Selma Hepp, PhD

By synthesizing a broad range of data, the Casden Real Estate Economics Forecast analyzes the dynamics of the real estate markets for Southern California. The Forecast incorporates economic, demographic, and regulatory trends.

The 2013 USC Casden Multifamily Forecast projects two more years of rent increases as the region’s rental housing market continues to absorb units faster than it completes them.

Demand for multifamily rental housing increased across Southern California, with positive net absorption and increased occupancy rates in the four metro areas: Los Angeles, the Inland Empire, Orange County, and San Diego. Between the second quarters of 2012 and 2013, almost 6,700 multifamily rental units were… Show more

The 2013 USC Casden Multifamily Forecast projects two more years of rent increases as the region’s rental housing market continues to absorb units faster than it completes them.

Demand for multifamily rental housing increased across Southern California, with positive net absorption and increased occupancy rates in the four metro areas: Los Angeles, the Inland Empire, Orange County, and San Diego. Between the second quarters of 2012 and 2013, almost 6,700 multifamily rental units were completed across these four markets, with the most units completed in Los Angeles County. This represents a 113 percent increase in completions from the previous year and the highest number of completions across the four markets in the past three years. In addition, almost 11,900 multifamily units were absorbed across all four markets. Orange County and the Inland Empire absorbed more units than the previous year while Los Angeles and San Diego absorbed fewer units than the previous year.

Our forecast shows rising rents for all four metro areas over the next two years. We believe that the growth rate for rents will be slower for Los Angeles and Orange County, but will increase slightly for the Inland Empire and San Diego. We expect vacancy rates will decrease across all four markets, however, they will decrease at a slightly slower rate in Los Angeles, the Inland Empire, and San Diego, and at a higher rate in Orange County. Show less

Selma Hepp, Senior Economist at the California Association of REALTORS®, and Casey Dawkins,
Associate Professor of Urban Studies and Planning at the University of Maryland, present a concise discussion of their research on the impact of post-secondary education on the earnings of real estate agents.

This article explores the link between foreclosures and costs of commuting. For metropolitan spatial form, the important question on spatial location of foreclosures is whether their concentration in suburbia stems from higher risk lending during the subprime boom alone or whether costs of commuting added additional risk because of their stress on household budgets. The analysis attempts to single out the impact of proximity to the central business districts and transit and employment… Show more

This article explores the link between foreclosures and costs of commuting. For metropolitan spatial form, the important question on spatial location of foreclosures is whether their concentration in suburbia stems from higher risk lending during the subprime boom alone or whether costs of commuting added additional risk because of their stress on household budgets. The analysis attempts to single out the impact of proximity to the central business districts and transit and employment accessibility in accumulation of distressed properties in Maryland, and the Washington and Baltimore metropolitan areas separately. The analysis shows that even after accounting for subprime lending and employment, distance to the central business district impacted levels of distressed properties, particularly in the Washington region. There were more foreclosures farther from the urban core and in areas with relatively lesser access to employment. Show less

This paper summarizes six key demographic trends against the backdrop of the U.S. housing crisis, which has thrown markets into disarray and disrupted long-term trends in demography and housing demand.

In 2010, young adults lived in their parents’ homes, doubled up with other families or stayed with roommates at rates far higher than in 2000. All working-age adults, even those between 45 and 65 years old, reduced their rates of homeownership; blacks and Hispanics saw especially acute… Show more

This paper summarizes six key demographic trends against the backdrop of the U.S. housing crisis, which has thrown markets into disarray and disrupted long-term trends in demography and housing demand.

In 2010, young adults lived in their parents’ homes, doubled up with other families or stayed with roommates at rates far higher than in 2000. All working-age adults, even those between 45 and 65 years old, reduced their rates of homeownership; blacks and Hispanics saw especially acute declines in homeownership during the housing bust. The crisis has also reduced incomes and increased poverty rates to their highest level in two decades, reducing many families’ ability to pay for housing. Home vacancies stand well above year-2000 levels; at year-2000 vacancy rates, 2.7 million fewer units would now be vacant. In addition, about 10 percent of residential mortgages are either in foreclosure or at least 90 days delinquent. Show less

PhD Dissertation