Dimitri Zabelin’s Post

WOW. What a weekend of geopolitical developments. Let's dive straight in ⬇ 🇺🇸Donald Trump to place 100% tariff on all goods from countries shifting away from the US Dollar, if elected President (this deserves its own article). 🇮🇱Israeli strikes on targets inside Syria. 🇮🇳India has signed a 10 year deal with Iran, to fund the building of Iran's largest shipping port. This will connect India to the new Russian Shipping lane in the previous point. 🇰🇵North Korea's provision of weapons has strengthened Russia's hand in Ukraine by allowing it to keep its arsenals stocked at home, Germany's top military official said during a visit to South Korea on Monday. 🇺🇸Donald Trump says he will remove US sanctions on Russia because it's hurting the dollar. 🇻🇪Venezuela says opposition presidential candidate Urrutia has sought asylum in Spain. 🇩🇪Germany accused Poland of obstructing its investigation into the Ukrainian diver accused of sabotaging the Nord Stream pipeline. Poland did not follow up on executing the European warrant issued for Volodymyr Z. Polish authorities forcefully deny this. 🇨🇳China called on the Philippines to "seriously consider the future" of a relationship "at a crossroads" in a Monday commentary published by the People's Daily, the newspaper of the governing Communist Party, amid tensions in the South China Sea. 🇮🇷Iran has warned Russia against supporting Azerbaijan, calling the border dispute a "red line" for Iran. 🇪🇺Mario Draghi has demanded a “new industrial strategy for Europe”, calling on the EU to raise investments by €800bn a year to fund radical and rapid reform to stop the union falling behind the US and China.  🇺🇸Not weekend news, but tomorrow is the first presidential debate between Harris and Trump. For this and more, subscribe to Pantheon Insights: https://lnkd.in/gEzriB22

Deglobalization🌎 is inherently inflationary, but it’s not all bad news for everyone. Here’s why: Countries with proactive supply chain strategies are leveraging geopolitical fragmentation to their advantage. Specifically, the bifurcating nature of the US🇺🇸-China🇨🇳 rivalry. Excerpt from Time Magazine: “Intel is investing $7 billion in new facilities [on the Malaysian🇲🇾island of] Penang, including an advanced packaging site codenamed “pelican” for transformative “3D” semiconductors—which stack chips on top of each other to boost performance—set to open early next year” On the other side of the world⬇️ In Mexico🇲🇽, FDI topped $31 billion in the first six months of the year, an all-time high according to the country’s Ministry of Economy. This year is pacing 7% higher than 2023. But there are other players making major moves to capitalize on this trend. See who they are here⬇️ https://lnkd.in/drcAqBC5

Food for thought: we've heard about how AI will wipe out jobs, but what about job creation? I have a strange theory I'd love to get everyone's thoughts on ⬇ Will a new market develop for AI trainers? For perspective, think of what we already have in this regard: 💪Fitness trainers 🗣Motivational trainers 👩💻Digital trainers (Public relations, social media experts, etc) the list goes on. All of the information is theoretically already out there, but not everyone knows how to sift fact from fiction, charlatan from professional. So you hire a legitimate expert in these domains. So why should we exclude AI trainers? Let's say you want to create an AI agent to fulfill specific tasks, but you're not sure how to train it. So you hire an AI trainer to modify your agent to your exact specifications. Now, you could argue that you could just "AI" it and ask, say, ChapGPT to develop a step-by-step model. The problem is AI is still finicky and inconsistent. So, you still need a human touch that understands that system better than it understands itself. Who knows if this could develop into companies creating AI agents that you can rent out for specific tasks? This is just speculation, but I think the underlying commercial opportunities are fascinating to explore and could temper the more gloomy presentiments we get from an AI and data-driven society. What are your thoughts? If you like these ideas, subscribe to Pantheon Insights for more: https://lnkd.in/gEzriB22

European Union🇪🇺 countries import more gas from Russia🇷🇺 than from the United States🇺🇸 for the first time in two years. According to the Brussels-based think tank Bruegel, "the EU purchased more than 12.7 billion cubic metres of natural gas from Russia and 12.3 billion from the US from April to June this year, the study shows". "Incongruent" would be an understatement to describe the disparity between the EU's stance vis-a-vis Russia's invasion and its energy imports. One potential policy a German lawmaker proposed was to “pay a fixed amount for aid and arms deliveries to Ukraine for every cubic metre of Russian gas imported". If this were a relationship, it would be like saying “For every time I (EU) engage with my ex (Russia), I’ll buy you (Ukraine) a gift to show my commitment to us". The absurdity is clear. Two on-the-surface problems I see developing: 1. It would reduce the EU's leverage in negotiating energy deals by making aid to Ukraine contingent on gas imports, thus weakening the EU's bargaining power in both energy and diplomatic arenas 2. It de facto implies that the EU is willing to support Ukraine only as long as it continues to fuel the Russian economy through energy purchases. All in all, I do not envy where the EU is right now politically (ahead of the US election), economically (demographics), and financially (high regulation). For more insights (and less sarcasm), subscribe to Pantheon Insights: https://lnkd.in/gEzriB22

"But Ukraine and its allies should show caution - pushing and poking a nuclear-armed bear into a corner seldom ends well". See the full Weekly Insight here: https://lnkd.in/gihB8vHF

To my fellow Americans, happy Labor Day! To everyone else working, here's a breakdown of geopolitics over the weekend you can have with your coffee ⬇ 🇷🇺Russian air defenses intercepted and destroyed 158 Ukrainian drones overnight, including two over Moscow and nine over the surrounding region (AP). 🇮🇱Protestors took to the streets of Tel Aviv, Israel, calling for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to resign. 🇺🇸Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has sued North Carolina to remove his name from the presidential ballot. 🇧🇷X website ordered by court to be taken down within 24 hours in Brazil, app stores told to remove the app within 5 days. 🇨🇳China has escalated tensions in the South China Sea by ramming another Philippine vessel within internationally recognized Philippine waters. 🇸🇩War in Sudan continues, with the UN declaring a famine for only the third time in 20 years. A Weekly Insight detailing the conflict will be published next Monday. 🇦🇲 In a press conference on Saturday, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that his government has made a formal offer to Azerbaijan to sign a peace treaty, after judging that sufficient progress has been made on key issues in bilateral talks in recent months (Politico). 🇹🇷Turkey has submitted an application to join the BRICS. 🇪🇹A burgeoning military alliance between Somalia and Egypt has escalated tensions in the Horn of Africa, prompting Ethiopia to warn it won’t remain passive in the face of potential regional destabilization. Ethiopia’s unease stems from its ongoing dispute with Egypt over the Nile and its ambition to secure a seaport, now threatened by Somalia's growing ties with Cairo and Ethiopia’s controversial agreement with Somaliland. The deployment of Egyptian military assets to Mogadishu marks the beginning of this alliance, further straining Ethiopia-Somalia relations as both sides exchange sharp rhetoric. A Weekly Insight detailing the conflict will be published next week. For more, subscribe to Pantheon Insights: https://lnkd.in/gEzriB22

Just completed my second Magic Markets podcast with Mohammed Yaseen Nalla, CFA on investment opportunities in quantum computing ⬇ In this episode, we discussed: ⚛Basic principles of quantum mechanics e.g. superposition, entanglement, parallelism, and coherence 📈Economic applications e.g. logistics, agriculture, cryptography, precision medicine, etc 🌪Tailwinds and headwinds from geopolitical trends and macroeconomic dynamics and more: https://lnkd.in/gnJPJrh5 *Not financial advice.

As I wrote in my weekly insight on Monday, minerals and the supply chains delivering them are being weaponized. Here is the latest update from China🇨🇳 Per the Financial Times: "China has hit back at US-led restrictions on semiconductor sales by seeking to throttle exports of two metals used in chipmaking and communications equipment, as the geopolitical tit-for-tat between the two superpowers steps up. Gallium and germanium will be subject to export restrictions in order to “safeguard national security and interests”, China’s Ministry of Commerce and Administration of Customs said on Monday. Exporters will have to apply to the ministry for permits from the beginning of August, it said". From my weekly insight: https://lnkd.in/gz2n9Zaa "Last year, China enforced restrictions on gallium and germanium exports on the basis of national security, mirroring US justifications for their restrictions of semiconductor cross-border sales. China’s measures prompted US policymakers to accelerate efforts to “de-risk” and “diversify supply chains” from China i.e. decouple. Chinese officials have warned that these restrictive measures in response to US technology restrictions are “just the beginning of China’s countermeasures". Stay ahead of trends, subscribe to Pantheon Insights in the link below.

Top five countries by the total number of active-duty military personnel ⬇ 🇨🇳China: ~2.03 million active-duty troops. - China maintains the largest active-duty military force in the world, supported by a massive reserve and paramilitary force. 🇮🇳India: ~1.45 million active-duty troops. - India has a large military, reflecting its regional security challenges and global strategic interests. 🇺🇸United States: ~1.38 million active-duty troops. - The U.S. has a highly advanced military force with significant global reach and capabilities. 🇰🇵North Korea: ~1.28 million active-duty troops. - North Korea maintains one of the largest militaries relative to its population size, with a significant proportion of its population serving in the military. 🇷🇺Russia: ~1.15 million active-duty troops. - Russia's military is among the largest in the world, with plans to expand to 1.5 million by 2026 as part of ongoing modernization efforts. 3/5 of these militaries have an adversarial relationship with the West. You will also notice that apart from the US, the largest militaries are in Asia. Parag Khanna was correct in more way than one when he titled his book "The Future is Asian". From a macro perspective, the heart of the world will beat in Asia. For more, subscribe to Pantheon Insights: https://lnkd.in/gEzriB22

See my latest Weekly Insight below ⬇ If you want to stay ahead of the curve and receive it a day before everyone else, subscribe to get it in your inbox every Monday at 6:00 AM Pacific https://lnkd.in/gEzriB22