Michael Lukianoff’s Post

💰Menu prices have risen faster than inflation and now consumers are feeling the financial pinch.. Our latest reports reveal how both American and Canadian diners are increasingly sensitive to menu price hikes (and just how high they’re willing to go). Learn more about today’s cost-conscious consumers and the implications for the restaurant industry 📈🍽️ Download our Canadian 🇨🇦 report: https://bit.ly/3PRPryC Download our American 🇺🇸 report: https://bit.ly/4cP2cUP

The Foodstuffs grocery co-ops have recorded an average rate of food price inflation that’s under 1% per annum for the third month in a row.      In the latest month, May 2024, Stats NZ’s annual rate was 0.2% and the Foodstuffs co-ops recorded 0.45% for food categories in Stats’ basket. It’s the third consecutive month both rates have been below the government’s inflation target of 1 – 3%.    At the same time, the co-ops recorded a 3.6% increase in what suppliers charged for food categories in Stats’ basket – the eighth consecutive month they’ve outpaced retail price rises.   Read all the detail including comments from our CE Chris Quin here: https://lnkd.in/gtTnMrvd Chris Quin Julian Benefield Cindy Chaimowitz Wendy Hammonds Jonathan Box Andrew Gaukrodger Simon Kennedy Esther Gordon Clinton Rowling Catherine Tardif Torben Akel Trish Sherson

The July update of our UK Market Price Inflation Tracker shows how hospitality and grocery price inflation compares versus the most recent ONS figures (data to 31/5/24). 📊🍽️🛒🔍 Food and Drink price inflation in Pubs & Bars and QSR & Coffee Shops continues to run at far higher rates than the headline rate of inflation for the economy overall. We’re seeing a slight softening in the headline rate of inflation month-on-month in the QSR & Coffee sector, whilst inflation in Managed Pubs & Bars is showing little change month-on-month. There has been a noticeable upturn in the price of Beer & Cider in the Grocery sector, with data to 5/7/24 showing average prices up by 5.9% year-on-year (compared to +4.3% year-on-year last month). All of our pricing data is collected product-by-product, site-by-site, enabling us to track price inflation across over 18,000 UK hospitality venues, and 10 national grocers. Give us a shout if you’d like to find out more: 📧 [email protected] Ben Wooler Darroch Bagshaw Robert Thursfield

The rate of inflation slowed to an annual rate of 3.4% in February, reflecting a downward effect from restaurants and cafes, where prices rose by 0.7%, compared to 2.1% in January https://lnkd.in/e5pZMvse

"Fierce competition between #supermarkets has led to the first monthly drop in food prices for more than two years" Good to see that there is respite in the constant bad news of the #costofliving with #food prices coming down slightly from the massive increases we have seen recently. Seems like more and more of my spending money goes on the weekly shop these days so hopefully the price increases will continue to slow down. https://lnkd.in/ebpMy8KR

I saw this post by Joe McFarlane, whom I have never met but immediately liked when I read his post at the bottom. First my own view: I was debating with my friends yesterday about the state of the economy and how things do not make sense. This example of food below is precisely what I am talking about. Below are a few stats, which you can validate for yourself (Fed, Fannie Mae, etc), that outlines how serious of a negative financial state we are in: First, the Buy Now Pay Later (BNPL) industry 1-As of fall 2023, about 9% of consumers used BNPL, which is a 40% increase from two years earlier. 2-In 2024, BNPL is expected to drive up to $84.8 billion in consumer spending, which is about 13% more than 2023. Between January and April 2024, BNPL platforms were used for a record $25.9 billion in e-commerce spending, which is an 11.8% increase from the previous year. BNPL funding for groceries also increased by 40% between early 2023 and 2024. (Dan Note: Groceries!!!!!!!!! 40% more people buy basics to live daily through BNPL. People can not afford their basics in life) 3-The US BNPL market size was valued at $3.55 billion in 2024 and is projected to reach $25.30 billion by 2033. Now combine that data with how well we are saving in the USA (Hint: Not well) 1-The personal saving rate in the United States has been decreasing in recent years, and as of February 2024, it was at its lowest level in over a year. The personal saving rate is the percentage of personal income that American households save after taxes and expenses, and is tracked monthly by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. In February 2024, Americans saved 3.6% of their disposable personal income, which is down from 5.3% a decade ago and below the average before the COVID-19 pandemic. This rate is also lower than the long-term average of 8.46%. Now personal data from yesterday (I was at the land of Disney in Florida): 1-Uber/Lyft too and from cost just over $142 (9 people) 2-Park hopper passes for 1 day cost $2,169 (9 people) 3-Lunch $86.31 (5 people) 4-Dinner $71.28 (6 people) 5-Misc drinks (mostly water) throughout the day $79 6-Dessert $59.57 (6 people) 7-Tank top because of a wardrobe malfunction $37 7-Total for a single day of Disney Parks FL with between 5-9 people depending on the time of day $2644 The long and short is that costs are going up, and more people than ever don't have savings in their bank accounts. Now that they have burned through those bank account savings over the last couple of years, they are turning to BNPL. This bubble will be popping in the next 18 months.

We want to know if this is being reflected in your prices? Could this be the ease in inflation we're all waiting for? The Times reports that last month prices charged by food manufactuerers fell by the fastest rate in over 3 years. https://lnkd.in/ecBrn3ME #FoodPrices #FoodandDrink #Hospitality #Foodservice

Interesting development highlighted by The Kobeissi Letter: is the slowdown in restaurant activity signalling that a #fed pivot Indicators of restaurant activity continue to show signs of weakness in the US. Interestingly, this has been almost perfectly correlated with the Fed raising rates. Restaurant activity in the US hit an all time high in August 2021. Since the Fed started raising rates in March 2022, restaurant activity has moved in a straight line lower. As excess savings are depleted and inflation remains an issue, consumers are cutting back. And more credit card debt is not the solution here.

You want fries with that? For those of you picking up takeaways for dinner, they’re likely costing you a lot more than they used to. The price of a burger is up 54% since 2015, while a piece of fish and a scoop of chips now costs 74% more! Even salad prices are up 50% (though a highly scientific poll of the people sitting next to me confirms that no-one eats the salad that comes with their chips). Pizza price inflation has been more modest, with prices up 30% since 2015. And since you're reading about inflation, maybe you want to check out our preview of next week’s New Zealand CPI report (Available here: https://lnkd.in/gEMW22Rw ). We expect inflation will come out on the high side of the RBNZ’s forecasts. We’re forecasting a 0.8% quarterly rise, which would leave prices up 4.2% over the past year. Westpac New Zealand Kelly Eckhold Darren Gibbs Michael Gordon #inflation #rbnz #newzealand #pizza #burgers #salad

#Inflation ⛔ #Egypt #Record_high_consumer_prices Consumer prices rose by 87.8% in September 2023 compared to prices in 2019. Food and beverage prices increased by 131.7%. This means that if in 2019 a family of 5 members used to spend 3000 EGP on food and beverages per month, nowadays they would need 7000 EGP to cover the same expenses. The overall inflation rate has exceeded 40% for the entire republic on an annual basis, marking a historical first.