The overwhelming energy narrative around the new UK government is that Labor will take climate seriously and accelerate the energy transition. That acceleration might well happen and I don’t want to comment on some of the conservative rhetoric but it is important to realize that the legacy the 13 Tory years is an uneven, but overall quite rapid progress that the new government can build on. In the electricity sector the UK hands down overperformed the continent: on per capita basis the decline of coal generation was double the EU and the UK was ahead in renewable deployment due to its wind performance which offshore was impressive. In solar deployment it lags the EU but given its climate and winter peak demand that is arguably a rational prioritization. National Grid emerged as a hotspot of power system innovation: last year a third of UK power generation was wind and solar, in a system with limited hydro and only DC interconnections. In 2010 one probably would have failed an electrical engineering exam for suggesting that this is possible at all. Ironically, during the Brexit years the integration of the UK power system with the continent accelerated, in 2022 a sharp reversal of the interconnector flow and exports back to France were instrumental of managing the shortfall of French nuclear production. In transport electrification the UK is in a similar place to the Western European EU members. Despite the adventures of high speed train, it overperformed the EU on modal switch: road mobility increased by similar share, but the UK also managed to expand rail passenger traffic. Those who work in London can attest the robust capacity utilization of commuter trains. For buildings “room for improvement’ is a very British understatement. With the 2010 – 2023 speed the EU would take 70 years to replace its oil and gas boilers with heat pumps, not good enough in the light of the 2050 targets. Still, it is a stellar performance compared to the UK, where without acceleration it would be 270 years. The UK has had a much faster decline of fossil fuel use in industry, 37% compared to 11% in the EU. Make no mistake, this is not electrification and green H2 but offshoring and factory closures: there was hardly any increase in low carbon energy use in industry. Everything I read about Labor suggests that they might not be comfortable with a “decarbonization through deindustrialization’ approach so watch this place. Overall one might conclude that the UK has successfully done the low hanging fruit of the transition, and what remains is hard due to: - Infrastructure, like the other half of electricity. - Technology such as the surviving two thirds of industry. - Social behavior like the step change needed in buildings. How the Starmer government will use its historically strong mandate to tackle these difficult areas will be an exciting policy dilemma, stay tuned.
Nice post, Laszlo Varro. Hopefully, PM Starmer gives consumers supply-side carrots, demand-side carrots, and oil producers and polluters sticks or prison sentences. Because, net zero buildings are easy, and so are EV and infrastructure incentives. Building out electric infrastructure is the hard part. AYK, global direct subsidies for fossil fuels consumption cost taxpayers $1.26Tn in exchange for fossil fuel companies avoiding taxes in 2022. Plus, consumers paid an additional $6.5Tn directly to fossil fuel companies which then created $7Tn of ecological damage and inflated costs. Thats a crazy train. So, consider total $1.74Tn clean energy investment in 2023, could become $4.44Tn+ in 2025, if every barrel was sold at Russian sanctioned oil price cap of $60/bbl. No fossil fuels subsidies required. All U.K would need is a UN commitment, new domestic regulations w/ price controls listing various prison sentence minimums for violations, and Mi5 out protecting U.K. from losing 20% of its GDP in 2050 to climate change.
... an "Exciting Policy Dilemma" indeed. Wind is inherently unstable, and cannot power larger cities and mass transit well. Solar in the UK is not viable outside of summer. Building 24 GWs of new nuclear by 2050 will be a major challenge from where the Brits sit now. They need to shift over sooner to manufacturing SMRs (RR and other brands) like Spitfire aircraft. Indeed. EDF has proven (in Finland and in France also) that their EPR Elephant Reactor is too expensive, and France cannot finance it.
Laszlo Varro As a follow up to my comment about the urgent need to expand and strengthen the electricity transmission systems in Scotland and England, here is the very latest on this very subject from Germany. Germany has already used in excess of 600 billion euro in subsidies on wind and solar power. Now the country has to embark on a costly expansion and strengthening of the electricity transmission and distribution system to be able to utilise better the power generated by wind and solar power plants: 328 billion euro by 2045 is the required investment according to Philipp Nimmermann, State Secretary in the German Federal Ministry of Economics. See post at: https://www.linkedin.com/posts/activity-7216042739035992064-MPld?utm_source=share&utm_medium=member_desktop . Niklas R.
Samantha C.
1w
Imo it’s about reducing Demand on the grid aswell as more electrification and thinking about when to use the Energy ; tariffs; making it cheaper to put the washing on late at night and covering outside washing lines in ☔️(reducing carbon intensity (the need to use the tumble dryer)) ; Active Travel , safe reliable comfortable fast public transport and Community led Local Energy Network Areas
Remove barriers to decentralized/disrtict/distributed generation and control by centralized generation producers. Increase IPPs, community solar, agrivoltaics.
Qasam Sultan
1w
Great overview Laszlo Varro. One may also say that the 2010-23 was an era of ultra low interest rates (low cost of capital). Not the case now and will make tackling those difficult areas you highlight just a touch harder for the new gov…
Gordon R.
1w
Fuel use dropped because of lack of economic activity. Not something to be proud of.
Saudi Arabia of Wind (C)
Experienced Gas Strategist and Negotiator
1wLaszlo Varro As someone who has lived in England now for 46 years and worked with energy, incl 20 years ago when the 2007 Energy White Paper was issued that lead to the The Energy Act 2008 under Gordon Brown and with the late Alisar Darling and Ed Miliband as the main policy influencers, what you are saying about the UK electricity system is my book "an understatement". UK energy policy is, to be polite not sound. The Conservatives understood this and made some positive changes under Sunak. What the Labour Party (UK) now urgently needs to do is to build out and strengthen the electricity transmission system. This to allow solar and wind generation that already have been built to be connected to the grid. It takes 6 to 8 years to obtain planning consent for a new electricity transmission line over farmland in England. In built up areas it take 10+ years to obtain consent. The electricity transmission systems between Scotland and England urgently needs to be strengthened. The 2 GW connection between Aberdeenshire and the Humber should be accelerated since Scotland frequently has excess power. England on a regular basis imports 5.4 GW to 6.5 GW of baseload power from France, Belgium and Norway. This is not safe. Ofgem