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The Israel-Hamas war has renewed fears of a Taiwan invasion that surfaced after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022. A year later, then foreign minister Qin Gang urged countries to 'stop making an uproar by shouting ‘Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan’. He also warned that ''the pressures and attempts to contain China, coming from the outside, are getting stronger and stronger…posing a serious threat to China’s sovereignty and security.'' New conflicts in other parts of the world always stir speculation that Beijing could strike when the US government is distracted from its eastward pivot. You can read more about it in Enodo Economics’ newest blog post. #China #Taiwan #US #Hamas #Israel #Ukraine 

The Israel-Hamas war has renewed fears of a Taiwan invasion that surfaced after Vladimir Putin invaded Ukraine in February 2022. A year later, then foreign minister Qin Gang urged countries to 'stop making an uproar by shouting ‘Today Ukraine, Tomorrow Taiwan’. He also warned that ''the pressures and attempts to contain China, coming from the outside, are getting stronger and stronger…posing a serious threat to China’s sovereignty and security.'' New conflicts in other parts of the world always stir speculation that Beijing could strike when the US government is distracted from its eastward pivot. You can read more about it in Enodo Economics’ newest blog post. #China #Taiwan #US #Hamas #Israel #Ukraine 

Russia’s Putin eyes greater support from China for Ukraine war effort In a visit also focused on trade, the Russian leader hails the partnership with China that guarantees energy security. 17 May 2024 Russian President Vladimir Putin is wrapping up his visit to neighbouring China, aiming to win greater support from Beijing for his military operation in Ukraine and expand crucial trade to his country’s increasingly isolated economy. https://aje.io/86f0re Russia and China’s partnership has only grown closer since the invasion of Ukraine, and Beijing has rebuffed Western claims that it is aiding Moscow’s war effort while offering a critical economic lifeline with trade hitting $240bn in 2023.

Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmytro Kuleba is set to visit China for two days of discussions aimed at persuading Beijing to lessen its support for Russia and to back Ukraine's efforts for sustainable peace. The primary focus will be on ways to halt Russian aggression and China's potential role in achieving peace. China, a key ally of Russia, has not condemned the invasion of Ukraine but denies providing support. The planned talks were initiated by China’s foreign minister. Despite China's past call for a political settlement, Ukraine dismissed the proposal, with Western nations warning it could allow Russia to keep captured territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy recently hosted a peace summit in Switzerland without Russian participation, resulting in China's absence and accusations of collaboration with Russia against Zelenskyy. In recent months, both Ukraine and Russia have intensified attacks targeting each other's energy infrastructure amid ongoing conflict. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #China Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/g6zsHm-q

Russian President Vladimir Putin is set to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, solidifying their partnership despite pressure from the US over Russia's invasion of Ukraine. The visit is expected to focus on economic ties, with Putin likely to push for further support from China, particularly in the war economy sector. While China has not provided actual weapons or ammunition for Russia's war effort, the meeting between Putin and Xi is seen as a form of support for Russia. However, there are lingering mutual mistrust and limits to the relationship, with some Russian elites skeptical of becoming dependent on China for resources. Despite these concerns, economic ties between Russia and China have continued to strengthen in recent years. #AsiaRisk #GeopoliticalConflictandDisputes #Japan Follow us for daily updates on risk and operations in Asia! https://lnkd.in/d26Ehvsh

"With the West taking on Russia and China almost simultaneously, the relationship between Beijing and Moscow has also undergone a slow, but steady, transformation. This was aptly reflected in the 7,000-word joint statement that was issued during Russian President Vladimir Putin's two-day visit to China last week, which underlined that "Russian-Chinese relations stand the test of rapid changes in the world, demonstrating strength and stability, and are experiencing the best period in their history". ... China, for its part, has consistently claimed neutrality in the Ukraine conflict, positioning itself as a potential peace broker in the conflict even as the war has allowed it to bolster its economic, strategic, and diplomatic ties with Russia. During Putin's visit last week, Beijing and Moscow vowed to "deepen" military "trust and cooperation" with a resolution to increase joint exercises and combat training, conduct regular joint sea and air patrols, and enhance their "capabilities and level of joint response to challenges and threats". Putin's delegation included key security and defence officials, which underscored the growing military alignment between the two sides. ... While the Russian economy is now cut off from the West, China is seeking a rebalancing as its own economy faces negative headwinds. Putin is seeking Chinese help in financing a war that has gone on for longer than he had anticipated at the beginning. And he was effusive in his praises, describing his relationship with Xi as "as close as brothers" and China's economy as "developing in leaps and bounds, at a fast pace". Xi Jinping was more circumspect in his remarks, and there were no big deals that were signed during the visit. It was the pomp and circumstance around the visit that was meant to convey the defiance of Beijing, which is willing to embrace, though cautiously, a leader who is a virtual pariah in the West. The partnership, aimed at reshaping the global order, is thus driven by shared geopolitical interests. ... Given India's continuing reliance on Russian military hardware, closer Sino-Russian ties might influence the terms and conditions of these transactions, potentially limiting India's access to advanced technologies or altering the balance of military support." https://lnkd.in/eMBXqypS

How can anyone oppose people who are trying to negotiate PEACE? The Russia-Ukraine war, in addition to the loss of lives and terrible destruction, threatens to divide the world into blocs again. It is in Hungary's interest to maintain open, peaceful and dynamic economic relations with the countries of the world. Orban is just like Xi and Erdogan working on a peaceful solution not like the NATO the escalation of the crisis.... How will the NATO reinvent itself to defend PEACE again and not provoke wars? Not just the Ukraine Conflict also think about the activity by the NATO in Asia! Wikileaks shows NATO s role in Ukraine Crisis.... The move by NATO to extend the alliance to the Russian border is a controversial one that violates the spirit, if not the letter, of a February 1990 agreement between then Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev, U.S. Secretary of State James Baker, and Chancellor Helmut Kohl of Germany. The issue at the time was Germany and NATO. Under the treaty ending World War II, the Soviets had a right to keep troops in Eastern Germany. The U.S. and the Germans were trying to negotiate a reunion of the two Germanys that would remove the 380,000 Soviet troops in the East, while maintaining U.S. and NATO forces in the West. The Russians were willing to exit their troops, but only if U.S. and NATO forces did not fill the vacuum. On Feb. 9, Gorbachev told Baker “any extension of the zone of NATO would be unacceptable.” Baker assured him that “NATO’s jurisdiction would not shift one inch eastward.” The Baker-Gorbachev meeting was followed the next day by a meeting between Gorbachev and West German Chancellor Helmut Kohl, who assured the Soviet leader that “naturally NATO could not expand its territory” into East Germany. And, in a parallel meeting between West German Foreign Minister Hans-Dietrich Genscher and Soviet Foreign Minister Eduard Shevardnadze, Genscher told Shevardnadze “for us, it stands firm: NATO will not expand to the East.”

https://lnkd.in/dfmw7H_v China is the true power in Putin and Kim’s budding friendship By Laura Bicker JUNE 19, 2024 The welcome hug on the tarmac at 03:00, the honour guard of mounted soldiers, the huge portraits of Kim Jong Un and Vladimir Putin hanging side by side in the centre of Pyongyang – all of this was designed to worry the West. Mr Putin’s first visit to Pyongyang since 2000 was a chance for Russia and North Korea to flaunt their friendship. And flaunt it they did, with Mr Kim declaring his “full support” for Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Seoul, Tokyo, Washington and Brussels will see great peril in those words and in the stage-managed meeting. But the fact is the two leaders feel they need each other - Mr Putin badly requires ammunition to keep the war going and North Korea needs money. However, the real power in the region was not in Pyongyang – and nor did it want to be. Mr Putin and Mr Kim were bonding on China’s doorstep and so would have been wary of provoking Beijing, a vital source of both trade and clout for these two sanctioned regimes. And even as Mr Putin hails his “firm friendship” with Mr Kim, he must know it has a limit. And that limit is Chinese President Xi Jinping.

Two new elements provide interesting thought about the future. Admiral Dong Jun, China Defense minister, visited Southern Ukraine briefly in late April embedded with Russian forces (rumors found on Youtube, but likely since he posed with a famous Russian blogger). There, the same admiral seemed to have said that Russians and Ukrainians are good fighters and was impressed by both armies. I am sure that he had more to say to the Chinese Defense Committee. Russian Federation President Vladimir Putin's visit to Beijing was probably interesting despite signing more mutual defense and trade agreements . From their talks in English, I am sure that they discussed Ukraine (interesting transcripts by both governments despite being diplomatic and meant for the general public and foreign news agencies). Putin in his Saturday Press conference upon his return from China mentioned Kharkhiv, but there is much more in that conference and the one held in Beijing. People Republic of China President Xi Jinping wants a truce between Ukraine and Russia since neither side can win in the next ten months. Xi Jinping wants also a truce that is not agreable to either side (a statu quo of battle lines and Russia and Ukraine allies paying for the rebuilding of Ukraine infrastructures via the United Nations and its agencies). The war has cost more than half of China trade with Europe since France, the United Kingdom, and Germany buy far less Chinese goods despite the huge increase in trade with Russia (220 billion Euros worth paid in Yuans between July, 2023 and April, 2024 - the transcripts). With the money given to Ukraine, European countries buy less from China (from 365 billions Euros in 2022 to less than 130 Billion between July, 2023 and April, 2024 - data from a Google search from reliable websites). The Ukrainian ambassador in Beijing should ask for more information despite not agreeing with those terms from the Chinese Foreign ministry (information is always useful and it's diplomatic).

#China / #Russia - Putin announces plans to visit China in May - The Associated Press: Russian President Vladimir Putin said Thursday he plans to visit China in May, in what could become the first foreign trip for the Russian leader after he extended his rule by six more years in an election that offered voters little real choice. Putin announced the plans for the visit at a congress of the Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs in Moscow. He didn’t say when exactly it would take place and didn’t offer any other details. Putin’s inauguration is scheduled for May 7, Russian lawmakers said earlier this week. Last month, the 71-year-old Russian leader secured his fifth term in office in a vote with no real opposition, extending his 24-year rule. Russia’s growing economic and diplomatic isolation because of its war against Ukrainehas made it increasingly reliant on China, its former rival for leadership of the Communist bloc during the Cold War. According to a recent U.S. assessment, China has surged sales to Russia of machine tools, microelectronics and other technology that Moscow in turn is using to produce missiles, tanks, aircraft and other weaponry for use in the conflict. China has repeatedly said it isn’t providing Russia with arms or military assistance, although it has maintained robust economic connections with Moscow. Beijing has not provided direct lethal military support for Russia and has sought to project itself as neutral in the Ukraine conflict. It has refused to condemn Moscow’s actions and declared in 2022 that it had a “no-limits” friendship with Russia. The country has denounced Western sanctions against Moscow, and accused NATO and the United States of provoking Putin’s invasion. China has also proposed a peace plan that was largely dismissed by Ukraine’s allies, who insisted that Moscow must withdraw its forces from the neighboring country as a condition for peace. https://lnkd.in/eA-g5M-q