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Uncertainty lingers in the air as experts debate the likelihood of a recession in the US economy. While some signals suggest a slowdown, others point to resilience. The question on everyone's mind is: will the US economy enter a recession? Mario Laghos latest article delves into the trends, signs, and signals that might give us a hint. Read on to get the lowdown and form your own opinion: https://lnkd.in/dhtA_cfJ. Let's spark a conversation

When the US economy sneezes, the world economy catches a cold. This sentence captures the importance of understanding the nuances of the US economy, and it is not just for businesses but also for investors, bankers, and even households outside the USA. The US economy is the driver of the global economy. #usa #akountomanagement #akountoceoandfounder #akountoteam #akountosnoiyamalik https://lnkd.in/gNZaqeKX

By most quantitative metrics, the economy is doing great right now. But if you are like most Americans, it feels quite the opposite. Why, and what can you do about it? Here are my thoughts (and my takeaway at the bottom). First, let's take a look at some numbers 📈. - Gross Domestic Product (GDP): Up 3.4% in Q4 2023 and 1.6% in 2024. Up is 👍. - Inflation (measured by Consumer Price Index [CPI]): Down from 40-year high of 9.1% in June 2022 to 3.4% in April 2024 (down 0.1% from March). Down is 👍. - S&P 500 Index: All time highs in 2024. Higher is 👍. - Unemployment rate: Down from 14.8% in April 2020 to 3.9% in April 2024. Lower is 👍. So why do just about all of us feel so crummy about the economy? It's probably a combination of two factors: a) even though the rate of inflation has come down, and (kinda) continues to do so, prices are still 3.4% higher today than they were this time last year. And this time last year they were 4.9% higher than the year before that, which were 8.3% higher from the year before that. That's a 15%+ average increase in prices in about two years. In other words, just about everything costs a whole lot more today than it did two or three years ago, and we haven't forgotten. And it's hitting our pocket books. Total household debt, including credit card spending, and credit card payment delinquency is also on the rise. b) interest rates are high. The loans people can afford are smaller today than they were a couple years ago. Materials to build a home cost more, as well. And credit card rates are higher, too. Most of this, however, is outside of our control. So, what CAN we do about it? a) reduce spending on wants and focus more on needs. Although it's hard to cut back on things that we're accustomed to having, ask yourself: Do I really NEED [e.g. multiple streaming subscriptions]? Probably not. Maybe I cycle through one every few months and save myself ~$50/mo. Ideas like this and more can be found in a free money/budgeting coaching program that Thrivent offers called Money Canvas. Google it, and yes, it's really free. b) this kind of environment is hard on spenders, so be a saver instead and take advantage of the high interest rates. Money market accounts are yielding over 5% right now. High-yield savings accounts are also doing great. TAKEAWAY: In sum (my favorite phrase from when I was an academic), a) quantitatively, the economy is actually doing great, but b) qualitatively—how it feels—isn't. Work with a money coach, increase your cash flow by reducing spending, and start taking advantage of higher interest rates by being a saver, not a spender. See Thrivent.com/social for important disclosures.

What's the latest with the economy as we continue our way through summer? With the midpoint of 2024 here, we are taking a look back at the start of the year while simultaneously looking ahead to what’s on the horizon.

Synopsis of DFM’s latest American. Weekly Macro-Economic thoughts. - Overview: Recent comments from the FED support our central thesis that the next move would be a cut rates in Q3 2024. - Economic growth: Growth surprised on the upside but the strength being observed will not be maintained for long since one of the biggest drivers was public spending which is expected to moderate. Consumer spending is tapering, so a combination of these factors will be reflected in lower growth going forward. - Inflation: A decreasing trend has been seen since the summer of 2022, and we do not expect major upward pressure on inflation to recent highs (8% in 2022). - Labour market: The labour market continues to tell us that it is increasingly difficult to find a job putting pressure on the Fed to resist any calls for a hike. - Housing market: Housing affordability is low, mortgage rates remain high and during September house prices also increased. This only benefits homeowner as the price of their homes is increasing in value. - Consumer Confidence: Consumer confidence rose, however, two-thirds of those surveyed still expect a recession in the next 12 months. Rate increases and increases in inflation continue to be of concern. To read more about our thoughts on each of these points, please go to

https://lnkd.in/eB69RgSY Welcome to the era of stagflation. The US GDP growth for the first quarter of 2024, a crucial indicator of economic health, was revised downward from 1.6% to 1.3%. This figure, less than half the growth of the third quarter of 2023, which was 3.4%, paints a stark picture of our economic trajectory. The slowdown in economic growth hinged on consumers spending less this past quarter. That is understandable. Consumers are facing record credit card, auto, and mortgage debt. Consumer prices rose by 3.3% during the first quarter of 2024. This expense chokehold is a double whammy of the higher cost of goods and the higher cost of carrying debt to purchase them. Keeping score. Inflation beat growth. That is a classic stagflation scenario. The Fed doesn't like that word. That's why it underscores what it deems a stable employment picture as evidence that stagflation doesn't describe our current economic environment. (People taking multiple jobs to make ends meet, notwithstanding.) The Fed can't control supply-side or event-driven inflation. Commodity prices are rising. Its higher-for-longer rate policy has increased debt burdens for individuals, businesses, and the government. Banks are sitting on more than half a trillion dollars of unrealized losses, and liquidity is declining. None of that suggests economic growth will beat inflation any time soon.

😞Consumers have a gloomy view of the economy despite several positive economic trends, largely because prices are continuing to rise and interest rates are still high. How has the “vibecession” impacted the sales of your products? What does it mean for your brand’s product, marketing, sales, and distribution strategies? Comment below or message us at Cairn Commercial Strategy or Dennis Hupp.

A new Bloomberg article now posits that the recent expansion in GDP growth and market indices is driven *by* rate hikes. The scariest phrasing is proponents of this idea saying, "it’s different this time." In order to believe that rate hikes can stimulate the economy, one would have to believe in modern monetary theory (diametrically opposed to neoclassical theory). But investors such as David Einhorn have said that payments from higher coupons on US Bonds have added more wealth than the higher rates on consumer debt have subtracted wealth: "Einhorn notes that US households receive income on more than $13 trillion of short-term interest-bearing assets, almost triple the $5 trillion in consumer debt, *excluding mortgages*, that they have to pay interest on. At today’s rates, that translates to a net gain for households of some $400 billion a year, he estimates." Since consumers locked in fixed-rate mortgages at pandemic lows, they haven't felt the brunt of rate hikes, hence the economic machine remains resilient and the FOMC has continued to signal that rates will remain elevated. In the face of that news, markets reacted negatively before pulling up on the heels of positive earnings from Microsoft and Alphabet. I believe that the markets remaining strong in the high rate environment is more so a "transition" period. The average rates on mortgages cannot remain below 4% forever as wealth has to change hands, and not to mention the Case-Shiller home price index remains at an all-time high. Additionally, growth in alternatives like private credit could serve to cloud some of the defaults and instability in corporate debt. Just a few months ago, it seemed like the biggest concern of investors and economists was the rate hikes, and now it simultaneously looks like rate cuts wouldn't help anyone. What a time to be alive!

The latest US GDP data shows that it has grown at a 1.3% annualized rate, down from the 1.6% reflected in the first estimate. That was largely due to a downward revision to consumer spending, which accounts for about 70% of the US economy. Spending advanced 2% in the January-through-March period, compared to the initial rate of 2.5%. The latest GDP report also showed that corporate profits, before taxes, fell 0.6% in the first quarter, the first decline in a year and down sharply from the 4.1% increase in the prior three-month period. Still, while most corporate earnings results this quarter proved decent, companies indicated it’s become increasingly difficult for them to pass on costs to consumers. Home sales based on contract signings declined more than expected. Mortgage rates also increased, surpassing the 7% threshold. Inflation in the first quarter was revised lower, strengthening the case for rate cuts. Despite some improvement in housing supply, tough borrowing costs have dampened home buying, leading to a frozen housing market. jobless claims have been trending higher, but they are still within economists' expectations. #useconomydata #housingsales #joblessclaims https://lnkd.in/dNMttQbH

As we reach the midpoint of 2024, we reflect on the year's beginning and cast our eyes forward to what lies ahead. In the coming weeks, we'll dice into a few perspectives on the economic and market landscapes, covering crucial topics like the economy, stocks, bonds, geopolitics, and the upcoming election. This week, we begin with an in-depth review of the economy. #ClarityAhead