Andrew Pannu’s Post

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Founder @ Sleuth (we’re hiring frontend software engineers!)

Cell therapy is in the middle of a huge shift... ...and everyone from small biotechs to big pharma want in on the next big thing: autoimmune disorders Here's how I think this goes down: First, I charted the programs of 37 companies in this space, segmented by cell source and modality Exhibit 1: Cell Therapy I&I Landscape This is one of the fastest growing spaces in the industry - dozens of formerly oncology-focused cell therapy companies have pivoted their portfolios entirely, and you have to imagine that dozens more are having serious conversations At minimum, it seems everyone needs to have some presence given investor enthusiasm. And it makes sense why: • There are 100+ known autoimmune diseases with rising incidence due to lifestyle, environmental factors and improved diagnosis - this equals 15-20M Americans and 4.5% of the world's population • Most indications have suboptimal treatments and those that do have a large base of refractory patients for whom existing MoAs don't work • Unlike most cancers, I&I patients can be young, meaning a near-curative therapy option has a lifetime of benefit and cost savings • It's a massive market with $100B in aggregate economic burden; for context, the US has 80K annual NHL cases vs. >1M SLE cases And the oncology cell therapy space is tough right now - an explosion of funding has created way too many companies pursuing similar innovations. Cheaper novel alternatives such as BsAbs + persistent supply & manufacturing issues have dampened enthusiasm of ever reaching frontline patients Autoimmunity is comparably a blue ocean - not only with no approved therapies, but essentially no assets in late-stage development. A lot of the learnings around B-cell mediated diseases can be ported over, and first movers could get a nice M&A premium that the space has been missing For all of those reasons, I think we'll see more new companies spin up platforms around this + retooling of existing platforms. Big Pharma will not take a wait-and-see approach either: I expect them to continue to prioritize their internal programs (we already see a few) and lean into their manufacturing and supply chain edge + commercial learnings The rules of the game are a bit different than in oncology: safety is paramount given this is not life-or-death. Similarly, vein-to-vein time is not as important - it's not a race against a growing tumor to get the drug to patients Initially, we'll see companies start with validated targets and indications - of the 70+ programs, >70% involve CD19 or BCMA and most target SLE, since PoC data has already emerged there. Autologous CAR-Ts are a popular choice. As the space becomes more crowded, we'll quickly see more innovation, including: • Larger indications without PoC (i.e. RA, IBD, MS) • Alternate modalities, such as Tregs or NK cells • Allogeneic and in vivo approaches, which offer significant manufacturing advantages Let me know how you think this space evolves or if you'd like a PDF!

  • Bullseye graphic summarizing specific assets across 37 different cell therapy company portfolios, segmented by development phase, cell source and modality.

All good points and good overview. The key missing piece of the discussion: Cost! It is a non-starter to assume commercial success for >$200,000/yr cell therapy in chronic lifetime diseases. That cost structure may work in oncology and other areas. But not in I&I.

Rahul Patel

Executive Medical Director

1mo

Interesting perspectives and great review. I would add some caveats with autoimmune disease - patients view CAR T/cell therapy with quite a different perspective than oncology patients. Many are turned off/afraid when they start hearing about potential risks, including risk of T cell malignancies, even though those risks may be quite rare. Also, finding patients in the right window of disease course can be challenging - once autoimmune disease is advanced with chronic damage, CAR T, no matter how transformational, is not going to work or reverse permanent damage. Lastly, few sites have the cross-disciplinary infrastructure to conduct such trials. Thus, the 'blue ocean' may be more like a crowded swimming pool initially. 😂

I feel that massive cost reduction is still needed to make cell therapies accessible and not a last resort after all conventional treatments have been exhausted. As Andrew suggested, with out a safe and effective allogenic approaches (reducing cost) for future generations of cell therapies combined with effective non-viral platforms for modifying multiple immune cell lines (removing the risk and costs from virus production, handling and decontamination) the payers, such as insurance companies and national healthcare systems, will limit the use of cell therapies to the few who can co-pay and the survivors of all other conventional treatments - you need to be healthy enough to survive cell therapy.

Courtney Rice

Gene Therapy Commercialization & Healthcare Due Diligence

1mo

My question is - can the current infrastructure handle administering these when/if approved?

Andrea Iseppon

Life-Science Business & R&D Strategy Consultant, Catenion GmbH

1mo

Andrew this is a great review and visual. We are always reviewing C&GT and obviously I&I is on everyone’s agenda these days. IMO, there are still puzzling questions on CTx for I&I: regulatory hurdles, costs of therapy vs DoR, safety issues, CMC and logistics... to name a few. While for Pharma this may represent a side-track opportunity spinning out from their I/O franchise (often via LCM opportunities of established products), Biotech and even mid-sized Pharma need to really be cautious when considering this space. Let’s see. Initial data seem promising and point-of-care treatment with i.e. allogeneic CTx is, IMO, rhetorical way to go. Thanks again for sharing. Love the enthusiasm!

Michael W. Young

C-Suite Strategic Consultant | Commercialization Executive | Clinical Development Leader | Board-Level Patient Advocate | Global Alliance Management Expert | Founder & Principal

1mo

Andrew, Highly insightful and forward-thinking re: the clinical application. Intrigued by the graphic (PDF Pleez!) I fear the present healthcare delivery system will retard this adoption and the current payer system is not prepared for the aggregate cost of these nascent therapies. 💰 When payers and the government won't reward cures (ie. Gilead's sofosbuvir), we've got an innovation blockade to resolve. Also, like Peter J. O'Brien Ph.D.'s comment about ECP. Its utility beyond GvHD with cutaneous T-cell lymphomas is worth noting. ✅

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Another key missing piece that could halt or at least significantly slow down patient access is if hospitals have to continue to collect and process cells without getting any payment from Medicare. Given the pipeline and innovation, everyone in the space needs to submit comments to CMS now on its CY 2025 hospital and physician payment rules so that the logjam on separate payment can be broken. And yes, would love a PDF.

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Autoimmune is a huge target and one that we must, as a research and medical community, do better in addressing!

Dr. Manish K.

Radiation Oncologist @ AIIMS Rajkot | MD

1mo

Andrew Pannu This analysis perfectly captures the transformative potential of cell therapy in autoimmune disorders. The shift from oncology to immunology is not only a strategic pivot but a necessary evolution driven by unmet clinical needs and market dynamics. The points on rising incidence and refractory patient populations underscore the urgency for innovative solutions. The comparison between oncology and autoimmunity markets highlights the opportunity for first movers to leverage existing B-cell mediated disease knowledge. Your forecast of Big Pharma's proactive stance and the emphasis on safety and manufacturing efficiency is spot on. It will be fascinating to see how novel modalities like Tregs, NK cells, and allogeneic approaches shape the landscape. This burgeoning field holds immense promise for patients and investors alike. I would love to delve deeper into your analysis; please share the PDF!

Jeff Mayhew

Chief Development Officer at LabConnect

1mo

Thank you for this insightful post and graphic. i would appreciate the PDF… you can send via Linkedin or my email, [email protected]

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