Guy Berger, Ph.D.’s Post

There’s a lot of speculation about whether a recession is still on the horizon. Some economists say the country is already experiencing a “richcession,” rather than a broad contraction to come later. Layoffs have been largely limited to white-collar jobs while the unemployment rate, as a whole, remains near 50-year lows.

November Jobs Report: Clouds on the Horizon? The November jobs report is out, and while the headline numbers may seem positive at first glance, a closer look reveals a much more nuanced picture. The economy added 150,000 jobs in November, exceeding expectations but still representing a sharp decline from the strong growth seen earlier in the year. The decline of the private sector: Perhaps the most troubling aspect of the report is the weakness in private sector performance. Private payrolls added just 103,000 jobs in November, well below the expected 128,000. This marks the third consecutive month of slowing private sector job growth and raises concerns about the overall health of the economy. Industry Trends: The slowdown in private employment growth was widespread, with heavy losses in many sectors. The most notable job losses were in manufacturing (-15,000), leisure and hospitality (-7,000), retail, transportation and utilities (-3,000) These job losses were in health and social support (+). 77,200), government (-7,000). +51,000), partially offset by gains in construction (+23,000). Salary Raises: Wage inflation also showed signs of slowing in November. Annual wage growth rose 5.6%, a small gain from September 2021. This is 2% below the Federal Reserve's target inflation rate, which means wage growth and inflation are not rising This could further erode consumer purchasing power and economic activity goes away through. Continue Reading Here: https://lnkd.in/g-dxTmCn?

2024 is here and it's time to consider the forecast ☁. • According to recent reports, employment growth will remain positive, but at a slower pace than in previous years. • Unfortunately, we may also see a slight uptick in layoffs and unemployment. • Wage increases are no longer growing at the same pace as before. It's crucial for businesses to consider the labor market when strategizing recruitment efforts. Understanding talent availability, skill trends, and competition will help guide effective hiring efforts and ensure alignment with market demands. By being aware of these forecasts, businesses can stay ahead of the curve and make informed decisions. 📈

Question Chat: "How are you feeling about this article?" I see layoffs at a high level in both tech and staffing firms nationwide. I think the unemployment rate is about to spike. Thoughts in the Chat

February BLS insights reveal that the unemployment rate has risen to 3.9% from 3.7%. However, this rate has consistently stayed below 4% for 25 consecutive months, marking the longest continuous period since the late 1960s. Despite news of layoffs, small and mid-size companies are hiring the talent being laid off, resulting in a more level playing field. SMBs are now successfully recruiting top talent. If you're in need of top talent, let me know how I can help!

Layoffs in January 2024 sparked concern, with over 82,000 jobs cut in the U.S. However, the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed a silver lining – 353,000 new jobs were added during the same month, surpassing expectations. Despite some wage and inflation concerns, the strong labor market is keeping investor confidence intact. To read more market news, tap the link below to read our weekly Market Commentary! kwbwealth.com/wmc-2-6-24

States report a decline in new unemployment filings to 218,000 for the week ending Feb. 3, marking a 9,000 drop from the prior week. Amid historically low layoffs & unemployment under 4% for two years, recent data suggests a shift with layoffs increasing since January. While 1.87 million continue to seek benefits, the rise in ongoing claims hints at longer job search times, indicating a cautious hiring approach rather than widespread layoffs. #LaborMarket #UnemploymentTrends

In 2023, the labor market faced challenges, but 2024 is poised for stabilization. Anticipated trends include a slowdown in wage growth, a recalibration of hiring strategies, and expectations for low layoffs. Despite uncertainties, employers express optimism, and workers considering job transitions are advised to act promptly. Read more below to know what to expect in the new year. #WorkforceTrends #JobMarket #USEconomy

For the week ending May 25, jobless claims increased by 3,000 to 219,000, according to the Labor Department. The four-week average, which smooths out fluctuations, also rose slightly to 222,500, up by 2,500 from the previous week. These claims are often seen as an indicator of layoffs and the job market's direction. Despite a series of interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve to combat inflation, which began in March 2022, the labor market remains resilient. Economists anticipated a recession from these hikes, but strong consumer demand and a robust labor market have prevented it so far. https://lnkd.in/gDijvGs2

Why do I believe that we get a recession in Q1? Industries that heavily rely on labor, especially the service sector, are feeling the squeeze due to limited access to financing and mounting wage pressures. Those in a precarious position may find themselves grappling with the difficult decision of having to resort to layoffs as they have few viable alternatives. Add to this the uncertainty from the unresolved 2024 spending bill which will probably lead to considerable cuts if not a run on US agencies. Some chance we get a final leg-up in equities as rates will get a breather in the coming months. At least no-landing camp are in the front seat right now. But it is a gradual and then suddenly kinda thing