Well, this has been quite the morning. The employment report had a mix of positives and negatives. The surprises today are the ISM Services PMI missing expectations by 2 points and the extreme weakness in its Employment component. This chart shows an average of the Employment series from both the Manufacturing and Services ISM and how it leads the unemployment rate by about six months. I have not seen data points as weak as this very often in my career. Granted this is just one leading indicator of labor market trends, but one worth monitoring. We shall see. Happy Friday. FT
Happy Friday! May the UE rate be >5% by July 4th. Amen.
One has to dig a little deeper. Industries suffering particular weakness include real estate, rental-leasing, and construction. ISM is merely catching up to what we've known for over a year.
Direct impact of unprecedented demographic curves including the sharply reduced active population?
Partner at Trajectoire Capital Group
7moFrancois Trahan: Shouldn’t the Unemployment Rate change be on the left hand side (not right)? Just a minor detail. Thanks for the graphic.