Russia has begun to refer to itself as part of the “Global Majority” – countries of the non-Western world, for which Putin wants to become a beacon and a moral authority. Following in the footsteps of the USSR, these countries are pragmatic enough to accept his help, while maintaining a multi-vector foreign policy. In the Global South, he could bask in glory. Yet in former Soviet states in Central Asia, Putin is still the lord of a new empire built on the wreckage of the USSR. His expansionism scares off rather than convincing them, allowing China to be an alternative to lean on. Although the West feels war fatigue and the resources to support Ukraine are dwindling, this may not help Putin seriously to advance his expansionist agenda. For Ukraine 2023 hasn’t been a good year, with the offensive missing the target. Yet it doesn’t mean Kyiv is losing the war. For Putin, It is the case. In Ukraine he has lost a sphere of influence. Besides, the “new territories” Russia occupies in Eastern Ukraine are a huge burden on the budget, which does not yet bring any economic benefits. Worse, Russia’s future is more uncertain than ever if he remains in power for another decade.
Jacqueline von Hettlingen’s Post
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" When russia first attacked Ukraine in February 2014, putin insisted moscow had no territorial ambitions beyond the seizure of Ukraine’s Crimean peninsula. ' We do not want to divide Ukraine, ' he assured the watching world. Within weeks, however, kremlin forces posing as locals had sparked a separatist war in eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region. " For the following eight years, putin steadily strengthened his grip on the so-called “separatist republics” of eastern Ukraine, while consistently denying any direct involvement. The failure of the international community to hold putin accountable for this shameless duplicity fuelled a sense of impunity in moscow that set the stage for the largest European invasion since World War II. " In his February 2022 address announcing the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, putin once again denied harboring any ambitions to annex additional Ukrainian lands. ' It is not our plan to occupy Ukrainian territory . . . We do not intend to impose anything on anyone by force.” Just six months later, putin demonstrated the true value of his word by solemnly announcing the annexation of four more Ukrainian provinces. . . . " putin’s new peace plan has now removed all doubt. Indeed, he took special care to clarify that he expects the Ukrainian military to withdraw completely from the four Ukrainian provinces in question, including unoccupied areas. Among other things, this would mean handing over the Ukrainian city of Zaporizhzhia . . . Ukraine would also have to voluntarily demilitarize, accept geopolitical neutrality . . . suppression of Ukrainian national identity and the imposition of a russian imperial ideology. In other words, putin is insisting Ukraine admit defeat and surrender. "
Putin just reminded the world why Russia must lose
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
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researcher at JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, founder "Fassold Seminare"
"For Putin, the invasion of Ukraine has always been part of a far broader historic mission to end the era of Western dominance. This was already apparent in the very first days of the war, when the Russian state media prematurely published then quickly retracted a triumphant editorial proclaiming victory in Ukraine and declaring: “Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over.” [...] If Putin is permitted to realize his dream of a turbulent new world order, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will provide inspiration for authoritarians around the globe and serve as a template for acts of aggression on every continent. This unraveling of the existing order is already evident everywhere from the Caucasus to South America. In recent months, it could be witnessed in Azerbaijan’s lightning seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, the unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel, and Venezuela’s saber-rattling against neighboring Guyana. If the current geopolitical trajectory continues, it is only a matter of time before today’s escalating instability penetrates the borders of the European Union and the NATO Alliance. With Western leaders demoralized and discredited by the fall of Ukraine, it is far from certain that either institution would still have the requisite strength to survive. Even if a major war between great powers could be avoided, Western governments would find themselves obliged to prioritize military spending and dramatically increase defense budgets. The days of squabbling over a few billion dollars to arm Ukraine would soon seem quaint in comparison. International trade would also suffer as the global peace dividend of the past three decades evaporated in a climate of mounting distrust and hybrid hostilities. None of this is inevitable. While the world is clearly changing with new centers of power emerging, the collective West still has more than enough economic, military, and diplomatic weight to shape the future for decades to come. The real question is whether the leaders of the democratic world are prepared to match the soft power they have long taken for granted with the kind of hard power necessary to thwart Russia’s destructive agenda. For now, too many people in the West seem far more afraid of defeating Putin than of actually stopping him. They remain in denial over the scale of the civilizational challenge posed by Russia, and continue to labor under the comforting delusion that some kind of compromise can return the world to the prewar status quo. In reality, a confrontation with Putin’s Russia can no longer be avoided; it can only be won or lost. The Ukrainians are more than capable of delivering this victory, but they require the tools to do so. If Western leaders choose not to adequately arm Ukraine, future generations will view their decision as one of the great geopolitical turning points of the twenty-first century."
While the West dithers, the future of the world is being decided in Ukraine
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
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Management Consultant Career Coach | Helping senior management consultants land six-figure jobs, higher pay, and fulfilment in 63 days with the 7-Step Exec Edge Program. 600+ Client Success Stories. MyExecJob.com 👈
Hannes Fassold Putin’s invasion of Ukraine isn’t just an isolated #conflict; it’s a blatant challenge to the Western-led world order. Your article rightly points out the domino effect this could have globally. However, it slightly misses the mark on Nagorno-Karabakh. The ‘lightning seizure’ by Azerbaijan was not so sudden—it followed a brutal blockade, overtly or covertly backed by both Turkey and Russia. It highlights the inconsistency in global politics, like Turkey’s role in NATO under an increasingly #authoritarian regime. And let’s not forget the risks posed by figures like #Trump, who seems to desire a medieval-like kingship over the United States. We’re at a pivotal moment where Western resolve will shape this century’s geopolitical landscape. Failure to support Ukraine adequately isn’t just a missed #opportunity; it’s a #strategic blunder that could signal the end of current global order.” #GlobalOrder #PutinAgenda #UkraineCrisis #NATOChallenges #AuthoritarianRise #WesternResolve #GeopoliticalTurnpoint #SupportUkraine #DefendDemocracy #WorldPolitics
researcher at JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, founder "Fassold Seminare"
"For Putin, the invasion of Ukraine has always been part of a far broader historic mission to end the era of Western dominance. This was already apparent in the very first days of the war, when the Russian state media prematurely published then quickly retracted a triumphant editorial proclaiming victory in Ukraine and declaring: “Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over.” [...] If Putin is permitted to realize his dream of a turbulent new world order, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will provide inspiration for authoritarians around the globe and serve as a template for acts of aggression on every continent. This unraveling of the existing order is already evident everywhere from the Caucasus to South America. In recent months, it could be witnessed in Azerbaijan’s lightning seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, the unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel, and Venezuela’s saber-rattling against neighboring Guyana. If the current geopolitical trajectory continues, it is only a matter of time before today’s escalating instability penetrates the borders of the European Union and the NATO Alliance. With Western leaders demoralized and discredited by the fall of Ukraine, it is far from certain that either institution would still have the requisite strength to survive. Even if a major war between great powers could be avoided, Western governments would find themselves obliged to prioritize military spending and dramatically increase defense budgets. The days of squabbling over a few billion dollars to arm Ukraine would soon seem quaint in comparison. International trade would also suffer as the global peace dividend of the past three decades evaporated in a climate of mounting distrust and hybrid hostilities. None of this is inevitable. While the world is clearly changing with new centers of power emerging, the collective West still has more than enough economic, military, and diplomatic weight to shape the future for decades to come. The real question is whether the leaders of the democratic world are prepared to match the soft power they have long taken for granted with the kind of hard power necessary to thwart Russia’s destructive agenda. For now, too many people in the West seem far more afraid of defeating Putin than of actually stopping him. They remain in denial over the scale of the civilizational challenge posed by Russia, and continue to labor under the comforting delusion that some kind of compromise can return the world to the prewar status quo. In reality, a confrontation with Putin’s Russia can no longer be avoided; it can only be won or lost. The Ukrainians are more than capable of delivering this victory, but they require the tools to do so. If Western leaders choose not to adequately arm Ukraine, future generations will view their decision as one of the great geopolitical turning points of the twenty-first century."
While the West dithers, the future of the world is being decided in Ukraine
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
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https://econ.st/4ayM744 By Invitation | A Chinese view of Russia Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia Feng Yujun says the war has strained Sino-Russian relations illustration: dan williams Economist Apr 11th 2024 The war between Russia and Ukraine has been catastrophic for both countries. With neither side enjoying an overwhelming advantage and their political positions completely at odds, the fighting is unlikely to end soon. One thing is clear, though: the conflict is a post-cold-war watershed that will have a profound, lasting global impact. Four main factors will influence the course of the war. The first is the level of resistance and national unity shown by Ukrainians, which has until now been extraordinary. The second is international support for Ukraine, which, though recently falling short of the country’s expectations, remains broad......Contd.
Russia is sure to lose in Ukraine, reckons a Chinese expert on Russia
economist.com
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Russian President Vladimir Putin declared that the legitimacy of Ukraine's current head of state has ended. Additionally, he has brought former Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych, who was ousted in 2014, to Belarus for a second time. In March 2022, Yanukovych appeared in Kyiv, allegedly as part of Moscow's plan to reinstall him after removing President Zelensky. He has now returned to Minsk, where Belarusian and Russian leaders, Lukashenko and Putin, are set to meet. Meanwhile, Reuters reported that President Putin is prepared to halt the war in Ukraine through a negotiated ceasefire that recognizes the current battlefield lines. Four Russian sources told Reuters that Putin is ready to continue the fight if Kyiv and the West do not respond. Clearly, these actions are part of Russia's efforts to undermine and delegitimize the upcoming peace conference on Ukraine, scheduled to be held in Switzerland on June 15. Following recent talks between Xi Jinping and Putin, China announced its support for a peace conference recognized by both Russia and Ukraine. However, Russia continues to disrupt international diplomatic efforts, aiming to prevent any potential reputational damage or break from international isolation. #Velsig #Geopolitics
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Management Consultant Career Coach | Helping senior management consultants land six-figure jobs, higher pay, and fulfilment in 63 days with the 7-Step Exec Edge Program. 600+ Client Success Stories. MyExecJob.com 👈
Hannes Fassold, Putin’s invasion of #ukraine isn’t just an isolated conflict; it’s a blatant challenge to the Western-led world order. The article rightly points out the domino effect this could have globally. However, it slightly misses the mark on Nagorno-Karabakh. The ‘lightning seizure’ by Azerbaijan was not so sudden—it followed a brutal blockade, backed by both Turkey and Russia. It highlights the inconsistency in global politics, like Turkey’s role in #nato under an increasingly authoritarian regime. And let’s not forget the risks posed by figures like #Trump, who seems to desire a medieval-like kingship over the United States. We’re at a pivotal moment where Western resolve will shape this century’s geopolitical landscape. Failure to support Ukraine adequately isn’t just a missed #opportunity; it’s a #strategic blunder that could signal the end of current global order. #GlobalOrder #PutinAgenda #UkraineCrisis #NATOChallenges #AuthoritarianRise #WesternResolve #GeopoliticalTurnpoint #SupportUkraine #DefendDemocracy #WorldPolitics
researcher at JOANNEUM RESEARCH Forschungsgesellschaft mbH, founder "Fassold Seminare"
"For Putin, the invasion of Ukraine has always been part of a far broader historic mission to end the era of Western dominance. This was already apparent in the very first days of the war, when the Russian state media prematurely published then quickly retracted a triumphant editorial proclaiming victory in Ukraine and declaring: “Western global domination can be considered completely and finally over.” [...] If Putin is permitted to realize his dream of a turbulent new world order, the Russian invasion of Ukraine will provide inspiration for authoritarians around the globe and serve as a template for acts of aggression on every continent. This unraveling of the existing order is already evident everywhere from the Caucasus to South America. In recent months, it could be witnessed in Azerbaijan’s lightning seizure of Nagorno-Karabakh, the unprecedented Hamas attack on Israel, and Venezuela’s saber-rattling against neighboring Guyana. If the current geopolitical trajectory continues, it is only a matter of time before today’s escalating instability penetrates the borders of the European Union and the NATO Alliance. With Western leaders demoralized and discredited by the fall of Ukraine, it is far from certain that either institution would still have the requisite strength to survive. Even if a major war between great powers could be avoided, Western governments would find themselves obliged to prioritize military spending and dramatically increase defense budgets. The days of squabbling over a few billion dollars to arm Ukraine would soon seem quaint in comparison. International trade would also suffer as the global peace dividend of the past three decades evaporated in a climate of mounting distrust and hybrid hostilities. None of this is inevitable. While the world is clearly changing with new centers of power emerging, the collective West still has more than enough economic, military, and diplomatic weight to shape the future for decades to come. The real question is whether the leaders of the democratic world are prepared to match the soft power they have long taken for granted with the kind of hard power necessary to thwart Russia’s destructive agenda. For now, too many people in the West seem far more afraid of defeating Putin than of actually stopping him. They remain in denial over the scale of the civilizational challenge posed by Russia, and continue to labor under the comforting delusion that some kind of compromise can return the world to the prewar status quo. In reality, a confrontation with Putin’s Russia can no longer be avoided; it can only be won or lost. The Ukrainians are more than capable of delivering this victory, but they require the tools to do so. If Western leaders choose not to adequately arm Ukraine, future generations will view their decision as one of the great geopolitical turning points of the twenty-first century."
While the West dithers, the future of the world is being decided in Ukraine
https://www.atlanticcouncil.org
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Leader, Strategist, Raconteur | Growing the Next Generation One Leader at a Time | Professor of the Practice at the University of Kansas School of Business
What if Russia wins? That's a significant "What if?" exercise, and one that's absolutely necessary. If #Ukraine emerges successful, a bruised and battered Russia will sulk back to Moscow and bide their time. If #Russia prevails, it will change the European political and military landscape, and not in a good way. "New conflicts could be on the horizon. To which old borders would Russian President Vladimir Putin like to restore the Kremlin’s empire? Finland, Poland, and the Baltic states were all once ruled from Moscow, and anyone with access to Kremlin-approved television can find Russian imperialist dreamers talking in these terms." It's safe to say - as it always has been - that Ukraine was intended to be a quick opening gambit. But, to what? There are so many "What ifs?" to this situation that it's difficult to say what Putin's #endgame might be. A complete reimagining of Eastern #Europe is not that difficult to imagine. So... what if?
What if Russia Wins?
https://foreignpolicy.com
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American macro/geopolitical analyst, investor, & strategic advisor. (My opinions evolve over time. Do your own research. I don’t post investment advice & only accept connection requests from people I already know.)
IMO… The idea that defeating Russia in Ukraine will dissuade China &/or Iran — or other Axis partners & proxies like North Korea, Venezuela, or the Middle Eastern “Axis of Resistance” — from escalating their own hostilities is incorrect, short-sighted, & reckless. On the contrary, I fear we are playing right into their trap. Draining USA’s capacity for self-defense & for supporting core Allies & partners won’t restore deterrence or cause the Axis to abort their global swarm strategy; it will erode deterrence further & tempt them with even greater American/Allied weakness. We can’t virtue signal our way to victory; we need to build our way out of this mess… and that will take multiple Presidential cycles.
"The stakes for Ukraine, for Europe, and for the world are enormous. Chinese President Xi Jinping, with his own designs on Taiwan, is watching with keen interest how this plays out. So, too, is Iran," writes Richard Haass.
Will Ukraine Survive? | by Richard Haass - Project Syndicate
project-syndicate.org
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My opinion about Ukraine 🇺🇦 President Mr Volodymyr Zelensky speech in World 🌏 Economic Forum Davos Switzerland 🇨🇭 Ukraine 🇺🇦 President Mr Volodymyr Zelensky Speech World 🌎 Economic Forum Davos Switzerland 🇨🇭 Putin is a predator who will not be happy with frozen food, Zelensky said in Davos. President of Ukraine Vladimir Zelensky spoke at the World Economic Forum in Davos. In a speech on January 16, he spoke out against a freeze in military action in Ukraine. According to Zelensky, sanctions against Russia were introduced months, or even years, late. According to him, the Russian missiles with which the Russian Federation attacks Ukrainian cities still use components that were imported from Western countries. The President of Ukraine believes that any weakening of pressure on Russia will prolong the war for years. At the same time, in his opinion, the chance to force the Russian army to retreat has now been lost, and the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not received the necessary weapons due to Western countries’ concerns about the escalation of the conflict. “This year will be decisive. Freezing the war will not end it. After 2014, there were attempts to freeze the war in Donbass, there were influential guarantors. (...) But Putin is a predator who will not be happy with frozen food,” Zelensky said, adding that victory Other Western countries will also make Ukraine more successful in the war #Repost @dwnews and @skynews #Ukraine #VolodymyrZelensky #worldeconomicforum #Davos #Asia #Artics #Africa #Australia #NorthAmerica #SouthAmerica #Oceania #Europe #NewZealand #Switzerland #dwnews #skynews #TwitterX #Tiktok #Telegram #İnstagram #Facebook #Meta #WhatsApp #YouTube UNITED24 Ukraine.ua Kyiv Post The Kyiv Independent #Africa #Artics #Australia #Asia #NorthAmerica #SouthAmerica #Oceania #Europe #NewZealand #RaufOcean #Ukraine🇺🇦
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Co-Founder MITS Capital 🇺🇦 | Board Director (qualified financial expert)🔋 | UN SDG #1🇰🇪🇺🇬🇸🇸🇪🇹🇹🇩🇧🇫
This article cites fears that Russia will "win the war." That is absurd. Russia will never win because Ukraine will never give up. This war has been going on for over 30 years, since the end of the Soviet Empire (and actually longer). There are periods when it gets "hotter" and periods where it smolders, but the war will not end until Ukrainians can determine their own future. Letting Russia "win" this round of the conflict is a terrible strategic policy and will cost the West far more than the expense of repelling Russia from Ukraine. Has anyone thought through the financial costs to the West of a Russian occupation of Ukraine? The refugee costs for Europe will be enormous, but beyond that, it will cement the end of the liberal world order. It will mean "might means right." It will encourage other autocracies like China and Iran in their expansionary policies. It will almost certainly lead to a long-term guerilla war in Ukraine, but conflicts are likely to endanger Taiwan, The Philippines, Vietnam, Georgia and the Baltics. And ultimately India. Africans are closely watching what the West will do--they want to ally with winners, not losers. If the West is the loser in Ukraine, China and Russia will be empowered in the only continent with a growing population. Appeasement of autocracies has never worked to promote peace. Autocracies always need to expand to justify their constant war footing and concentration of power. Letting Russia "win" in Ukraine is far more than it seems. The West needs to get its act together and save what makes the West the West. #Ukraine Oleksandr (Sasha) Kravchenko Angela Sax Alexander McWhorter Andy Hunder Olena Malynska Judith Baker Robert McConnell Halyna Yanchenko John Moran Tetyana Prokopchuk Steven Moore Roman Sheremeta Marianna Kozintseva Denys Gurak Anton Melnyk Marijn Markus Dan Rice 🇺🇸 🇺🇦 Nicolai Kiskalt Yurii Shafarenko Oleksandr Zavalov Vira Savchenko Bohdan Тyrus, PhD Andrea Januta Siobhán O'Grady Ukraine.ua Vlad Skots Mick Safron Roman Rodriguez Robin Horsfall Dr. Wladimir Klitschko Atlantic Council Council on Foreign Relations Center for a New American Security (CNAS) RAND The Brookings Institution Hudson Institute American Enterprise Institute Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) United States Department of Defense U.S. Department of State #foreignpolicy #nationalsecurity https://lnkd.in/gRMh3kf8
Essay | Will the U.S. Abandon Ukraine?
wsj.com