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📢 Exciting news, everyone! 🎉 A new report has just been released, revealing the real culprit behind higher prices and inflation. And guess what? It's not as bad as we thought! 😄 Inflation has been on a steady decline throughout 2023, inching closer to the Federal Reserve's 2% target. This is fantastic news because it increases the likelihood of achieving a soft landing for our economy, without triggering a recession. 📉💪 According to data from NASDAQ, inflation dropped from a peak of 7.1% in 2022 to a more manageable 3% in November. And that's not all! The major agencies reported one of the best months of the year, indicating a positive trend in the market. 📈 However, despite these encouraging signs, we understand that many of us are still feeling the pinch of high prices. But here's the silver lining: a recent bank rate survey found that a majority of workers received pay raises this year! 🙌💰 Although it may not have completely kept up with inflation, it's a step in the right direction. So, let's focus on the positives, my friends! The economy is showing signs of stability, inflation is gradually decreasing, and more people are receiving pay raises. 🌟💸 It's a testament to our resilience and the efforts being made to ensure a brighter future for all. Let's remain optimistic and continue supporting each other through these challenging times. Together, we can overcome any obstacles and build a stronger, more prosperous community. 💪❤️ #PositiveVibesOnly #EconomicUpdate #InflationReport #BuildingABetterFuture

What's the Buzz in the Industry right now.... Powell Says Rate Cuts Are ‘Likely’ Appropriate This Year: In a speech at the Stanford School of Business, Jerome Powell stated that if the economy evolves as they expect, it will be appropriate to lower rates at some point this year. He noted that inflation is coming down, but that the Fed has time to let incoming data guide their decision making and that additional confidence is needed with regard to inflation coming down before any rate cuts. Jobless Claims Increase More Than Expected: New claims for unemployment benefits increased by 9,000 and hit a 2-month high of 221,000 for the week of March 30. The expectation from economists was for the report to come in around 214,000, but it is important to note that Easter and the holiday week could have played a factor. In total, the labor market remains strong and has been a key contributor to the economy's health #EarnThePartnership #RocketProTPO #Detroit

⬆️ Upward movement in the US10Y yield tends to signal one of the following: 📍 The Fed does not have a secure handle on inflation. 📍 The U.S. economy is strengthening. I believe the subtle retreat in the US10Y yield is due to the soft ADP and the decline in oil. Both factors suggest a balanced perspective on the U.S. economy is more prudent than a recessionary or expansionary view. If Nonfarm Payrolls (the government's survey) trends similarly to ADP, I suspect it would be enough to have yields settle into a new range. 📢 The primary beneficiary of this outcome: the NASDAQ. 📈 That being said, 4.35% is now support for the US10Y. Without substantial indications of economic weakness, I would not expect a challenge of that level.

What to watch this week, with most implications for rate market: *J Powell already said what he wanted to say about the last 3 month of bump in infaltion, there should not be any surprise in press conference, there is chance he might turn a little bit dovish. *QRA and its composition might act as catalyst but since everyone has been watching it.There should not be any surprise there, since Yellen knows long end of curve is watching the QRA like a hawk and she will most probably keep most of new issuance in bills. *What can drive the rate market is "employment cost index" and "non-farm productivity" data and in case if they fall below Q1 inflation data, rate market can face more volitility. Q4 2023 data was supporting easing wage pressure and huge productivity gain. However with Q1 2024 real GDP data at 1.6 % and average working hour increasing, upcoming productivity will be skewed toward down side. Plus hot Q1 2024 3.7% Core PCE, there is a high hurdle to jump. Here is a summary of the most economic data coming this week in the U.S. 1. FOMC May policy statement: The FOMC will release its May policy statement on Wednesday. 2. Treasury Quarterly Refunding Announcement: The announcement will be released on Wednesday at 8:30 a.m. 3. Employment cost index: This is a measure of the costs of employing workers, so a rise in this index means that workers are earning more. 4. Job openings in March: This data gives a sense of the overall health of the job market. 5. Monthly jobs report for April: The report will include the unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost and the wage growth rate. #economy #interestrates #gdp #cpi #inflation #growth #federalreserve #stocks #cuts

Check out this article from USA TODAY: Here's where the economy stands as the Fed makes its interest rate decision this week https://lnkd.in/ekAbvrRT

Check out this article from USA TODAY: Here's where the economy stands as the Fed makes its interest rate decision this week https://lnkd.in/ed7YMXK7

Key economic indicators released over the past week highlight mixed signals in the U.S. economy. The ISM Manufacturing Index for July remained steady from the prior month. However, the labor market showed signs of cooling with a 187K increase in Nonfarm Payrolls, slightly below expectations.

The Wall Street Journal article examines: 1. **Heard on the Street:** The Fed faces the challenge of preparing for rate cuts despite a solid jobs report indicating a cooling labor market and falling inflation. 🏦📉 2. **Key Points:** - The latest employment report shows a rise of 199,000 jobs, driven partially by the end of auto strikes, with a decreased unemployment rate of 3.7%. 📊📈 - Average hourly earnings increased by 4%, reflecting improved worker buying power amid cooling inflation. 💵❄️ - Despite hopes for a signal on maintaining rates, investors were disappointed, leading to a Treasury sell-off and higher yields. 💸📈 3. **Upcoming Concerns:** - The Fed, led by Jerome Powell, might need to consider lowering rates in early 2024 as the strong job market is slowing, and there's no significant inflationary pressure. 📆📉 4. **Reasons for Rate Cut:** - The job market slowdown suggests a need for a more accommodative stance as the Fed's target on overnight rates is deemed restrictive. 🚦 - The job market's impact on inflation appears manageable, with productivity gains supporting the Fed's 2% inflation target. 📊🔄 - Inflation has cooled, with the core measure of the preferred gauge at 3.5% in October, indicating a likelihood of further decline. ❄️📉 5. **Fed's Likely Stance:** - The Fed may maintain a "bias to tighten" as a precaution, but projections might indicate a slightly lower interest rate target by the end of next year. 📉📈 - If the job market continues to slow and inflation cools further, policymakers may shift towards a more accommodative approach to avoid a recession. 🔄📉 6. **Closing Thoughts:** The delicate balance between managing inflation, supporting the job market, and avoiding a recession remains a key challenge for the Fed. 💼📉 #EconomicOutlook #FederalReserve #Inflation #JobMarket https://lnkd.in/gWcsnBFw Please like 👍, comment below 👇, or share 👉. Click the 🔔 in my profile to get notified of my posts. And follow me for more content like this.