Information Technology Industry Council (ITI)’s Post

💢 Tarrifs and Trade Wars: Treasury Undersecretary Jay Shambaugh made this speech today advancing the "overcapacity" narrative re China. It seems to foreshadow increased use of tariffs taking an even bigger role against China if Biden wins reelection. There doesn't seem to be much of a solution other than trade wars, at least in this address. It certainly gives many Western states a rhetorical out from having to stick to the traditional neo-liberal free trade paradigm that Washington has advanced since the end of the Cold War. I wonder how much the WTO would be the forum for the arbitration of these issues if its settlement dispute mechanism hadn't been hobbled so badly. Instead, we are going to litigate these issues through trade wars. Transcript - > https://lnkd.in/d2P3r43v

As part of his re-election campaign, former President #Trump continues to issue threats to impose across-the-board #tariffs on all US imports from #China and more recently, the same on our imports from the #EU. It's really hard to believe he studied at The Wharton School. Indeed, I've yet to find a fellow PhD trade economist who supports Trump's tactic. (Though there is one, but he's serving time in prison). For his part, Mr. Trump has yet to answer the question of how simultaneously igniting an all-out trade war among the world’s biggest economies and our nation's two largest markets--rather than crafting a well-targeted set of trade remedies calibrated to the problems at hand (i) not going to torpedo global growth and (ii) thus deeply harm U.S. firms, workers and consumers, the stakeholders he claims he want to help? I wrote about this in Forbes -- https://lnkd.in/eARAjped -- some time ago: "𝐌𝐫. 𝐓𝐫𝐮𝐦𝐩 𝐅𝐚𝐢𝐥𝐞𝐝 ‘𝐓𝐫𝐚𝐝𝐞 𝐓𝐚𝐫𝐢𝐟𝐟𝐬 𝟏𝟎𝟏’ 𝐀𝐭 𝐖𝐡𝐚𝐫𝐭𝐨𝐧"

A series of possible measures a Trump administration could take against Europe. A stark reminder that the European business model, based on a mercantilistic notion of large trade surpluses needs rethinking in a more fragmented world economy. Regardless of the outcome of the November election, Europe will have to generate much more of its own demand to cushion the impact of increasing trade friction. It is one key area in which France and Germany urgently need to overcome their differences to be able to find a common understanding and responses.

Trump’s “trade compass” has proven remarkably durable, with many changes he and his team made to US #policies remaining in place even after he left the #WhiteHouse. Read more in this first article of a new series by Head of Trade Policy Deborah Elms: https://buff.ly/46Pq9IU

Trump’s 2025 Trade Agenda: "In an interview, [AFPI's] Robert Lighthizer, who was the Trump admin's top trade negotiator & would most likely play a key role in a 2nd term, gave the most expansive, detailed explanation yet of Mr. Trump’s trade agenda." READ MORE ⬇️ https://lnkd.in/d52Tdgs6

Superb analysis of how and why trade policy has evolved over the years and a persuasive call for reframing US trade policy not around economics or geopolitics but as "a key element of solving global challenges that affect us all, like the green energy transition and the risks of AI and the digital economy." Peter was one of many provocative and insightful speakers at yesterday's superb @WCIT Trade Summit event in Seattle, where the need for innovation in trade policy to better benefit US companies and workers was a common theme. #geopolitics #internationaltrade

Check this excellent article by a colleague I deeply respect, Wendy Cutler , in The Diplomat on US-China trade and what the incoming President should be prepared for - it’s an excellent read.

More trade with more partners makes us less dependent. More trade with more democratic partners will strengthen our economies and our democracies. We need a free trade initiative with the USA now! My speech on the outcome of the last EU-US summit in the plenary:

In his new paper, Peter Harrell explores the lessons learned from the recent history of U.S. trade policy and argues that Washington’s trade agenda needs a reboot. Read the full piece here: https://bit.ly/3K9HdyU

How can Washington address the downsides of free trade—and manage the economic threat that China poses to the United States? Read the debate with former U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer and Gordon Hanson: