Larry Restieri’s Post

As preoccupations around interest rates and inflation remain, and geopolitical tensions look set to continue, what should investors take note of? In our first Market Outlook of 2024 we discuss why we believe we are at the start of a new economic cycle, and how investors can position themselves for the year ahead. To explore the key themes in more depth, read our new Market Outlook digital publication: https://lnkd.in/dDUyTNH2 #JuliusBaer #marketoutlook #wealthmanagement

In this month's update, Columbus Macro CEO Craig Columbus reviews the conditions that gave rise to market volatility in April, highlighting the Fed’s rate pivot last fall and the risk-on move in stocks driven by better-than-anticipated economic activity. Mr. Columbus then discusses the interconnectivity of global economic systems and concludes the video with a few notes on seasonality and technicals. See below to view the Monthly Update video. ⬇

Recent economic data releases have sparked turmoil in financial markets around the globe. Our interpretation of this recent data suggests that fears of an imminent US recession and related expectations of aggressive policy rate cuts are overdone. To be clear, our economists are not ruling out a US recession – that will remain a risk with financial conditions still restrictive – but the evidence to support it occurring imminently looks unconvincing at this stage. As markets settle, we offer you this excerpt from our July 11th webcast, in which our global economist, Ken Wattret, reflects on key macroeconomic themes. We hope you find this commentary valuable in navigating the period ahead. Listen now: https://okt.to/BTpMzQ

We explore the key events impacting the global economy and the outlook for growth, interest rates and inflation. Read more: https://vgi.vg/46Z5wdj Capital at Risk.

What's on our economic radar this week? This #MacroMemo focuses on new evidence of a slowing U.S. economy. It also explores where the Fed will go with rate cuts, quantifies geopolitical risks, examines technology developments and more. https://bit.ly/4a86BQ9

ECONOMIC NEWS 📈 This week with Sebastien Mc Mahon: We look back on an eventful 2023 marked by turbulent macroeconomic developments, and look ahead to 2024, which promises to be full of surprises. 👉 https://ow.ly/zLja50QlqyZ

Sharing with all my connects the Mid-Year Outlooks by Morgan Stanley strategists: As inflation moderates toward central bank targets, investors can feel optimistic that interest rates will start to come down and that a stable global recovery will take hold in 2024. Investors may look to Japanese and European equities as well as mortgage-backed securities for opportunity. #Economy #Markets #Investors #Global #Finance #Outlooks #Midyear

What makes investing in the private markets today different than previous macroeconomic cycles? In his latest article, Vice Chairman Drew Schardt dives into what's trending and what to expect moving forward. https://lnkd.in/eYgfpEnu

With the Fed announcements this week have you adjusted your expectations for the macroeconomic environment in 2024? Should you? The question we often try to answer is "What is the most likely scenario given the most current information?" With the level of uncertainty we are living with, I would suggest that a better question might, be "How would we respond to these three (or more) very possible scenarios?" Trying to develop a strategy for what will happen is increasingly difficult and we would be better off focusing energy on developing a strategy for how we would adapt to various possible scenarios (not just the most likely one). John Kotter and I wrote about a few ways to deal with rising uncertainty for Agenda Week - It does require a subscription, but please reach out if you want to discuss how a more adaptable strategy can help navigate uncertainty. https://lnkd.in/gsnjubb

October was a challenging month economically and geopolitically. In this edition of Insights, we examine recent market performance, assess the global macroeconomic environment, review the start of earnings season, and revisit the role fixed income plays in portfolios.  https://lnkd.in/esSRj7qx #marketcommentary