TL;DR: The Great Stay continued in May, with unusually low hiring, quits and layoffs. 1/ Unlike "the Great Resignation" of 2021-22, when labor turnover was unusually elevated, we're now in a "Great Stay" where hiring, quits and layoffs are lower than you would expect given the unemployment rate. 2/ Hiring is particularly "meh" - it's at levels that last cycle would have been consistent with an unemployment rate around 5.5% (instead of the current 4.0%). The good news is hiring declines have moderated significantly over the past year. 3/ Quits are marginally below where we would expect given the unemployment rate. The fact that quits have been stable for quite some time is also a good sign - it's revealed preference from workers that the job market doesn't appear to be deteriorating. 4/ Layoffs are very low by historical standards. 5/ Over the past year, we've seen something that surprised me: turnover fell but net employment growth did not. This probably reflects a surge in labor supply, coming primarily from immigrants. 6/ Job openings continue to significantly overstate how hot the labor market is.
Thanks for your insights!
Director of Economic Research
6dTurnover lower, but net employment growth has not been impacted negatively