas Trading

The ratio of gold miners' share price to gold has broken through resistance.

This chart shows the gold-to-S&P 500 ratio historical trajectory after yield curve inversions.

The Impending End Of A Mania

This 70% Yield Curve Signal Says Buy Gold & Bitcoin, Sell Stocks

Fresh 50-year low in the commodities-to-equities ratio. The next monetary & fiscal experiment will come at a cost. Major cyclical turn in this ratio likely ahead.

This chart shows inflation-adjusted earnings per share for the Russell 3000 (broad US market).

Auto loan spreads to Treasuries have been rising as investors demand better returns to compensate for loan losses.

- The divergence between the CPI and consumer inflation expectations is near multi-year highs.

- US microcap stocks continue to underperform large caps.

They tend to be domestic-oriented businesses that have correlated strongly with the overall market throughout history. The S&P 500 looks like it is poised to play catch-up

There is a chance that excessive Treasury issuance could be causing the turmoil in the repo market. If so, one could argue this Fed intervention is in a way helping to finance the government deficits. This policy already expanded the balance sheet by $196 billion since August, and should be perceived as an acknowledgement of weakening economic conditions.

S&P 500 Shows Signs of a Business Cycle Ending, Says Portfolio Manager

Micro-caps have underperformed dramatically this year.

Precious metals are one of the few pockets of this market offering tremendous value to hedge against extreme monetary policies, bursting asset bubbles, and record global leverage. We see this opportunity playing out across gold, silver and related mining stocks. Gold is the ultimate form of money with a long history of storing value for investors and outperforming risk assets during market downturns. In our view, a new wave of global fiat currency debasement polices is now in its early stages… Show more

Precious metals are one of the few pockets of this market offering tremendous value to hedge against extreme monetary policies, bursting asset bubbles, and record global leverage. We see this opportunity playing out across gold, silver and related mining stocks. Gold is the ultimate form of money with a long history of storing value for investors and outperforming risk assets during market downturns. In our view, a new wave of global fiat currency debasement polices is now in its early stages. Gold should become a core asset for those who believe in this macro development, but it is still widely under-owned today. Show less

Otavio Costa, Global Macro Analyst at Crescat Capital, joins us on SBTV and shocked us with a plethora of warning signs he has found from his research that the bubble economy has peaked and the next economic meltdown is nearing.

Let's begin with some updates on the equity markets.

Costa vai além na sua análise e considera diversas relações de juros longos e curtos e afirma que 60% das curvas estão invertidas nos EUA. Tal evento antecedeu o estouro da bolha de tecnologia no começo dos anos 2000 e foi visto pouco antes da crise de 2008.

When the rate cut euphoria wears off, the stock market may settle into a channel that’s justified by the underlying economy’s fundamentals. Crescat Capital global macro analyst Otavio Costa pointed out Saturday that technical indicators presage a recession. Or at least a “soft landing” ahead:

Tavi Costa, un analista macro global de Crescat Capital, notó esa tendencia histórica en un tweet la semana pasada. La única vez en las últimas cuatro décadas en que el rendimiento a 30 años cayó por debajo de la tasa de los fondos federales y no fue seguida por una crisis inmediata fue en 1986, agregó.

The Consumer Satisfaction Index is near record highs. Can it be trusted?

"We are very late in the business cycle. It's compelling to bet against stocks," Costa said. "It's a Goldilocks scenario with low inflation but that tends to happen towards a peak for the markets."

"We are very late in the business cycle. It's compelling to bet against stocks," Costa said. "It's a Goldilocks scenario with low inflation but that tends to happen towards a peak for the markets."
Costa conceded that stock market pullbacks don't always go hand in hand with economic downturns.
But he said the S&P 500 may be overvalued by as much as 40%. If stocks were to lose that much in value over a short period of time, it's hard not to imagine how the United States could avoid a… Show more

"We are very late in the business cycle. It's compelling to bet against stocks," Costa said. "It's a Goldilocks scenario with low inflation but that tends to happen towards a peak for the markets."
Costa conceded that stock market pullbacks don't always go hand in hand with economic downturns.
But he said the S&P 500 may be overvalued by as much as 40%. If stocks were to lose that much in value over a short period of time, it's hard not to imagine how the United States could avoid a recession, Costa added. Show less

It’s official. US 30-year yield just inverted vs. the Fed funds rate!

Same warning ahead of the GFC, tech bust, Asian crisis, S&L crisis, and 1980’s double dip recessions.

The only false signal, 1986.

We now have the entire US Treasury curve below the Fed overnight rate.

The bond market flashed yet another warning signal for investors on Wednesday that a downturn for the economy may be coming. Despite the S&P 500 hitting new all-time highs, the yield on 30-year U.S. Treasury bonds briefly dipped below the overnight fed funds rate, a signal that has preceded the past five U.S. recessions.

The US stock market is retesting its all-time highs at record valuations yet again. We strongly believe it is poised to fail. The problem for bullish late-cycle momentum investors trying to play a breakout to new highs here is the oncoming freight train of deteriorating macro-economic conditions.

High-yield bonds are holding in there despite lower oil prices.

Only three other times in history precious metals surged while oil plunged! All of them happened during severe bear markets and recessions. Buckle up, folks.”

‘Buckle up!’ When oil and gold trade like this, it usually spells doom for the market

Should investors pay attention to Dr. Copper?

Tavi discusses his bullish thesis for gold. Their strategy is to look at historical trends for value-opportunities and to find a contrarian position. He feels that the United States is close to the top of the economic cycle and that gold will do well in the coming period. He cautions that inflationary issues could begin to play out as we move into the next election cycle.

Consumers' assessment of the current situation hit a multi-year high. This index tends to peak near the end of economic cycles.

Tavi Costa, global macro analyst at Crescat Capital, makes his Real Vision debut in style — with a bullish trade idea on precious metals. He highlights why it’s finally time for gold to start outperforming, supports his thesis by examining a variety of macro indicators, and discusses how to play the current setup, in this interview with Jake Merl. Filmed on April 24, 2019.

China consumer confidence now at its highest level in history!

It’s a contrarian indicator.

Confidence tends to be highest at market tops.

One thing is true:
Every time it reached a prior cyclical high it preceded a major crash.

US vs. German 5-year yield spread just broke down from a multi-year support line!

Previous breakdowns timed the market top in 2000 & 2007.

It’s another critical macro timing indicator.

For more, watch our latest video:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8N4tir0xIrs&t=158s

- A top-performing hedge fund said that buying gold while selling stocks is the “trade of the century” because another meltdown could be coming, according to Bloomberg.
- Crescat Capital LLC, a small fund with only $50 million under management, warns that a recession is coming in 2020 or 2021.
- The fund is betting long on gold in Chinese yuan, while shorting global equities.
- Crescat also said that prominent corporate insiders have been selling equities, another sign that trouble is… Show more

- A top-performing hedge fund said that buying gold while selling stocks is the “trade of the century” because another meltdown could be coming, according to Bloomberg.
- Crescat Capital LLC, a small fund with only $50 million under management, warns that a recession is coming in 2020 or 2021.
- The fund is betting long on gold in Chinese yuan, while shorting global equities.
- Crescat also said that prominent corporate insiders have been selling equities, another sign that trouble is on the way.
- “We’re not perma-bears by any means,” Tavi Costa, a global macro analyst at Crescat, told Bloomberg. “This is a very tactical bearish view right now, and hopefully when the market turns, we want to also time the bull market at some point.” Show less

The consensus is pointing to a recession in 2020 or 2021, Tavi Costa, a global macro analyst at Crescat, said on telephone. “We think it’s a lot closer than that and we have a number of macro timing indicators that we look at.”

“We’re not perma-bears by any means,” Costa said. “This is a very tactical bearish view right now, and hopefully when the market turns, we want to also time the bull market at some point.”

“In our view, September of 2018 marked the peak of the U.S. economic cycle. We are now seeing a typical bear market rally, and the next downward leg is likely to be just as abrupt as the first one,” Costa told MarketWatch in an interview. “It’s hard to pinpoint when exactly, but my best guess is between now and April.”

As usual, the bond market tends to give us signals before more obvious evidence emerges.

“I think this is just a bear market rally that we’re having,” Costa said. “Sure it hurts the portfolio … but on the long-term those (stocks that made gains) should be trading a lot lower."

We think the housing sector is the poster child for all the problems and imbalances we see in Canada today.

Three- and 5-year yields are poised to dip below the 2.4 percent effective Fed funds rate for the first time since 2006, before the global financial crisis.

The ‘dangerous’ game investors are playing in this wild earnings season

Canadian banks will be left holding the bag and the ones to suffer from what is likely to be a major economic recession.

My chart was featured on Wall Street Journal highlighting an inconsistent divergence between Brazilian stocks and the nation’s weak industrial production.

Rallies in the S&P 500 as big or greater than last week accompanied by a rise in US Treasuries only happened 3 other times since 2000. All of them proved to be bear market rallies.

Bloomberg just published my analysis on the divergence in monetary policies between the Fed and European Central Bank being unsustainable.

Bloomberg TV shared my views on oil prices (starting at 43:40).

Asset prices in Brazil and Mexico have diverged sharply. The market usually prefers right-wing populists to left-leaning ones.

The US CPI and the unemployment rate are inversely correlated again, which suggests that the Phillips Curve is "functioning" now.

According to an analysis by Crescat Capital's Tavi Costa, since the first rate hike by the Fed in December 2015, some 34 months ago, the S&P has risen by 41%: that puts this post-hike rally in the top spot of all previous market advances in a time when the Fed has been tightening financial conditions.

“This is the strongest rally ever during a Fed tightening period, and now we are at record valuations,” Otavio Costa, a global macro analyst at the Denver, Colorado-based firm, wrote on Twitter. “How long until all hell breaks loose?”

Moonshot Bitcoin Price Trigger Needs Halving and 2020 Global Recession

This chart shows the ratio of consumer confidence to the unemployment rate. Are we near the peak?