Sometimes, in the numbers game that is the lifeblood of a #realestate journalist, the numbers just get wonky. And weird. And don't make sense at face value. So we dive in and attempt to explain. #realestateinvesting #housing #mortgage #mortgagerates #economy #finance #fed #interestrates Robert Dietz National Association of Home Builders National Association of REALTORS®CoreLogic Selma Hepp, PhD
Wonky=MSM clickbait headlines crashing into reality. What, now you decide to look at things like the pros in the field? Welcome to the real world where what the MSM vomits out is always old news and rarely accurate here in the micro market dirt. What's up? The MSM actually beginning to slow on the gaslighting of late? Interesting.
I think we are missing the insurance/risk issues. Purchase prices are one thing but insuring the assets, especially in the increasingly hazard prone south is a whole other issue.
All real estate is local. It depends on where you are, what market. I’m Seeing increasing supply of new homes exceeding the sales, with weeks of supply increasing. It’s July, only 2 prime months left before school starts, which is when the market slows. I think smart local builders will offer incentives or lower pricing to move the product. Otherwise by the end of October -November, they’re gonna be wishing they had sold them before Labor Day! So Buyers, the opportunity is coming. And when it arrives, pull the trigger or you’ll miss out.
The US residential real estate market has seized. Inventory piling up everywhere. Prices falling and will continue falling until demand is sparked by realistic pricing. If prices are rising in a few spots, those spots have been previously hammered.
Interesting perspective, keep up the great work. 👍
“National data is not local data” can help to explain this phenomenon too.
This is the unique driver to the 'wonky' numbers in the housing market today: "Millions of borrowers refinanced at the lows and now have no desire to move because they would have to trade a 3% or 4% rate on their loans to the current rate, which is around 7%." (quoting from your article, Diana Olick). This is what's freezing up the market and creating dynamics we've never seen before.
On Long Island, properly marketed homes are still selling above list price. Inventory is still relatively low. And newly constructed single family homes are rare here, unlike the over-built south and southwest. All real estate is local. And, as Mark Twain once said, “There are 3 kinds of lies: lies, damned lies, and statistics.”
https://www.gofundme.com/f/help-me-to-rebuild-my-life-and-home Please help me and my family to get survival and safety 🙏🍉💔
Senior Vice President, Consulting at John Burns Research and Consulting
3wIf you dig into the new home supply number, you will find that a good number are in contract with builders. The only "true" inventory of new homes is completed, unsold homes. There might be 9 months of inventory of all types under construction, but a lot of those are contracted and will close to a buyer when completed.