Confidence heuristic

Research confirms that people are confident when they know they're right and their confidence makes them persuasive. This concept is called the confidence heuristic, and it is found in many fields. Specifically, research states that when people communicate beliefs with one another, we generally express confidence in proportion to our degree of certainty. And with some qualifications, recipients tend to judge the persuasiveness of communication according to the confidence with which it is expressed. One type of test of confidence heuristic goes like this. You and I participate in an experiment together. We will each be shown two pictures. The pictures may be of two different people or two pictures of the same person. You are shown two pictures and asked to decide if the pictures are of the same person or two different people. I am also given two pictures. The people in my pictures are the same as the people in your pictures, but the pictures themselves are different. I am also asked to decide if the people I see in my pictures are the same or different people. Without looking at each other's pictures, we are then asked to negotiate an agreed judgment. Do we agree that we have two pictures of the same person or of two different people? Here's an example. You were shown two pictures and asked to decide if these two pictures are of the same person. I am also shown two different pictures and asked to decide if these two pictures are of the same person. We are then left to negotiate our agreed answer. Another example. You are shown these two pictures and asked to decide if these two pictures are the same person and I am shown two different pictures. We are then left to negotiate an answer. And one final example. You are showing these two pictures, and I am shown two different pictures. In each instance, we negotiate and agree to answer. What researchers have found is that people tend to express confidence in proportion to the degree of certainty that they feel. If you are given more information in the form of a better quality picture, then you feel certain about your decision. When you feel more certain, you will attempt to persuade me, especially if I show a lack of confidence. More information leads to more certainty, more certainty leads to higher confidence, and higher confidence leads to more effective persuasion. This is the confidence heuristic, and it captures in a small measure the importance of confidence among solution engineers. Confidence is perceived as being the result of more information and is therefore more persuasive.