Joe Weisenthal’s Post

#ICYMI: Our founder and CEO, Bob Rubin, CLU®, ChFC®, published a compelling op-ed in The Daily Caller! “We are on the cusp of seeing the U.S. dollar cast to the sidelines and President Joe Biden and Democrats couldn’t care less! If the U.S. dollar no longer dominates on the world stage, we, the American people, are the ones who will feel this pain.” Check out the whole article here: https://lnkd.in/epMvcCcv

Trump’s preference for a weaker dollar is at odds with the recent market bias to treat building odds of a Trump presidency as positive for the greenback. https://loom.ly/GqvCV44 #dollar #usd #trump #presidency #economy #fxmarkets #foreignexchange #financialservices #fxtraders

US currency policy has somehow broken through the crazy news cycle coming out of Washington. It started with Donald Trump answering a broad question from my colleagues at Businessweek about what kind of economy Americans need by talking about the "big currency problem." He was referring to how the strength of the dollar has hurt US manufacturing, since it makes America goods too expensive to buy domestically, and too expensive to export. Then it was Trump's choice of JD Vance for VP that reminded folks that the Ohio senator has previously opined on how owning the world's reserve currency has its downsides. So analysts, economists and others are now wondering: What would a Trump-Vance administration mean for the dollar? Some say it would herald a new era for dollar policy, but that actually started in 2017. For the deep dive, check out my book PAPER SOLDIERS: How the Weaponization of the Dollar Changed the World Order, and you'll find out how past administrations have tried, succeeded and sometimes failed to control the power of the almighty buck. Available wherever you can buy books! And for the quick hit, checkout what Carter Johnson and I wrote for Bloomberg. There are some fantastic charts, and we unfurl a few key ways Trump could shift policy. And here's a teaser: “The main institution that is standing between Trump and the devaluation is the S&P,” per Freya Beamish at TS Lombard. https://lnkd.in/ecMQUqnn #USCurrency #DollarPolicy #EconomicAnalysis #WashingtonNews #BookReview #BloombergInsights

The Third World War has been underway since 2020 – if one looks at the behavior of US Treasury securities. This story is the subject of a study by economists Hall and Sargent In brief by @PNASNews , during such wars, the US government forces bondholders to bear part of the burden when government spending increases. The chart shows the real aggregate yield of Treasury bonds (bond rate minus inflation), with years marked on the horizontal axis. The chart indicates that the real yield of US government bonds during COVID was even worse than during World War I. It is also noteworthy that not only historians but also economists now recognize the Napoleonic Wars as the Zeroth World War. By the way, the ZWW was actively fought on US territory, and during it, the British burned Washington. What investors need to prepare for: this work shows that "bonds gave negative real returns for 12 years after the start of the World Wars." Four years have passed so far. #global #economy #Treasury #Bonds #Investment

https://bit.ly/45M2Z5N 💲 The US Dollar's future depends significantly on the outcome of the presidential election and subsequent policy decisions. Dive into the complex scenarios for both parties, the possible impacts on the US Dollar, and what investors should watch for as November approaches.  ➡ Read more to understand how this election could shape financial markets and the economy.

Nothing stops this train as we move to an era of fiscal dominance and a neutered monetary policy. https://lnkd.in/ejrNUc2B

Happy National Dollar Day! 💵 Today marks the anniversary of the establishment of the U.S. monetary system in 1786. It's a great reminder of the value and history of the dollar. How do you make your dollars work for you? Whether it's smart investing, saving, or mindful spending, share your best financial tips! #NationalDollarDay #FinanceTips #MoneyManagement #InvestSmart

Happy National Dollar Day! 💵 Today marks the anniversary of the establishment of the U.S. monetary system in 1786. It's a great reminder of the value and history of the dollar. How do you make your dollars work for you? Whether it's smart investing, saving, or mindful spending, share your best financial tips! #NationalDollarDay #FinanceTips #MoneyManagement #InvestSmart

📈 #WarrenBuffett now owns more T-bills than the Federal Reserve 📈 In a notable reversal, Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway has outperformed the Federal Reserve in the US. Treasury bills (T-bills) in his possession. The move underscores Buffett's strategic focus on safe, liquid assets and demonstrates his confidence in the short-term continuity of government securities. 🔍 Special Review: - Strategic asset allocation: Buffett’s increasing holdings in T-bills reflect a cautious approach to economic manipulation. - Market implications: This development highlights the importance of Treasury securities in today’s economic environment and could affect market sentiment. Stay tuned to The Empire magazine for more analysis on how these fundamental changes will affect global financial markets and monetary policy. #Finance #Investing #WarrenBuffett #TreasuryBills #FederalReserve #TheEmpireMagazine

Former President Donald John Trump and his advisers, particularly his former trade chief, Robert Emmet Lighthizer, have been discussing ways to devalue the US dollar if Trump were to be elected for a second term.  Trump’s team believes that the current strong dollar is a barrier to reviving US manufacturing.  A weaker dollar has several significant implications for the U.S. and the global economy.  US goods and services become cheaper for foreign buyers, potentially increasing demand for American products and helping to reduce the trade deficit.  Increased exports can stimulate economic growth and support job creation in export-oriented industries.  US companies with significant overseas operations may see higher profits when foreign earnings are converted back to dollars. Imported goods become more expensive, which can lead to higher consumer prices and contribute to inflation.  Everyday items, such as electronics, clothing, and other imported goods, become more expensive for American consumers.  Countries and companies with dollar-denominated debt may face higher costs in servicing their debt, which can lead to financial stress.  A weaker dollar leads to volatility in global financial markets, as investors adjust their portfolios in response to currency fluctuations.  If the dollar weakens significantly, it undermines confidence in the dollar as the world’s primary reserve currency, potentially leading to a shift towards other currencies like the euro or yuan. Other countries might respond with their own currency devaluations, leading to a potential currency war.  A weaker dollar deters foreign investment in US assets, as returns in dollar terms would be lower.  Treasury Secretary Janet Louise Yellen opposes the idea of intentionally weakening the US dollar.  Yellen believes that the value of the US dollar should be determined by market forces rather than government intervention.  She emphasised that the US does not seek a weaker dollar to gain a competitive advantage.  Yellen pointed out that the strength of the dollar is a reflection of the US economy’s performance and tight monetary policy.  She believes that interventions should only occur in very rare and exceptional circumstances. There is no clear consensus among economists regarding the deliberate weakening of the US dollar.  Opinions vary widely based on different economic theories and perspectives.  Some economists argue that a weaker dollar can help boost US exports by making them cheaper and more competitive internationally.  This could reduce the trade deficit and support domestic manufacturing.  Proponents believe that increased exports can stimulate economic growth and create jobs in export-oriented industries.  I am in the camp that this is a terrible idea for all the reasons mentioned above. Terence Nunis Terence K. J. Nunis, Consultant Chief Executive Officer, Equinox GEMTZ