Brian Wong’s Post

A hike a day keeps the doctor away. The best antidote to an extremely stressful month of deadlines (book, chapter, articles etc.): presenting the Lugard Road walk...

A fantastic read from former PBOC Deputy Governor and IMF Deputy MD Dr. Zhu Min, alongside Dr. Bing Gong and Dr. Siyao Yang.

My South China Morning Post SCMP take, on why Hong Kong can not only survive, but in fact thrive amidst the US-China rivalry - a seemingly counterintuitive claim that nevertheless maps onto the path forward we must forge: "With bipartisan antipathy towards China in Washington and the Republican presidential front runner surrounded by a trenchant circle of China hawks as advisers – including his vice-presidential pick, Hong Kong must brace itself for a protracted period of embittered rivalry. I concur with political scientist Li Cheng. We could well be facing 10 to 15 more years of mutual antagonism. Yet, there remains a silver lining. If we play our cards right, Hong Kong could well capitalise upon the unfortunate trend by optimising the possible upsides while minimising the downsides. We can escape the fate of being “kicked around” like a “football”, as renowned diplomat Kishore Mahbubani put it. First, Hong Kong must position itself as the primary destination for ethnic Chinese professionals leaving the West amid escalating tensions and the increasing politicisation of higher education. A Stanford University study found that after the introduction of the China Initiative in 2018, the number of departures in China-born, US-based scientists increased by 75 per cent. Trans-Pacific scientific research and collaboration – especially in sensitive, strategic tech sectors, e.g. semiconductors, biotechnology, and quantum computing – has become much more difficult, as insidious speculation creeps into both public and private discourses concerning Chinese scientists. Second, Hong Kong should double down on helping Chinese firms navigate international markets – whether they be emerging giants, such as India and countries in the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean), or established powerhouses in the West and Persian Gulf. We must correspondingly step up our efforts to serve leading players around the world seeking access to Chinese capital and technology. The “China plus one” strategy adopted by large multinational corporations is part of a broader de-risking trend in response to geopolitical uncertainty in the region. But it also provides an opportunity for Chinese state-owned and private enterprises as they strive to circumvent trade restrictions and protectionist measures imposed by the US. Third, In the face of our critics and sceptics, we must put our money where our mouth is and embrace our status as a buffer zone, one where voices and opinions dubbed too sensitive in the Chinese mainland can be expressed by interlocutors from Beijing, Shanghai and other major cities. Amidst the intense Sino-US strategic competition, both nationalistic and security-fixated talking points have gained considerable traction among bureaucrats on both sides. Yet, Hong Kong must steer clear of the perilous tendencies of pan-securitisation and excessive paranoia, to convene conversations between Chinese and American officials, academic and entrepreneurs."

50 days, 16 cities later, finally back in Hong Kong. Have missed the summery, sultry breeze and the vivacious rain. Good to be back.

For China-US Focus, I look at Sino-French relations post-election: "To the right, de facto RN spiritual leader Marine le Pen has repeatedly pledged that France will rein in aid to Ukraine in its ongoing war against Russia, as well as trotting out well-rehearsed criticisms of the Ukrainian government whilst taking on a distinctly more accommodative posture towards Russia, as compared with many of her center-right and centrist colleagues. These NATO-skeptical attitudes do not, however, translate to openness to China. Indeed, she has previously pledged that as president, she would seek to prevent the “tie-up [that] risks being the largest danger of the 21st century” – a Sino-Russian partnership. As with many in the New Right in the United States, such as talk show host Tucker Carlson and Donald Trump’s running mate JD Vance, the French far-right are inclined to repair the West’s relations with Russia, in order to clear the path for the Western encirclement and containment strategies towards China. On the other hand, the NPF features a broad church of attitudes on China. On one hand, Mélenchon has repeatedly praised China and Chinese leaders in his public statements – and is known for generally anti-imperialist and US-skeptical views. Yet some of the NPF’s closest and most influential backers, most notably Raphaël Glucksmann, habour substantially more cynical views towards Beijing, and have been highly vocal on issues perceived by the Chinese leadership to be politically sensitive. In short, there is no coherent China policy amongst these largely domestically oriented left-wing parties. One way or another, these two factional blocs will have significant effects, even if indirectly, on French foreign policy. Despite the fact that external relations remain largely a Presidential prerogative, even at times of cohabitation between President and Prime Minister from different parties, should members of either bloc be appointed to the new cabinet, it is evident they will be granted significant leverage to conduct external relations via their respective portfolios. France is the only European (qua EU) P5 nation in the Security Council, with the de facto mandate of registering and representing European interests within the highest organ of international governance. As Sino-American tensions intensify, it is pivotal that China keeps Europe as non-aligned as possible – despite the evident strength and value convergence underpinning the Trans-Atlantic relationship. Second, France remains one of the more tenable and largest European economies – despite the plethora of structural issues afflicting its industries and production capacities. Third, Sino-French relations have long been cited by Beijing as an exemplar for the role and power played by cultural and educational ties in China’s engagement with the world. Fundamentally, if Beijing is serious about multi-polarity, it must recognise that France has a constructive and positive role to play in its vision."

I often hear assertions that generalise about 'Chinese youth' - that they are allegedly all nationalistic little pinks, all 'lying flat', all pro- or anti-status quo, or largely motivated by altruistic or self-serving motivations. Such generalisations do not hold up to scrutiny. There are conclusions I can share from my conversations with many of my students (both undergrad and postgrad) from the mainland - an admittedly selective sample: 1. Jobs are at the top of minds for many. Many are concerned about unemployment after graduating (biye jiu shiye 畢業就失業). Such angst cuts across socioeconomic strata and education backgrounds - two Ivy League grads are applying for jobs for which they are overqualified on paper, yet would provide them with relative job security and stability. For many others, pursuing a further degree may be the best means of self-enhancement whilst biding time. 2. These students are passionate, aspirational, and incredibly driven. Some of the most stimulating conversations I have had over AI governance, the ethics of euthanasia, and the difference between authorising drone strikes and algorithm-based sentencing, were with students who came to Hong Kong in search of an open and boundless education. The work ethic, persistence, and industriousness exhibited and exemplary, and speak well to the success China has had over the past few decades. 3. Some are keen on further studies abroad, citing the abundance of economic and social mobility opportunities in the US and the UK. Others are keen on staying in Hong Kong, in making this highly cosmopolitan city on Chinese soil their home. Still, a couple of students with STEM and Maths backgrounds have expressed disquietude towards what they view to be systemic racism and geopolitical tensions, that have dimmed the allure of the 'Beacon' of America. Almost no one sees China as unequivocally superior to the US - despite the plethora of issues afflicting both countries. 4. Pigeonholing their attitudes and sentiments through caricatures is counterproductive. Progressive attitudes on social issues, genuine concern over climate change and global public health crises, could well be combined with a pragmatic respect for the plurality of ways in which countries are governed. Such acceptance is often combined with nuanced views on areas in which governance can and should be improved - from accountability to transparency, from the rule of law to navigating the state-market dynamic. Constructive criticism, I often say, is an obligation. 5. There is certainly the view that their generation may "have it tougher" than their parents. But such acknowledgment does not translate to fatalism or resignation. There's the 20-odd yo planning to 'slash' and take on three jobs at once, or the 30-odd yo with a young family who plans on starting their own business whilst saving up for PhD. For a Hong Konger like me, I feel blessed and constantly inspired and in awe of their entrepreneurial perseverance.

Good to be back in Hangzhou. Here in one of the new, emerging CBDs in this techno-commerce hub.

Nothing beats a couple of hours spent at Foyles. Managed to get my hands on a copy of Kerry Brown's excellent "The Great Reversal: Britain, China and the 400 Year Contest for Power", as well as Kamala Harris' "The Truths We Hold" - curiously parked next to a stack of JD Vance's claim to fame. More topically and in other news, Judith Butler's "Who's Afraid of Gender?" lucidly provides a serious rebuking to the 'moral outrage' and opprobrium towards the Paris Olympics opening. "Welcome book lovers, you are among friends." Always reassuring.

No. 10 Downing may change, Britain may change, but this city never changes - in a good way. :-) Great to be back in Oxford - the city of dreaming students (and spires, at that) - where I spent almost a decade cutting my teeth and making many unforgettable memories. British summers are the best!