Todd Tomalak
Green Bay, Wisconsin Metropolitan Area
4K followers
500+ connections
About
With a reputation as one of the most thoughtful and diligent forecasters in the Building…
Articles by Todd
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Price Inflation vs Quality Improvement in 2021
Price Inflation vs Quality Improvement in 2021
By Todd Tomalak
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Thinking About Impact of Income Growth on Your Product? Better Look Closer than Before COVID
Thinking About Impact of Income Growth on Your Product? Better Look Closer than Before COVID
By Todd Tomalak
Contributions
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How can you eliminate measurement bias in economic data?
I've personally seen several major measurement problems in housing data, usually driven by the fact that the original intent of the person who designed the measuring tool was to measure something ELSE, and not how the financial industry was interpreting the data. As a result, major revisions were eventually required (with billions of dollars of measurement error). Entirely due to measurement bias. The data that is measured is often the data that is convenient to capture, not the information that is the most useful (or accurate). And too often gets fed into some econometric model before the analyst understand what is actually being measured. To quote the Princess Bride (movie): "I do not think it means what you think it means"
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How can you describe your forecasting experience?
In my experience, many economic forecasters early in their career miscommunicate models, because they see the model as way of validating 'I am smart about this'. I certainly did, and have learned since then. Very early in my career, I had the opportunity to present to a major CEO on forex risk related to a major acquisition. When the time came to present, I started talking about our model at length, rather than the important conclusion. I thought inspiring confidence in the model would inspire confidence in our analysis, so used the model as a crutch. My mistake: CEO's need to know about the conclusion first, and need to know they trust their team. Be prepared to discuss the model, but don't start there - at least not for leadership.
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What is the difference between the Consumer Price Index and the Producer Price Index?
In 2020-21, prices reflected in CPI/PPI generally struggled to capture cost differences in quality and availability, which are part of the 'economic good', but hard to measure. For example, the 2020 calculation captured the change in consumer cost to eating food at restaurants but struggled to capture the QUALITY CHANGE of having to eat at a restaurant while being afraid of being infected by a virus. There are some quality adjustments, especially with physical goods (like clothing), but quality of services is notoriously difficult to capture...especially in housing-related categories.
Activity
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Did you know: - The average monthly net sales rate for public builders is 2x compared to that of private builders. -The average new home community…
Did you know: - The average monthly net sales rate for public builders is 2x compared to that of private builders. -The average new home community…
Liked by Todd Tomalak
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This is how $1.00 of general increase of labor costs impact housing and upstream suppliers. When the next 'bull run' of housing occurs, scale will…
This is how $1.00 of general increase of labor costs impact housing and upstream suppliers. When the next 'bull run' of housing occurs, scale will…
Shared by Todd Tomalak
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Our published research cadence has three gems over the next three weeks: 1) A dive into shifts occurring between brands and categories. As you might…
Our published research cadence has three gems over the next three weeks: 1) A dive into shifts occurring between brands and categories. As you might…
Posted by Todd Tomalak
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Education
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Just pulled up my notes from being the Emcee at PCBC's Leader to Leader and wanted to share a few highlights from the program: Adrian Foley outlined…
Just pulled up my notes from being the Emcee at PCBC's Leader to Leader and wanted to share a few highlights from the program: Adrian Foley outlined…
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Obscure economics nugget which reveals something new (to me) about priorities of US housing consumers, and whether brands matter. - Quality…
Obscure economics nugget which reveals something new (to me) about priorities of US housing consumers, and whether brands matter. - Quality…
Shared by Todd Tomalak
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Exciting news! We are thrilled to welcome Jeffrey D. Smith as our new CEO! He'll be leading the charge alongside Chairman Thomas Chen and President…
Exciting news! We are thrilled to welcome Jeffrey D. Smith as our new CEO! He'll be leading the charge alongside Chairman Thomas Chen and President…
Liked by Todd Tomalak
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A shift in consumer behavior to more recreational goods seems to be setting up a secondary knock-on effect to some housing categories. For example -…
A shift in consumer behavior to more recreational goods seems to be setting up a secondary knock-on effect to some housing categories. For example -…
Shared by Todd Tomalak
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For you 90's Alanis Morissette fans, the 'black fly in the Chardonnay' of the theory of broad-based COVID remodel pull-forward is that it doesn't…
For you 90's Alanis Morissette fans, the 'black fly in the Chardonnay' of the theory of broad-based COVID remodel pull-forward is that it doesn't…
Shared by Todd Tomalak
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The $3.5 billion investment in QXO is "the largest capital raise in building products history" per Zonda principal Todd Tomalak:…
The $3.5 billion investment in QXO is "the largest capital raise in building products history" per Zonda principal Todd Tomalak:…
Liked by Todd Tomalak
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Comment on the Poolcorp 8k today. Rough guidance, with their forecast of pool remodels down -15%. In our webinar before this we noted that Pools are…
Comment on the Poolcorp 8k today. Rough guidance, with their forecast of pool remodels down -15%. In our webinar before this we noted that Pools are…
Shared by Todd Tomalak
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The timing of the QXO investment is important/unique given the unique backdrop of this cycle. My comments in this article, as well as some points…
The timing of the QXO investment is important/unique given the unique backdrop of this cycle. My comments in this article, as well as some points…
Shared by Todd Tomalak
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Enjoyed joining Ron Heitzman, CEO of Parksite in discussing what's occurring in the industry in this podcast. What an interesting time to be in…
Enjoyed joining Ron Heitzman, CEO of Parksite in discussing what's occurring in the industry in this podcast. What an interesting time to be in…
Shared by Todd Tomalak
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One implication we are discovering from below: as public builders gain market share they also install very different products and brands than other…
One implication we are discovering from below: as public builders gain market share they also install very different products and brands than other…
Shared by Todd Tomalak
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Reaction to May 2024 housing starts release: Better than the headline number seems at first blush. Pro tip: watch change in backlog of SF permitted…
Reaction to May 2024 housing starts release: Better than the headline number seems at first blush. Pro tip: watch change in backlog of SF permitted…
Shared by Todd Tomalak
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