Min Lan Tan’s Post

We published our predictions for the upcoming US election on 5 November! Get in touch if you or your company would like to learn more about different scenarios and what it all means for businesses and geopolitics. #uselection2024 #geopolitics #politicalrisk #controlrisks

Great to be in the U.S. again and to catch up with colleagues and clients. Also really exciting to be on the ground in the run up to the U.S. election - one of many happening around the world, but a uniquely pivotal event globally, impacting politics and business.   What our experts are saying:     ⏰ Uncertainty Ahead: The US political landscape remains dynamic and contested, with implications for global economics and international relations.    🗳️ Election Outlook: Despite shifting polls, our forecast favours President Joe Biden's narrow re-election, alongside a split Congress—Republicans likely taking the Senate, Democrats the House.    💼 Prepare for Impact: Regardless of the outcome, the election will shape U.S. leadership and its global commitments.     #USPolitics #GlobalRisk #ControlRisks #Seerist 

US President Joe #Biden has withdrawn his candidacy for a second term in office and endorsed Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee. The focus will now shift to the confirmation of the new Democratic nominee, whether there will be any material differences in their policy priorities that could affect markets, and whether the new nominee will be more likely to defeat former President Donald #Trump in November. At a glance Investors should remember that US political outcomes are far from the largest driver of financial market returns, or even sector performance. Economic data and Fed rate cut expectations remains at least as important. We therefore advise investors against dramatic shifts in portfolio strategy based on their expectations or political preferences. Instead, we recommend various strategies to manage the risks surrounding the election, including holding a well-diversified portfolio and considering structured investments with capital preservation or yield generation features. #USelections

20 August 2024 US (AND EUROPEAN) POLITICS Trump vs Harris: Assessing the likely outcome  The US presidential election is paramount for Europe and global financial markets. I have developed a simple yet robust model to predict the US presidential election outcome. While national opinion polls hold some value, the real king-makers will be swing states, where a single vote could sway that state’s electoral votes to one of the two candidates. The race is neck-and-neck in a few states, while the outcome is (almost) already determined in most others. Kamala Harris is gaining momentum nationally, with a 1.5pp lead that is steadily increasing. However, the situation in swing states is less favourable for her, suggesting a slight lead by Trump in terms of the number of presidential electors. Sensitivity analysis suggests broadly balanced risks on both sides. I will update the predictive model regularly leading up to the 5 November election day. (check with me for full commentary; institutional investors only) #USpresidentialelection #eurozone #us

As expected and due to the pressure from the Democratic Party, Joe Biden abandoned the reelection campaign for the U.S. presidency. He hasn’t step down from his obligations as current president. He endorsed Kamala Harris, but it’s not clear who will be the actual candidate, as it is not his decision. In the chart below, you can find what the betting odds are for each potential candidate, where some familiar faces have appeared in the race. In a month, in August 22nd, the candidate needs to be elected, confirmed and needs to formally accept his/her nomination. This comes at a time where Trump had a big advantage against Biden, with only 3 months left to Election Day. Let’s see what the market reacts to this news on a week where 2Q U.S. GDP and PCE will be published and with 10 days to the next FOMC meeting. Want to know more? join Fund@mental here https://lnkd.in/ewBZ9GK4 #iamfundamental #soyfundamental #wealthmanagement #familyoffice #financialadvisor #financialplanning #policymistake #ratecut #stagflation

🚀 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝘀𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗗𝗲𝗯𝗮𝘁𝗲: 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗩𝗲𝗿𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁 𝗼𝗳 𝗣𝗿𝗲𝗱𝗶𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗠𝗮𝗿𝗸𝗲𝘁𝘀   Yesterday's presidential debate had a seismic impact on prediction markets, with trading volumes on PredictIt reaching unprecedented levels. Here’s the latest insight from the markets:   𝟭. 𝗕𝗶𝗱𝗲𝗻 𝘃𝘀. 𝗧𝗿𝘂𝗺𝗽: The odds of President Biden defeating former President Trump have plummeted to record lows.    𝟮. 𝗗𝗲𝗺𝗼𝗰𝗿𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗰 𝗡𝗼𝗺𝗶𝗻𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻: Despite a shaky performance, prediction markets still favor President Biden to win the Democratic nomination. However, the chances of potential replacements like Gavin Newsom or Kamala Harris have seen a significant increase.   #PresidentialDebate #Election2024 #PredictionMarkets #PoliticalAnalysis

The US election campaign is heating up and will have global implications! 🔥 Our lead economists are providing a first in class review on the global implications of a Trump victory; or the impacts alternative Democratic party leaders will evoke. 📈 Want to hear more? check out below or drop me an email [email protected]

The dramatic departure of Joe Biden throws fresh uncertainty into the US presidential election race. With just over three months to go, Democrats are scrambling to agree a candidate and Donald Trump is looking only slight less likely to win in November in light of Sunday’s news. Join our senior economists for this special US election online briefing all about the state of the race and what to expect from November’s outcome. Our economist team will be answering all the key questions including: - The domestic and global economic consequences of Mr Trump; - Harris or another – What to expect from the Democratic candidate; - The implications for US and global financial markets. Register now to attend this special online briefing: https://lnkd.in/eAdbtNYt  #uselection #uspolitics #useconomy

Political noise could impact the markets over the next six months. And there are some stocks and sectors that might fare better or worse depending on whether President Biden gets re-elected or former President Trump wins a second term. But don't forget about the battle for Congress. Also, earnings and the economy will probably be bigger factors for investors than the election. My latest for Barron's. #election #stocks #economy #biden #trump #congress #federalreserve #earnings #inflation #interestrates #politics https://lnkd.in/gtNegtp5

🚨 URGENT INSIGHT 🚨 There is a consensus that Biden has already lost the election and will soon be replaced by another candidate. But remember the old wisdom: "The report of my death was an exaggeration" - Mark Twain. Or simply: "Don’t count your chickens before they hatch." When everyone believes the same, the opposite often happens. Translation: Don't make plans based on expected good outcomes until they actually occur. It doesn't matter who wins, Biden or Trump; the US population is highly divided, and the polarization between the two voter groups is becoming more extreme. I expect a major escalation until November. After November, we will no longer recognize the USA because neither side will accept defeat and will enforce its claim by force if necessary. 👉👉👉 Click here: https://lnkd.in/dp8_x74X SUBSCRIBE to my channel to stay informed about the big changes coming. #Election2024 #inflation #USPolitics #CriticalThinking #ww3