Francois Trahan, M²SD’s Post

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President at The Macro Institute

Well, this has been quite the morning. The employment report had a mix of positives and negatives. The surprises today are the ISM Services PMI missing expectations by 2 points and the extreme weakness in its Employment component. This chart shows an average of the Employment series from both the Manufacturing and Services ISM and how it leads the unemployment rate by about six months. I have not seen data points as weak as this very often in my career. Granted this is just one leading indicator of labor market trends, but one worth monitoring. We shall see. Happy Friday. FT

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Clément G.

Partner at Trajectoire Capital Group

7mo

Francois Trahan: Shouldn’t the Unemployment Rate change be on the left hand side (not right)? Just a minor detail. Thanks for the graphic.

Axel Perrin

Conseiller clientèle privée | Analyse & Middle Office

7mo

Some interesting facts

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Sultan K.

Trading Mentor & Investor (all content is my own opinion).

7mo

Happy Friday! May the UE rate be >5% by July 4th. Amen.

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Geoffrey Lenart

Senior Marketing Manager-Analyst

7mo

One has to dig a little deeper. Industries suffering particular weakness include real estate, rental-leasing, and construction. ISM is merely catching up to what we've known for over a year.

Denis Tremblay M.Sc.

Dirigeant-entrepreneur, conseiller sénior en management, innovation et neuromanagement, formateur au MBA de l'UdS, mentor au Réseau Mentorat et finaliste 2023 au Startup Community Awards au titre de mentor de l'année.

7mo

Direct impact of unprecedented demographic curves including the sharply reduced active population?

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