Brightwave’s Post

Addressing Tomorrow’s Lithium Problem. The lithium that powers EV batteries is refined from compounds found in multi-coloured pools of salt-brine or hard rock, and quantities are measured in terms of lithium carbonate equivalent (#LCE). So, to power the vast quantity of #EVs being produced worldwide, a consistent and reliable supply of #lithium is required. However, with forecasted annual demand growth of up to 20% by 2030, the current supply of lithium will not be sufficient to meet the demand, and nearly double the amount will be required. https://lnkd.in/dwixT7JF

While cells represent the core technology enabling batteries, several other components, manufacturing processes, and value-added capabilities make up a complete energy storage system. This includes aspects such as battery packs, wiring, safety systems, cooling mechanisms, electronics, software controls, enclosures, installation, permitting, grid integration, and more. When evaluating overall battery economics, analysts cannot focus solely on underlying cell prices. The other elements noted above can comprise 50% or more of the costs for a finished battery system. Even as cells get cheaper, these balance-of-system components have significant impacts on end pricing. Furthermore, batteries bound for different end use applications often necessitate tailored designs, chemistries or performance capabilities that add costs. A short-duration grid storage system has divergent technical needs from longer-duration utility market batteries or those powering electric vehicles, for example. Unique product requirements bring associated engineering, production and testing expenses. Meanwhile, factors like transportation logistics, import taxes and tariffs also affect regional pricing differences for batteries globally. Even as leading manufacturers scale production to meet surging demand, battery prices vary notably between markets due to such local conditions and supply chain considerations. In summary, while battery cell price erosion remains a crucial dynamic shaping the energy transition, batteries are complex systems with diverse applications. Many cost factors beyond cell prices contribute substantially to ongoing battery innovation and their expanding competitiveness. The future for batteries remains bright, but understanding pricing nuances across this growing ecosystem is vital. #energystorage #blackout #smartvolt #nationalgrid #renewableenergy

Is the Lithium crisis already over? In 2021 and 2022 the price for #Lithium #Carbonate used in #EV #batteries rose from around 30.000 Yuan to around 600.000 Yuan, causing widespread concerns about dependencies and high cost for Lithium-Ion batteries. 2023 saw an equally impressive downturn to currently 96.500 Yuan per ton Lithium Carbonate due to growing oversupply. Battery companies took advantage of high inventories after an oversupply created by extensive Chinese government subsidies in 2021 and 2022. The developments led major market participants to predict that the next lithium shortage would not return until 2028. Previous investments in increasing supply could see the global supply of carbonate equivalents increase by 40% by 2024, deepening the ongoing surplus. Battery pack prices of Lithium-Iron-Phosphate (#LFP) have dropped to a record low of $95/kWh compared to last year (US$ 130/kWh). Packs made in #China are 11% cheaper than those made in the #US and 26% cheaper than packs made in #Europe. Battery demand across #electric #vehicles and stationary energy #storage is about to grow at a remarkable pace of 53% year-on-year, reaching 950 gigawatt-hours in 2023. Despite this growth, major #battery manufacturers reported lower capacity utilization rates for their plants, while demand fell short of suppliers’ expectations. As a result, many EV and battery makers revisited their production targets, which in turn lowered battery prices. Average battery pack prices are expected to drop again 2024. Technological innovation and manufacturing improvement should drive further declines in battery pack prices in the coming years. #lithiumbattery #lithiumbatterypack #electricvehicles #lithiumironphosphate Evelina Stoikou Volker Quaschning Claudia Kemfert Manfred Josef Hampel https://lnkd.in/e7NBvJwx https://lnkd.in/e_f2D8gQ

Have you seen our new energy storage supply, technology, and policy report? Some highlights: 👉 As the battery supply chain develops to satisfy growing demand from both the EV and utility sector, we see robust demand for lithium-ion batteries over the next few years, continuing it’s 37% annual growth rate 👉 By 2025, global battery cell capacity is expected to grow to roughly 3 times its 2022 level. U.S. capacity is expected to outpace Europe, due to the Inflation Reduction Act. 👉 Mature cell chemistries like lithium iron phosphate (LFP) and lithium nickel manganese cobalt oxides (NCM) are expected to continue to dominate the battery market for the near future. 👉 We dive deep into future prospects for emerging battery technologies, including lithium manganese iron phosphate (LMFP) cathodes, sodium-ion batteries, and solid-state batteries. Check the link below in the comments to read through our sample report. 🔗⬇️ #BESS #EnergyStorage #SupplyChain #EV

After a difficult couple of years which saw the trend of falling lithium battery prices temporarily reverse, a 14% drop in lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery pack cost from 2022-2023 has been recorded by BloombergNEF. #energystorage

After a difficult couple of years which saw the trend of falling lithium battery prices temporarily reverse, a 14% drop in lithium-ion (Li-ion) battery pack cost from 2022-2023 has been recorded by BloombergNEF. The market research and analysis group has published the new edition of its annual survey of battery pricing, finding that prices have been falling again this year after “unprecedented price increases” in 2022. https://lnkd.in/eAhU6CvM

Recently, the battery cell price of some companies has fallen below 0.4 yuan/Wh, reaching a low of 0.38 yuan/Wh, marking that battery cell prices have officially entered the 30-cent era. Limited by battery cost negotiations and the speed of transmission, the market had previously expected the unit price of battery cells to drop to 3 cents around the middle of the year. Since the first quarter, the prices of various upstream materials, such as lithium hexafluorophosphate, lithium carbonate, copper, ternary precursors, and lithium iron phosphate, have all seen a collective price increase. Even the news that BYD has increased the price of anode materials has weakened the Market expectations for battery cell prices to drop. However, judging from the current quotation of battery cells, the time point when the unit price of battery cells enters the era of 3 cents is still earlier than expected. According to relevant data from the National Bureau of Statistics, in the equipment manufacturing industry, the prices of new energy vehicle manufacturing and lithium battery manufacturing fell by 1.3% and 0.9% respectively. The price decline trend in the downstream auto market is higher than that of midstream battery cells, which also shows that the price pressure faced by the downstream auto market is still urgent. The strong demand for cost reduction is further transmitted, and the trend of further decline in the unit price of battery cells during the year will not change. 2024 will also be the year when the unit price of battery cells bottoms out. #WBE #Battery #EV #Energystorage

Battery Prices Have Plunged Over 50% – Have They Hit the Bottom Yet? 🔍Industry Update: According to the latest data from ICCSINO Database, the dynamics of the battery market have shifted significantly. As of August 22, 2024, the quoted prices for prismatic LFP (Lithium Iron Phosphate) battery cells have narrowed to a range of 0.295 to 0.52 yuan/Wh（$US0.04-0.07), marking a remarkable 56.7% decrease from the start of 2023. 📈Cost Reduction Expectations vs. Reality: Conventionally, the downstream electric vehicle industry anticipates a 5-10% annual reduction in EV battery prices due to expanded production capacity and technological advancements. However, from 2021 to 2022, the industry witnessed a supply-demand imbalance that pushed up prices for critical materials like LiPF6, additive VC, anode graphitization, and PVDF, resulting in an unexpected surge in cell costs. 🚀Market Correction in 2023: Fast-forwarding to 2023, the completion of industry expansion projects sparked a comprehensive decline in lithium-ion battery raw material prices, including lithium salts. This downward trend has cascaded down to reduce costs for batteries and entire vehicles. Notably, lithium carbonate, a pivotal cost factor, has experienced an 85.4% drop since January 2023, ushering in a new era of LFP battery cell pricing. 🔍Future Outlook: With the gradual implementation of previously announced lithium carbonate production projects, the oversupply scenario is projected to continue. Market sentiment suggests that the bottom price for lithium carbonate could settle around 60,000 to 65,000 yuan（US$8,400-9,100）, presenting further potential for price erosion from the current level of approximately 75,000 yuan (US$10,500). This trend may well contribute to continued fluctuations and downward pressure on battery cell pricing. Stay tuned for more industry insights and updates on LinkedIn! 🔔

Jorge Uzcategui provides a timely reminder that despite the supply-driven, cyclical price slump, demand for cobalt remains historical robust. Global cobalt demand is expected to rise 14% in 2024 (and at similar rates over the next several years) as Western markets are heavily invested in NCM cathode chemistries. Although still smaller by volume, North American and European EV sales are now growing faster than China’s. Benchmark Mineral Intelligence’s Q2 2024 Cobalt Forecast also provides an improved outlook for the global cobalt market balance, which is expected to return to equilibrium by 2026 and reverse to deficit beyond then. Factors behind this improved outlook include downgrades in supply growth from the DRC and Indonesia, upgrades to demand - as well as taking into account committed purchases from China’s State Reserve Bureau. We are building Australia's first cobalt refinery to deliver sulphate into the Allied nation battery materials supply chain. https://lnkd.in/gW2gUYeJ #cobalt #nickel #batterymetals #criticalminerals #electricvehicles #lithiumionbatteries #criticalrawmaterials #CleanEnergyTransition #energytransition #nometalsnotransition #greenpremium #FutureMadeinAustralia

Exciting news for the #Canadian battery supply chain today. #lithium #batteries #supplychain