Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Post

The New York Fed Staff Nowcast for 2024:Q2 is 1.8%, with the 50% probability interval at [0.8, 2.9] and the 68% interval at [0.3, 3.3]. https://nyfed.org/3LbPEur

The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index (GSCPI) rose to -0.03 in June, up from -0.5 in May. https://nyfed.org/3LmjOZ3

In remarks at the Reserve Bank of India, President John C. Williams discussed key principles that are at the heart of inflation targeting strategies and have proven foundational and invaluable in managing extreme uncertainty. Here are the key takeaways from that speech. https://nyfed.org/45VRZTy

In remarks at the Reserve Bank of India, President John C. Williams discussed key principles that are at the heart of inflation targeting strategies and have proven foundational and invaluable in managing extreme uncertainty. https://nyfed.org/4eUgYdZ

Thinking of pursuing a PhD in economics? Kasey has some tips! https://nyfed.org/4aHfMXZ

In today's post, the second in a two-part series, the authors discuss the consequences of an aggressive policy response to inflation using a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. They find that when facing demand shocks, stabilizing inflation and real activity go hand in hand, with very large benefits for households at the bottom of the wealth distribution. Conversely, when facing supply shocks, stabilizing inflation makes real outcomes more volatile, especially for poorer households. https://nyfed.org/45RAPGv

In remarks delivered at the ECB Forum on Central Banking, President John C. Williams discussed how best to understand r-star, the natural rate of interest, and the factors that affect it. https://nyfed.org/4cqHFoG

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In today's post, the first of a two-part series, the authors discuss the distributional effects of inflation and inflation stabilization through the lens of a Heterogeneous Agent New Keynesian model. They find that while inflation hurts everyone, it hurts the poor in particular. When the source of inflation is a supply shock, fighting inflation aggressively hurts the poor even more; however, the opposite is true for demand shocks. https://nyfed.org/3VQz5bO

Join us on July 8 and July 9 for our in-person New York Fed Summer Teacher Institute. Educators from schools in our Second District and from across the country can register to learn how to use economic case studies in the classroom, literacy strategies, and Federal Reserve education opportunities and tools for their students. As a New York State-approved Continuing Teacher and Leader Education sponsor, we can provide hours of Continuing Education/CTLE credit to attendees. Learn more and register: https://nyfed.org/3yjDiaQ