Los Angeles Times’ Post

https://lnkd.in/e-VCD3xv Poll: #Democrats Would Rather See #MichelleObama in the White House than Biden by Brett Rowland If Democrats had a magic wand, they’d put Michelle Obama in the White House. The former first lady has more political star power than incumbent #President Joe Biden and other famous and not-so-famous Democrats ahead of the November election, according to The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll, conducted Jan. 2-4. The poll, conducted with Noble Predictive Insights, found that if Democrats and Democrat-leaning likely voters could wave a magic wand, 24% would pick Michelle Obama. The former first lady was followed by Biden (20%), U.S. Sen. Bernie Sanders (12%), someone else (9%), U.S. Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg (9%), former U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton (8%), Vice President Kamala Harris (7%), and U.S. Sen. Elizabeth Warren (5%)."...

The White House is in crisis. Their presidential campaign is in chaos as a growing number of congressional leaders call for President Biden to step aside. Celebs too. A daily drumbeat persists that Democratic donors are freezing support. The New York Times reported – from across key swing states – that grassroots voters are uninspired. And the world is on fire. President Biden’s response? Divert attention by flooding his social media accounts with lies about Project 2025. Biden’s campaign has even taken the utterly inexcusable step of “doxxing” the Project 2025 team, posting names and pictures – an invitation to crazed leftists to attack them personally. It’s deliberate. It’s dangerous. It’s disgusting. It shows just how scared the Left is about losing its grip. But don’t fall for any of it. Two years ago, Heritage held a press conference to release “Mandate for Leadership: The Conservative Promise.” Today, the President of the United States and his campaign cronies act like they found the secret decoder ring for America’s leading policy and advocacy organization. If we were sinister, would we release the 900-page book online, free to anyone? (Since downloaded 1 million+ times.) If we had something to hide, would we have hosted scores of reporters at a press event? There a reporter from a leading national political outlet asked out loud, “Why such a big book? Conservatives don’t care about policy.” We do care. We were more than happy to walk through our recommendations. Because elections are about choices. About direction. About the future. We believe a menu of policy ideas and a roster of personnel recommendations will be fruitful for the next president. This is what The Heritage Foundation has been doing for more than 50 years, and why we’ve published “Mandate for Leadership” every four years since 1980. Some administrations listen. Others don’t. Reagan handed out copies of our first-ever “Mandate” to cabinet members. Trump adopted nearly two-thirds of our 2016 recommendations. Biden, to the surprise of no one, completely ignored the 2020 “Mandate.” What’s different this year is that our movement is more unified, better organized, and more strategically focused than ever – and that has the Left freaking out. This year’s “Mandate” is the vision of more than 100 conservative groups that represent millions of everyday Americans. Working together, conservatives built our own version of LinkedIn, which now includes more than 10,000 candidates, more than 20% of whom have been thoroughly vetted. The Left sees all this and realizes that Project 2025 poses an existential threat to the permanent unaccountable ruling class of Washington – and they are right. Meantime, we will continue to do our part, building and advancing the permanent infrastructure that will ensure conservative victories, conservative policy reform, and a return to self-governance for years to come. #publicpolicy #politics #leadership

The comment by Elaine C. Kamarck discusses the ongoing invisible primary leading up to the 2024 presidential election, focusing on the Republican nomination race. The author highlights the dominance of former President Donald Trump in various metrics, including polls, fundraising, media attention, and social media followers. However, she suggests that former South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley may emerge as a strong contender to challenge Trump in the Republican primaries based on her recent momentum in national and early state polls, media attention, and fundraising efforts. Kamarck provides valuable insights into the dynamics of the Republican primary race for the 2024 presidential election. It points out the enduring strength of Donald Trump as the front-runner but also highlights the potential for an upset in the primaries. Nikki Haley's rising popularity, especially in early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, suggests that she could become a formidable competitor to Trump. Kamarck acknowledges Trump's continued lead in national polls and his strong position in the Republican race. It notes that Trump has maintained his support base and improved his standing despite legal issues. Nikki Haley's growing popularity and positive trajectory in early state polls are highlighted as significant factors. Her performance in debates, fundraising efforts, and social media following indicate increasing support. Kamarck underscores the importance of early states like Iowa, New Hampshire, and South Carolina, where poor showings can lead to candidates dropping out. Winning or performing well in these states can provide momentum and reshape the race. Kamarck acknowledges potential uncertainties, such as the impact of upcoming debates, the behavior of voters from withdrawn candidates, and the intense loyalty Trump enjoys in the Republican base. Kamarck comments provides a timely analysis of the Republican primary race and the possibility of a competitive challenge to Donald Trump's bid for the nomination. It highlights the fluid nature of primary elections and the potential for unexpected outcomes as the race progresses. #globalaffairs #usa #politics #republicanparty #trump #nikkihaley #usa2024 #elections2024 The Brookings Institution @Elaine C. Kamarck

Glad to say that the next iteration of the Northern Poll is online! Unsurprisingly, voters in Ohio are tired of old politicians, Sherrod Brown is in a close race, and voters are in partisan lock step on attitudes towards the Trump cases. For what its worth, while Trump leads Biden in Ohio, the other potential Democrats all perform worse relative to Biden. For the full results, see the link below: results of the survey: https://bit.ly/3TjUw41

Is the First in the Nation New Hampshire primary still relevant? In the age of nationalized politics and the increasing influence of social media, what role can a primary that historically rewards personal outreach and retail politics still play in the nominating process? Does it even still do that? In 2016, Donald Trump proved that you could win the New Hampshire primary without engaging in retail politics. Further, does doing well in New Hampshire still carry the same weight that it once did? In the past, New Hampshire voters have revived the campaigns of candidates like Bill Clinton, Jimmy Carter, and John McCain and doomed the campaigns of incumbents like Harry Truman and Lyndon Johnson. Recent evidence (such as the 2020 election) shows that doing well (or not doing well) in New Hampshire does not mean as much as it once did. This piece explores the continued relevance of the New Hampshire primary and I also discuss a solution that I proposed just a year ago in a piece in the Daily Yonder (https://lnkd.in/gDGBavBE). #Election2024 #NewHampshire #NewHampshirePrimary #ruralcommunities #rural #ruralpolitics

RealClearPolitics places Haley second in New Hampshire and South Carolina Republican Primary polls, solidifying her rise The Iowa Caucus will be the first contest in the nation to choose delegates to the national party nominating conventions. It is scheduled to be held on January 15, 2024. Three contests will follow in quick succession. The 2024 New Hampshire Republican Presidential Primary will be held on January 23, the Nevada Caucus on February 8, and the South Carolina Primary on February 24, 2024. In ALR’s recent newsletter post, “Nikki Haley climbs in the Republican Presidential Primary Election Polls”, we cited FiveThirtyEight/ABC News data showing Former South Carolina Governor Haley's slow rise in the Republican polls for the presidential nomination beginning in late August 2023. FiveThirtyEight aggregates and weighs different polls to come up with its averages. Some readers may suspect FiveThirtyEight of having a liberal bias. We checked two ratings of media bias, which may provide context for reading FiveThirtyEight/ABC News polling averages. AllSides Media Rating gives 538 a score of -0.40 or ‘Center’ rating on a scale of ‘Left’ (-3.0 to -6.0) to Right (3.0 to 6.0).[1] Media Bias / Fact Check gives 538 a similar rating with more nuance. “Overall, we rate FiveThirtyEight (538) Left-Center Biased based on story selection that slightly favors the left but does not favor the progressive left. We also rate them High for factual reporting due to proper sourcing of information, a solid record with poll analysis, and a clean fact check record,” they report about ABC’s political polling news service.[2] FiveThirtyEight's published averages may actually understate Haley’s rise in the polls. Haley has moved into second place in polls the early Republican primaries in New Hampshire and her Home State of South Carolina.[3] In today’s report, the independent, non-partisan media company RealClearPolitics (RCP) placed Haley in second place in its New Hampshire Polling Average at 18.7% to Trump’s 45.7%.[4] Florida Governor Ron DeSantis has dropped to fifth place in New Hampshire, with an RCP Average of 7.7%. In South Carolina, DeSantis trailed Haley by 8.3% points, just ahead of Senator Tim Scott, who abandoned his candidacy on in early November. Haley is expected to pick up the bulk of Sen. Scott's supporters.[3] ___________________________ [1] https://lnkd.in/dJXsvetZ [2] Media Bias / Fact Check. FiveThirtyEight – Bias and Credibility  https://lnkd.in/dJXsvetZ, accessed on November 27, 2023.  [3] Joseph Bustos (November 27, 2023) Haley is solidly second in SC [South Carolina]. What will it take for her to overtake Trump in the primary? The State. https://lnkd.in/dcMRWbYv  [4] RealClearPolitics. https://lnkd.in/dRvU2x-H

🌟 Exciting News for the Kennedy Campaign! 🌟 We are thrilled to share some positive developments for the Kennedy campaign! According to recent polls conducted by The New York Times and Siena College, voters in battleground states are expressing their dissatisfaction with the prospect of a Trump-Biden rematch in the 2024 election. The polls reveal that both candidates are viewed unfavorably, leaving voters longing for alternatives and curious about independent candidates like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. In fact, when given the option of another candidate, nearly a quarter of respondents expressed support for Mr. Kennedy. This is a testament to the growing desire for change and the need for fresh voices in the political arena. These findings highlight the momentum and appeal of the Kennedy campaign, as voters seek a candidate who resonates with their values and offers a different approach to leadership. We are incredibly grateful for the support and enthusiasm we have received thus far. As we move forward, it is clear that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is not just a political figure, but a vessel for voters to express their dissatisfaction with the current choices. This presents a tremendous opportunity for our campaign to provide a meaningful alternative that addresses the concerns and frustrations of the American people. We would like to extend our heartfelt thanks to all our supporters and volunteers who have been instrumental in our journey. Your dedication and commitment are what make this movement possible. Let's keep pushing forward and spreading the message of change and hope for a better future. Together, we can make a real difference. Stay tuned for more updates on the Kennedy campaign as we continue to gain momentum and work towards a brighter political landscape. #TeamKennedy #KennedyForChange #PositiveCampaignNews #MomentumBuilding

RFK Jr. is running for a reason, and it's not to win the presidency. According to a recent article in The Hill, RFK Jr. is in the race to help his friend, Donald Trump. Check out the article to learn more about Trump's efforts to give RFK Jr. a boost. #politics #election2020 #DonaldTrump #RFKJr.

WHY BIDEN IS UNOPPOSED, POTENTIAL DEMOCRATIC ASPIRANTS WAIT FOR 2028 I think that the lack of a challenge to Biden from within the Democratic Party is explained by the incentives facing individual democratic politicians. The party leadership may understand, in private, that Biden is a poor candidate, but they believe that he can still win because his most likely opponent, Trump, is so toxic and divisive. That puts a ceiling on the votes Trump can attract and should mean that even a moderate performance by Biden in the election in November will be enough for him to win the few crucial swing states that will decide the election. The problem for the Democrats is that Biden may not even achieve a moderate performance in the polls, especially if he performs poorly when campaigning starts to hot up. All his gaffes will be shown repeatedly in the media and erode the voters' confidence in his mental capacity. The complacency of the Democratic leadership might be shaken if the Republicans pick someone other than Trump, who is less toxic to moderate swing voters, but that seems unlikely. So the Democrat party leadership probably thinks that Biden can still win, if the voters are forced to choose between him and Trump. If that is the case, sticking with Biden is the safest option for the Democrat party establishment, because choosing an alternative means having a competitive primary election and that is a process that they can't be sure to control, not least because it is obvious that the party establishment is out of touch with many of the party members, as the divisions over the war on Gaza demonstrate. For ambitious party politicians - Congress members, senators, governors - who might be in with a chance of winning the nomination, it would be possible to trigger a genuine contest by putting their name forward for nomination in the early primaries. However, if they do so, the risks to their own political ambitions will be high. They will draw rhe wrath of the party establishment, probably find it difficult to raise funds and probably lose. It would be hard to criticise Biden in a primary contest without being accused of helping the Republicans inadvertently. And if they can't criticise Biden, how is it possible to campaign against him in the ordinaries? That could destroy any chances that they might have in the future for political advancement. As such, they might think it more realistic to wait until 2028, when there must be an open primary to choose the Democrats candidate for president. #democrats #republicans #republicanparty #democraticparty