John Dutemple, CFA, FSA’s Post

The WashU Olin Business School Wealth and Asset Management Conference is always a highlight on my calendar: I hope to see a lot of my friends and colleagues there!

I'll be attending. This is always one of the 'can't miss' events on my CFA calendar. I'm always impressed by the level of talent and work these students put into the Research Challenge. Plus, it's a great opportunity for current finance professionals to meet the best of the next generation and vice versa.

RIP #51 About 10 years ago, I had one of those unexpected, out-of-the-blue opportunities. Butkus was doing a signing that was going to start in about five minutes when we walked by. Five minutes later, I was the only one there, so I got to chat with him for about ten minutes. I got to see two sides of the guy. First, he was the nicest, most down-to-earth guy you'd ever want to meet. The kind of guy you want as neighbor. On the flip side, the first words out of his mouth were, "Man, you're tall!" If you've ever seen clips of the guy, you know what a competitor he was on the gridiron. And here he was at 70, still sizing up the other guy (gulp, me!) trying to figure out how to dislocate something. Nice guy/fierce competitor. You can be both.

I stumbled across this article (p. 8) in a footnote in the 2003 edition of The Intelligent Investor. It's the transcript of a 'tele-lecture' (Q&A) given to Professor Pat Ellebracht's Principles of Investment class at my alma mater, Northeast Missouri State University (now Truman) March 2, 1972 by the master himself, Benjamin Graham. I'm throwing this out there: 1. As a bit of history that my fellow finance professionals might enjoy taking a look at, and 2. In the hopes that if there are connections on LinkedIn or in the real world to any of the attendees, they get in touch. Thank you. https://lnkd.in/gkhzqnd6

July's hike in the Fed Funds rate coupled with a sharp decline in the June Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) measures places the effective Fed Funds rate squarely in the middle of the Sufficiently Restrictive Zone, signaling rates may have been raised enough to control inflation. The lagged inflation measures are still above the Fed's target of 2% and the economy remains at full employment and full GDP potential, but this may signal an end to rate hikes this cycle. Markets are betting on an 80% chance that the Fed will not raise rates in September. There will be two more CPI releases and a release of July PCE numbers before the September 20 meeting.

This can't be right?! I don't see Watford on here! (Go you 'Orns!) #WatfordFC

https://lnkd.in/gNSnM5KG A hearty congratulations to Dr. Bullard on his new position. St. Louis will miss you, Jim.

Headline Personal Consumption Expenditure (PCE) inflation fell in May but Core PCE barely budged. The Fed paused (or, more likely, skipped) raising the Fed Funds rate in June. This leaves us almost exactly where we were a month ago with Fed Funds just grazing the bottom of the Sufficiently Restrictive Zone. Comments by Fed Chairman Powell point to at least two more rate hikes this year. Financial markets have all but abandoned the thought of a drop in rates this year, putting the odds at less than 1%. Markets are laying 13:2 odds in favor of a quarter-point hike in July. For how this might impact investments and other Frequently Asked Questions, see: https://lnkd.in/gQbph85B

Bullard weighs in again on the "Sufficiently Restrictive Zone": https://lnkd.in/gW-m9zKA