“An emerging tool in gray zone warfare in space are dual-use satellites developed for in-orbit services that are capable of close-proximity maneuvers.
These vehicles — now being deployed by Russia and China — have drawn the attention of the Pentagon because of their sophistication. So-called inspector satellites are used for benign purposes like assessing satellites for damage or debris monitoring. But the same rendezvous capabilities can also enable intelligence gathering and counter-space actions.
Some equipped with robotic arms, these vehicles exploit the inherent dual-use potential of most space technologies. In early 2022, it was revealed that China’s Shijian-21 docked with a defunct Chinese satellite in the geostationary belt and towed it to a graveyard orbit. That demonstration raised the specter of counter-space applications conducted under the guise of debris cleanup initiatives.
“It’s an example of the co-orbital threats that we face now,” said Saltzman. “We saw them use a grappling arm to take one of their own satellites and pull it out of its operational orbit into an unusable orbit. And if you can do it with one satellite, you can do it with another,” he said.
“Those are the kinds of threats that we’re trying to create resiliency against,” he said. “And it’s a daunting proposition.”
Slingshot Aerospace, in early October, released its analysis of recent maneuvers by Russia’s Luch Olymp K-2 geostationary spy satellite, suspected of conducting signals intelligence-gathering missions in the vicinity of U.S. commercial communications satellites.
“Thinking about warfare in space through an irregular warfare lens or gray zone lens is exactly what we should be doing,” Schaffer said. “Because the very last thing our national leadership wants to do is go to war. We want to deter war.”
The U.S. plans to field more advanced spacecraft with maneuvering and proximity-operations capabilities to counter Chinese threats, and virtually all that innovation is coming from commercial companies.
However, she noted, “If we’re talking primarily about actions short of armed conflict, we don’t have the doctrine, we don’t have the capabilities, we don’t have the plans, we don’t have the theory to really compete in that realm.”
Expert space watchers note that China has made notable advances in rendezvous and proximity operations. Not only did China demonstrate such capabilities in geostationary orbit, but it also has put satellites in lower orbits to perform maneuvers around other Chinese spacecraft.
“It used to be that proximity operations with satellites flying close together were rare, and it took immense budgets and many years to build a system,” Ceperley said Oct. 11 at The Economist’s Space Economy Summit in Los Angeles.
“We started to see a number of proximity operations by China and Russia over the last few years,” he said. “They are getting quite sophisticated … Satellites are getting a lot more nimble.”
Proximity operations used to be rare, but we've seen an increase over the last few years. “They are getting quite sophisticated," said LeoLabs CEO Daniel Ceperley, "Satellites are getting a lot more nimble.” #SpaceSecurity
![Space Competition Enters the Gray Zone]()
Space Competition Enters the Gray Zone
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