John T Chang’s Post

Today, the FOMC voted unanimously to hold the fed funds rate at a target range of 5.25–5.50%. This represents the seventh straight FOMC meeting with no change in the policy rate, with the last rate hike coming out of the July 2023 meeting. Powell highlighted that the economy faces a balance of risks — cutting rates too soon may reignite inflation, while holding rates for too long could send the economy into a recession. 📈 Read more: (https://lnkd.in/ePv78bqH) #FOMC #FederalReserve #InterestRates #MonetaryPolicy #Inflation

📢 FOMC Policy Meeting Minutes Reveals Inflation Concerns & Future Rate Hike Possibilities! 📊 Key Takeaways: 📊 Concerns about the pace of inflation discussed. 🔒 Most members worry that inflation battle isn't over yet. 🏦 Commercial real estate concerns highlighted. Economic Snapshot: 🔍 Inflation remains high but some signs of abatement. 🏭 GDP gains above 2% in H1 2023, projected 5.8% rise in Q3. 🤔 Two-sided risks: loosening policy vs. risking higher inflation. 📈 Inflation has made progress since 9% peak in June 2022. Fed Officials' Views: ⛔ Unlikely rate cuts this year, potential for future increases. 📊 Market pricing leans towards no more hikes in 2023. #FedMeeting #Inflation #FOMC #economy

The surprise downside in U.S. inflation breathes life into an interest rate cut at the September FOMC. The unexpected slowdown in U.S. inflation has reignited the possibility of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve at the September FOMC meeting. While the hotter-than-expected Producer Price Index (PPI) reading presented a caveat, Chair Powell's statement to the Senate Banking Committee that "elevated inflation is not the only risk we face" suggests a more nuanced approach. Additionally, the narrative around second-quarter earnings supports this mixed economic picture. Check our weekly global news: https://lnkd.in/dCmrrnZs #zillacapital #globalnews #globalespresso #US #inflation

With the FOMC minutes today, the US 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate dropping to around 2% signals the market’s anticipation of a potential rate cut. Lower inflation expectations might prompt a shift in monetary policy. #FOMC #InterestRates #Inflation #MonetaryPolicy #Finance

𝗙𝗲𝗱 𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗶𝗿 𝗣𝗼𝘄𝗲𝗹𝗹 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗣𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗲𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗶𝗻 𝗜𝗻𝗳𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗕𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗹𝗲 Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell expressed caution on declaring the inflation fight over, emphasizing that interest rates won't be cut until there's strong evidence of inflation moving towards the 2% target. While confident in the U.S. economy's path to stable prices and low unemployment, Powell noted the need for more favorable data. The Fed's preferred inflation measure stands at 2.6%, with the benchmark interest rate between 5.25% and 5.5%. #finance #news #JeromePowell #FederalReserve #Inflation Source:- https://lnkd.in/d7pwN3pq

Investors and other market participants were gauging about six interest rate cuts in the beginning of the year, creating a downward pressure on treasury yields. But, with the latest data on inflation delivering unfavourable numbers, any chance of rate cuts this year seems bleak.   Fed Chairman Jerome Powell delivered a particularly hawkish speech in the latest meet, causing 10-year treasury yields to shoot up to 4.67%, close to the previous peaks of 5% set in October last year.   The question is; does the bond market seem to be overcompensating for the perceived risks regarding future rate cuts? Of course, we need to wait for another round of inflation figures, which are at the heart of these changes.   It is apparent that sticky inflation figures have certainly been dampening the mood for a more lenient monetary policy, and that investors will demand a higher yield premium until a more enduring phase of disinflation comes into effect.   It is still doubtful if whether yields’ markets will respond appropriately if the inflation tames down to the Fed’s comfort level. Even if they do, it won’t be surprising to see the 10-year yield touch the 5% peak before coming down again. #yields #economy #economicgrowth #economicoutlook #fed #bondyield #inflation #recession #disinflation

Jerome Powell (Chairperson U.S. Fed)made the following statement regarding interest rates: The last six months of inflation data were good, and we want slightly more confidence to cut rates. We don't want to get too late so that the economy slows down, but we also don't want to get too early as inflation is still above the long-term goal of 2%. So we are closely looking at data, and rates will probably be cut this year, but not immediately. Next few months inflation data is key for securities market. #debtmarket #sharemarket #commoditymarkets #capitalmarkets #currencymarket #jeromepowell #interestrates #Fed #federalreserve #USnews #FMOC

The latest inflation data provides little urgency for immediate interest rate cuts by the U.S. Federal Reserve, according to financial markets and analysts. While inflation rose in line with expectations, fears of price pressure resurgence eased. Expectations for rate cuts by mid-September have slightly increased, but policymakers are likely to maintain current rates at their upcoming meeting. The Fed remains cautious, awaiting more confidence in inflation reaching its 2% target before considering reductions. Analysts anticipate a possible delay in rate declines until 2025 due to economic resilience, posing a downside risk for growth. Rate futures indicate reduced likelihood of rate cuts this year compared to earlier expectations. #Inflation #interest #interestrate #US #Fed #analysts #futures #policymakers #policies #ronnechemia #globalbankgroup #financial #financialmarket #finance #investment #investing #prices #priceindex #index #economicgrowth #bank #centralbank #cost 

As expected, the FOMC left interest rates unchanged. Chairman Powell mentioned that the inflation report published yesterday morning (0.0% MoM) was “welcomed”, but that it was not enough to raise the level of comfort to lower rates, as inflation is still too far apart from the 2% target. The bottom line is the FOMC members now see 1 rate cut for 2024, and perhaps 4 more cuts for 2025, although Powell reiterated they don’t put much emphasis on forecasts. That leaves us not far from where we were before the meeting: stock indices betting on AI to save the world, while the bond market had 2 heart attacks in one day: the 10 year Treasury rose 27 bps in Yield on the inflation report in the morning, only to give them back after Powell press conference. Want to know more? join Fund@mental here https://lnkd.in/ewBZ9GK4 #iamfundamental #soyfundamental #wealthmanagement #familyoffice #financialadvisor #financialplanning #policymistake #ratecut #stagflation

Investors are now completely certain that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates by September, with a 93.3% chance that the Fed's target range for the federal funds rate will decrease by 0.25%. This confidence is driven by two factors: last week's CPI update for June, which revealed a 0.1% decrease from the previous month and lowered the annual inflation rate to 3%, and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's recent comments indicating that the Fed wouldn't wait for inflation to reach its 2% target before cutting rates, due to the lagging effects of previous tightening measures. #FED #INVESTOR #US #INFLATION #MACROECONOMICS