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“Doublethink means the power of holding two contradictory beliefs in one’s mind simultaneously, and accepting both of them.” - 1984 (George Orwell) #useconomy #inflation #2023trends #2023hiring #2023layoff #2023layoffs #whytrumpiswinning #trump2024 #bidenomics #bidenadministration #biden #2024elections #2024trends #2024election

The remarkable January jobs figures of 353K released this morning and the revision of December jobs to 333K from 216K strongly suggests employers are starting to hire again and put recession fears behind them. Read more details and insights from our chief economist Joseph Brusuelas read more here https://lnkd.in/gBNq8fdv

Quick take on today’s Jobs Report: Fed officials may look back at their July meeting and wish they had a “do-over” and cut rates, rather than hold off and waiting till September. There wasn’t much to like in today’s employment figures. Job creation slowed to 114,000 in July – well below expectations - and the unemployment rate ticked higher for the fourth-consecutive month, rising from 4.1% to 4.3%. We also saw job gains for the prior two months revised lower by a combined 29,000. While one month doesn’t make a trend, two other reports released this week also highlighted softness in the labor market. In the latest Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, we saw the pace of hiring sink to the lowest level since April 2020. And in the unemployment claims release, we saw the number of ongoing claims for unemployment benefits rise to the highest level since late 2021. All in all, the conversation for the Fed is set to shift from when to cut, to how many times to cut. My view is that three cuts – one at each of the final three meetings of the year in Sept, Nov, and Dec – are now on the table. #jobsreport #unemployment #federalreserve #interestrates

When the U.S. Labor Department's July jobs report revealed that job growth had slowed significantly and the unemployment rate had climbed to the highest level in almost three years, fears of a broader economic slowdown briefly sent Wall Street into crisis mode, sparking a broad sell-off. However, optimism quickly returned when initial jobless claims declined for two weeks straight and this week's CPI report fueled hopes of a nearing end to the inflation crisis. In fact, the latest jobs reports, which showed a significant cooling of the long-overheated labor market could be described as "Fed-friendly", as Jerome Powell has repeatedly stressed that the labor market needs to come into better balance for inflation to cool and the Fed to able to start cutting rates. "In the labor market, supply and demand conditions have come into better balance," Powell said at a press conference following the latest FOMC meeting on July 31. "The unemployment rate has moved up but remains low at 4.1 percent. Nominal wage growth has eased over the past year, and the jobs-to-workers gap has narrowed. Overall, a broad set of indicators suggests that conditions in the labor market have returned to about where they stood on the eve of the pandemic - strong, but not overheated." With inflation cooling to 2.9 percent in July, the labor market coming into better balance and the advance estimate of second quarter GDP showing an acceleration of economic growth, hopes of the coveted soft landing, i.e. a scenario in which the Fed manages to bring down inflation without plunging the economy into recession and a period of high unemployment, are more alive than ever. And of course, with the stunning downward revision revealed yesterday of 818,000 jobs, all eyes are on the Fed and Chairman Powell for sure in Jackson Hole today and tomorrow. More on that later. Selected text and graphic are © Visual Capitalist, 2024. All Rights Reserved, used with permission. © Mark S. Mandula, CLO BCR Learning, 2024. All Rights Reserved.

The US jobs market does not slow down! The Fed will be watching these impressive job gains together with the slight acceleration in wage growth. The case for reducing rates at the next meeting is dwindling. And I think financial markets have it wrong to price in more than 100 basis points of rate cuts this year. Have a look at our blog post that summarizes the January jobs report numbers. #Fed #nonfarmpayrolls #jobs #growth #wages https://lnkd.in/etW7jBHY

"The full-time jobs indicator now reflects what we've seen in temporary jobs for months. For decades, whenever temporary help services are negative, year over year, for more than three months in a row, the US is headed toward recession. This measure has now been negative in the United States for the past seventeen months (...) Ordinary Americans are caught in the middle of all this. Thanks to fifteen years of ultra-easy money, Americans are seeing the cost of living soar, even as the economy shifts to more part-time work. The Fed's efforts to rein in inflation have done nothing to reverse the 20-percent devaluation of the dollar that consumers have endured over the past four years. The Fed is so committed to monetary inflation, it is unlikely to take any hawkish position that might actually reduce the cost of living. Rather, the Fed is in a holding pattern until the political dam finally breaks and the Fed turns back to dovish policy. As Daniel Lacalle showed this week, that's a recipe for stagflation. There is plenty of rough water ahead." March Report: The Recession In Full-Time Jobs Is Here by Ryan McMaken #FullTimeJobs #PartTimeJobs #MonetaryInflation #Recession #RyanMcMaken https://lnkd.in/dHyGm_Wp

Digging in the numbers there are real signs of the employment market weaking. Historically, once hours worked and openings start to slow, unemployment follows quickly. Never smart trying to catch a falling knife. The Fed should cut rates. They are almost too data dependent on lagging indicators and better to be proactive. A "no landing" is looking more like a soft landing. Fingers crossed its not a hard landing.

U.S. MARCH JOBS REPORT; MORE JOBS THAN EXPECTED.-WSJ APRIL 5TH 2024- The U.S. economy added 303,000 jobs in March, significantly more than the expected 200,000. By  Justin Lahart Follow Updated April 5, 2024, 1:23 pm ET   Higher-than-expected inflation and weak readings from business surveys have raised questions about the economy. WSJ’s Dion Rabouin explains what this latest jobs report says about the economy. Photo: Justin Sullivan Jobs grew at a brisk pace in March, but wage growth was contained, confirming a belief among economists that the U.S. can continue to expand employment without fanning inflation. U.S. employers added a seasonally adjusted 303,000 jobs in March, the Labor Department reported Friday, significantly more than the 200,000 economists expected. The unemployment rate slipped to 3.8%, versus February’s 3.9%, in line with expectations. Average hourly earnings rose 4.1% from a year ago, the smallest gain since June 2021.  Investors have been on edge recently over economic data suggesting that Federal Reserve interest-rate cuts might not be imminent. The strength of Friday’s report feeds into those concerns—though that is less because it stirs worries of inflation, and more because it leaves the central bank comfortable with its wait-and-see stance on interest rates. When good news is good news All three U.S. stock indexes were up Friday after a lackluster week, with investors choosing to focus on the strength of the economy rather than what the report might mean for the Fed.  For most of 2022, senior Fed officials saw strong economic activity and hiring as a headwind to bringing down inflation. They worried that tighter labor markets would keep pressure on wages and, in turn, prevent inflation from falling all the way back to the Fed’s 2% goal in a reasonable amount of time. Investors tended to view good jobs news as bad for the market.  Fed Chair Jerome Powell in recent months has signaled, however, that he no longer regards strong hiring as something to fear. That is because the labor force has been growing steadily, largely due to a strong rebound in immigration. As a result, brisk hiring isn’t stoking concern on Powell’s part that the economy is at significant risk of overheating. The economy isn’t becoming tighter, which it ordinarily would. It’s becoming a little looser, and you’re seeing inflation come down—very unusual situation,” Powell said on Wednesday. Instead of focusing on hiring, Powell and other Fed officials have suggested that inflation data in the coming months will be much more important in determining whether the central bank can cut rates in June. The consumer-price index for March, which is set for release by the Labor Department next week, will be closely watched because inflation was firmer than expected in January and February... #economy#inflation#jobsreport#jobpositions#fed#monetarypolicy#

December's job market surprised everyone with 216,000 new jobs! This boom could mean a soft landing for the economy, but it's also got the Fed rethinking rate cuts. Will strong hiring keep rates high? Stay tuned for more data and Fed updates to see where we're headed! #JobsReport #Fed #Economy #InterestRates #JobsBoom #FinancialNews #Investing

Employers added 206,000 jobs in June, a gradual cooldown from the previous month and the latest sign that the U.S. economy is settling after four years of breakneck growth. The unemployment rate, meanwhile, rose slightly to 4.1 percent from 4 percent in May, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. That follows a surprise burst of 272,000 new jobs in May that reignited concerns that the Federal Reserve would need to keep interest rates higher for longer to stamp out inflation. But overall, economists say there are enough signs of a broader slowdown in hiring, job postings and wage growth to point to a hardy but gradually slowing job market. “The labor market is still strong but not quite as strong as it was a year ago,” said Gus Faucher, chief economist at PNC. “If we see a bit slower job growth, a little bit of cooling competition for workers, slightly less wage growth, that should help get inflation back to the Fed’s 2 percent target.” Inflation, at 3.3 percent, has come down dramatically from its peak of 9.1 percent two years ago, but remains higher than the Fed would like. Wage growth in particular, which can drive prices higher, has been a key focus for the central bank. Overall, wages have risen 4.1 percent in the past year, though economists expect slower growth in June, further assuaging concerns that inflation could flare up again. Fed Chair Jerome H. Powell this week said the labor market is “cooling off appropriately.” “It doesn’t look like it’s heating up or presenting a big problem for inflation going forward,” Powell said at the European Central Bank’s annual meeting on Tuesday. “It looks like it’s doing just what you would want it to do, which is to cool off over time.” Those signs of cooling are stacking up: Hiring in the service industry contracted in June for the sixth time in seventh months. And unemployment claims ticked up again last week, the ninth straight increase, in a sign that it’s taking people longer to find jobs.