Martha Leah Nangalama’s Post

Any attempt to measure public opinion in Russia on Putin’s invasion of Ukraine should be treated with skepticism. Aware of laws that criminalise all criticism of the war in Ukraine, many Russians are too afraid to speak their minds. Yet many millions support Putin’s “special military operation”, because they – relying heavily on state-controlled media – continue to see Ukraine through the distorting prism of imperial history. Due to their one-sided perception of kinship and fraternity, generations of Russians had always viewed Ukrainians as their “little brothers” in need of protection and tutelage. Putin justified his war by calling Ukraine’s statehood a “fiction” – upheld by a bunch of “Nazis” in Zelensky’s government. As Kyiv had increasingly pivoted toward Western institution, and built a post-Soviet Ukraine around democracy and freedom, Putin believed he had to wrest this country back into Russia's orbit. His invasion served to discipline Ukrainians for their own good. By instilling ethnic nationalism and militaristic patriotism in ordinary Russians, Putin will remain in office for life. On his watch Russia had returned to a highly centralised authoritarianism. In the absence of a robust civil society and institutions, the chaos following the 1991 collapse of the Soviet Union comes back to haunt older Russians, who see Putin as a guarantor of stability.

Compared with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine or the horrors of Hamas’s attack on Israel and the ensuing conflict, the one-day war waged in September 2023 by Azerbaijan against its ethnic-Armenian enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh may seem like a blip. But this short war is part of a huge shift that has changed the balance of power in the former Soviet Union and in the world, and that will continue well into 2024. Nagorno-Karabakh played a key role both in the composition of the Soviet Union and in its decomposition. A century ago, as the Bolsheviks captured the Caucasus, they placed Nagorno-Karabakh, a mountainous swath of land rich in Armenian history, into Soviet Azerbaijan as a reward for gaining access to the Azeri oilfields. Seventy years later, as the Soviet Union weakened, Nagorno-Karabakh demanded to be reunited with Soviet Armenia. When the empire collapsed in 1991, a war erupted. Armenia, backed by Russia, gained control over not just Nagorno-Karabakh but also a large surrounding area of Azerbaijan. Nagorno-Karabakh became a rallying cause for majority-Christian Armenia, a source of trauma and grievance for Azerbaijan and a tool of leverage for Russia. Turkey, a majority-Muslim nation that stood with Azerbaijan, blocked its border with Armenia in 1993, making it more dependent on Russia. In 1998 a more belligerent and thuggish regime, run by Armenian warlords from Nagorno-Karabakh, seized political power in Armenia itself and drew closer to the Kremlin. Russia saw Armenia as an important counterweight to Georgia, which was leaning towards the West. But in 2018 young Armenians took to the streets and swept away, Moscow-backed Karabakh clan. In 2020, Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, gave Azerbaijan and Turkey the green light to retake territory around Nagorno-Karabakh. But he also placed troops inside Nagorno-Karabakh as “peacekeepers”, notionally to protect Armenians, but actually to retain influence. But as he contemplated his war against Ukraine, Mr Putin cared more about his relationship with Turkey and Azerbaijan than about poor, democratic Armenia. He allowed Azerbaijan to cleanse Nagorno-Karabakh of Armenians who had relied on Moscow’s protection. As well as betraying those Armenians, Russia hopes to exploit their exodus to foment regime change in Armenia itself. Mr Putin is also hoping to keep a foot on the ground by controlling a corridor linking Turkey to mainland Azerbaijan that might cut through Armenia. Azerbaijan and Turkey hold all the cards, however, and neither wants to make unnecessary concessions to Moscow, particularly when its influence is declining. Nor do they want to side with the West. Instead they want to establish their own power-base in the Caucasus. One consequence of Russia’s war has been the rise of middle powers such as Turkey. Another has been to weaken its influence in the post-Soviet world. https://lnkd.in/e5yxvagA

The Levada Center surveyed Russians about the war against Ukraine   This independent institute, classified as a "foreign agent" by the Russian justice ministry, surveyed Russians in December 2023 and January 2024. To ensure that the survey was as representative as possible of public opinion, 3227 adults living in 137 different cities were interviewed (from 50 federal subjects of Russia). Although it's difficult to know what Russians think about the war, the results of this survey are rich in information, when at least on million Russians have left the country since the full-scale invasion of Ukraine.   Regarding their level of support for the "special operation": ◾ 77% support it ; ◾ 16% do not support it.   On whether to continue the war or make peace: ◾ 40%: continue ; ◾ 52%: conduct talks.   On the outcome of the war: ◾ 77%: Russia’s victory; ◾ 1%: the victory of Ukraine; ◾ 14%: neither country will win.   👉 Despite a downward trend, a majority of Russians still support the invasion of Ukraine.   👉 The same majority believe in Russia's victory, while expressing their weariness after two years of war.   Concerning the moral responsibility of respondents for the deaths of civilians and destruction in Ukraine: ◾ 31% feel responsible ; ◾ 62% do not feel responsible.   Concerning the possibility that the conflict could lead to a Russia-NATO confrontation : ◾ 44% yes ; ◾ 44% say not.   👉 While feeling little concerned about the irreversible damage caused to the Ukrainian people, they are undecided about the future and the evolution of the conflict towards a direct confrontation with the West. (📷 Mikhail Klimentyev, Sputnik, Kremlin Pool Photo via AP. Vladimir Putin speaks in his annual televised New Year's message after a visit to the headquarters of the Southern Military District, on Dec 31, 2022) https://lnkd.in/eq2VPKXn #Russia #Ukraine #war #geopolitics #Europe

Great article. Ending the war in #Ukraine🇺🇦 necessitates a compromise unpalatable to all parties, argues Professor Dan Reiter. He highlights the fundamental issue of mutual distrust among the belligerents. His proposal includes #Ukraine abandoning its #NATO ambitions and accepting the Russian occupation of #Crimea, the West committing to long-term aid to Ukraine, and #Russia withdrawing from post-2022 occupied territories. The plan aims to balance deterrence and compromise but has significant flaws. It oversimplifies #Ukraine's distrust in #Russia, overlooks Ukraine's sovereign right to choose its security alliances, and ignores Russia's broader ambitions and constitutional claims over annexed regions. It also fails to address #Russia's demands for a pro-Russian government and a demilitarized Ukraine, dismisses the irreplaceable role of #NATO membership for Ukraine, and underestimates Russia's continued non-military #subversion. Ultimately, the proposal neglects that Russia's war aims to subjugate Ukraine to bolster its imperial ambitions, and any peace deal not recognizing Russia's #Great #Power status is likely futile. Thus, #Ukrainian #NATO #membership, while contentious, is essential for a lasting solution.

Geopolitical Guru on Causes of Ukraine War John J. Mearsheimer , Distinguished Service Professor of Political Science at the University of Chicago, happens to be one of the greatest theorists on international politics. However, he is in a distinct minority which believes that it was not Russian President Putin's supposed megalomania that is the cause of the Ukraine War. Mearsheimer argues that it was the threat of NATO expansion into Ukraine that triggered the war. #UkraineWar #Geopolitics #NATO #Mearsheimer For details read his substack article:

Russian dictator Vladimir Putin is making plans for a war in #Ukraine until 2030, but he himself will be finished sooner, states #Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. Zelenskyy was asked if he was ready to negotiate with Putin to end the war. However, according to the president, it is impossible to negotiate with a man who kills his opponents. "We will offer him a platform where he can admit that he has lost the war. Is Ukraine losing this war? I am sure that it will not. We have no alternative but to win. If Ukraine loses, we will not exist. We do not want such an ending," the president said. At the same time, #Zelenskyy noted that whether Ukraine loses and how many victims there will be in this war depends only on its partners. "All of Putin's steps back, daily steps back, will definitely have a great impact on his society. Then he will think about internal security. Today, Putin operates with plans and figures and talks about plans for 2030. He sees himself by 2030, and we would like to finish with him earlier," he emphasized. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia It is worth noting that Ukraine and Russia held several rounds of negotiations at the beginning of the full-scale invasion. Now the Ukrainian government emphasizes that Ukraine will not return to the negotiating table until Moscow withdraws its troops. Earlier, NBC News, citing #US and #European officials, said that the US and EU had begun discussing privately with Ukraine the issue of possible peace talks with Russia. According to the media, these conversations included questions about what Ukraine might have to give up in exchange for peace. President Volodymyr Zelenskyy denied the media reports. He emphasized that no one was pressuring Ukraine to negotiate. https://lnkd.in/d5C_gAr3

Breakaway region asks Russia for protection - Remember how russia started their illegal invasion of first Crimea and now all of Ukraine? It started with pro-russians (controlled by Kremlin) appealed to Russia to "introduce measures to protect russians .... This is not 2014, this is from Moldova today.... Authorities in Moldova's Russian-backed breakaway region of Transnistria on Wednesday appealed to Russia to "introduce measures to protect Transnistria from increasing pressure from Moldova". This is written by Reuters. It is particularly about financial pressure, it appears. Transnistria borders Ukraine and has close ties to Russia's government, which has more than 1,000 troops stationed in the breakaway region. Several experts believe that Russia may try to use Transnistria to destabilize Moldova and challenge NATO. So russia now made their next move - to destabilize the next country and steal it.... and still some ask for Ukraine to give russia some of their territory for peace.... Remember russia do not want peace, they want Ukraine, Moldova, the Baltics and more... Wonder what the excuse will be this time NATO? Nazis? Suppression of russians? Historical maps? .... or some other russian BS PS Americans, remember putin also mentions Alaska.... that is part of russia too, according to the emperor... #russia #Moldova #war #NATO #EU #politics #armukrainenow #slavaukraini #Zelensky #ussenate #uscongress

The choice is simple, period

“WHY NOT BETRAY UKRAINE? MAYBE PUTIN WILL CAPTURE IT AND CALM DOWN?” Mikhail Khodorkovsky, “the Kremlin's leading critic-in-exile," a russian ex-political prisoner, businessman, and opposition activist. These are some things you should be aware of, according to him: 💡Putin spends about $120bn a year on the war - 5.4% of Russia's $2.2 trillion GDP - with the most commonly used Russian shell costing about $500 💡European aid to Kyiv over two years amounts to $88bn - about 0.25% of the EU's GDP - with shells that cost between $5,000 and $8,0002 💡This means that, if we include the American contribution, Putin is outproducing the West by at least 2.5:1. This year, without US support, that ratio jumps to 4:1 💡At the start of the war, Russia's population was 142 million to Ukraine's 40 million - a ratio of about 3.5:1. Now, two years later, that ratio is 7:1. And yet, we demand that Ukraine continue to fight on - but with what? 💡At the current rate, Kharkiv will fall within the year, and Odesa - next year. By 2026, Ukraine will be capable only of maintaining a small-scale partisan resistance - and that is in the best case scenario 💡Lviv will be preserved if Polish troops, as part of NATO, enter the city. This is a more optimistic scenario, provided that the Ukrainian Armed Forces continue their heroic resistance despite all the challenges. 💡What is the thought process at play? 'Perhaps if Putin takes Ukraine, he will calm down'? Perhaps he will - although as I have said before, that is highly unlikely 💡More likely, when the war is over, Russian soldiers will be at Poland's border. And they'll be joined by some Ukrainians, resentful of the Western betrayal and, in need of some way to earn a living, forced to join a united Russian-Ukrainian army under Russian command. Credits @Mikhail Khodorkovsky #supportUkraine🇺🇦

"Russia has never been able to become a nation. It was always an empire with the tsar, with the Soviets, and now with Putin." 🇪🇺 Josep Borrel says, High Representative of the #EuropeanUnion for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy 🚨 He correctly points out Russia has always been an expansionist empire, from centuries ago until today. Even after the USSR, Russia invaded Chechnya, Moldova, Georgia, and now Ukraine: "It is a constant of Russia, and its political identity, and as a result a threat to his neighbors – and particularly to us." ⚠️ Borrel also sees no signs that Putin wants to stop the war with Ukraine: "The success of the Russian Federation depends on attracting as many people as possible to the battlefield. And if we do not change course quickly, if we do not mobilize all our capabilities, it will allow Putin to win the war in Ukraine," ❗ There is a great risk that Russia will gain momentum in the conflict with Ukraine. This means that Ukraine's neighboring countries may soon face a military threat from Russia ☝️ It's part of the reason why #Ukraine often Calls them 'Moscovy' instead - Moscovites. The rulers of the Colonial Empire of Moscow. As Moscow's territory stretch from Norway to Japan - and you don't get an Empire like that without a ton of imperialism and colonialism. ⛽ Most of Russia's vast lands remain poor and underdeveloped Extorted for resources like gas and manpower. Extractive colonialism really. Moscow's warmongering will only truly end When the last old colonial empire falls. When Moscow falls. #Military #Journalism #EU #StandWithUkraine 🇺🇦