Nicholas Kontopoulos’ Post

China's State Council has recently revealed their “silver economy,” a groundbreaking strategy intended to address the challenges posed by its rapidly aging population. This comprehensive plan aims to boost investments and innovation in areas such as healthcare, financial planning, and anti-aging solutions. With 21.1% of China’s population being over the age of 60, this initiative is a significant step in safeguarding the well-being of its elderly citizens. You can learn more about the “silver economy” here: https://lnkd.in/gWvchXbp At A4LI, we recognize how China’s problems mirror those faced by the U.S. As our population continues to age, it is vital that we adopt similar proactive strategies and that emphasize longevity research. Together, we can create a foundation where everyone can live better for longer.

‘TFR’ you must have heard of this term if you are interested in Geopolitics.  Total Fertility Rate (TFR) is important because it directly influences a country's population growth and demographic structure. TFR is crucial for Population Sustainability, Economic Planning, Resource Allocation, Sustainable Development, and Public Health. A TFR of 2 is considered an ideal level for reasons such as Balanced Age Structure, Economic Benefits, Environmental Sustainability, and Resource Management. However, let’s see what happens when a country falls below this level. The biggest examples are China and Japan with a TFR of 1.16 and 1.30 respectively.  China: 🇨🇳 - Aging Population: Rapid aging due to low TFR is increasing the dependency ratio, with fewer working-age individuals supporting a growing elderly population. - Economic Challenges: Labor shortages and increased costs for elderly care are straining the economy, potentially slowing down growth. Japan: 🇯🇵 - Demographic Decline: Persistent low TFR has led to a shrinking population, causing challenges in maintaining economic dynamism. - Workforce Shrinkage: A declining workforce is impacting productivity and innovation, with fewer young people entering the job market. - Social Impacts: Increased pressure on social security systems and healthcare services as the proportion of elderly individuals rises. Addressing low TFR requires comprehensive strategies that encompass economic, social, and policy dimensions to ensure sustainable development and societal well-being. China has made policy decisions with efforts such as the relaxation of the one-child policy and incentives for larger families whereas Japan has taken the road of Innovative Solutions; Japan is focusing on technological advancements and robotics to offset labor shortages and improve productivity. #Demographics #Economy #China #Japan #PopulationTrends #Sustainability #PolicyInnovation #TFR

From the "Opinions of the General Office of the State Council on Developing a Silver Economy to Improve the Wellbeing of the Elderly" China's State Council issued [2024] No. 1: https://lnkd.in/dxrJCj_z "(17) Develop anti-aging industry. Deepen research on skin aging mechanisms, human aging models, human hair health, etc., and strengthen the research and development applications of genetic technology, regenerative medicine, laser radio frequency, etc. in the field of anti-aging. Promote the in-depth integration of biotechnology such as genetic testing and molecular diagnosis with the delay of geriatric diseases, and develop early screening products and services for geriatric diseases. Promote the research and development, formula and production process design and development of cosmetic raw materials." https://lnkd.in/deE3stCH

Challenges are mounting for China. There were two troubling data releases this week highlighting major population decline and a large slide in equity prices. Chart 1: The Chinese National Bureau of Statistics recently released annual demographic figures, showing that the nation’s population shrunk for a second straight year. Before 2022, that hadn’t happened since the 1960s. The global decline in birth rates is a potential headwind for many economies and social-security systems, and China is seeing a particularly dramatic change. In 2016, there were nearly 19 million births; in 2023, that number dropped to just 9 million. Chart 2: Chinese equities continue their multiyear slide. Since Jan 1, 2021, the two primary Chinese indexes are down 38% and 42% respectively. In this same time period the S&P 500 is up 30%. This major selloff has fueled further capital flight from foreign investors, and forced emerging-markets-focused funds to adopt strategies that leave China out of their portfolios.

China Faces Economic Challenges Amid Aging and Shrinking Population China's demographic shift poses significant economic headwinds as the country grapples with an aging and shrinking population, impacting labor force and fiscal policies. Key Points: – Demographic Shift: China's working-age population is declining rapidly, projected to drag GDP growth by 1% per year over the next decade, according to Darren Tay, head of Asia country risk at BMI Country Risk & Industry Analysis. – Economic Impact: The shrinking labor force is expected to strain productivity, capital accumulation, and labor inputs. The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) warned of immediate and concerning fiscal strain due to aging. – Raising Retirement Age: The EIU suggests raising the retirement age to 65 by 2035 to mitigate pension budget shortfalls and increase net pension by 30%, relieving government and household burdens. – Declining Birth Rates: Fertility rates have halved across OECD countries, with China's birth rate dropping faster than its regional peers. The population is expected to decline to 1.317 billion by 2050 and to 732 million by 2100. – Housing and Family Costs: Rising housing costs and improved living standards have made it difficult for people to afford homes and start families. The opportunity cost of having children has increased in more developed economies. – Policy Adjustments: China is focusing on enhancing productivity, investing in digital solutions, automation, and advanced chips to offset the declining labor contribution to GDP. – Future Projections: Despite demographic challenges, maintaining a 3% growth rate would still improve living standards, with the average Chinese citizen better off by 13% in real terms by 2033. China's policymakers are encouraged to raise the retirement age, provide tax rebates for child-rearing, and improve affordable housing to address these challenges. Read more here: https://lnkd.in/gZq-bPUS #China #Economy #Demographics #AgingPopulation #EconomicPolicy #GrowthChallenges #LaborForce

China's dynamics have been much discussed; its weaknesses much less so. According to recent data, China has the lowest birth rate in the world at 1.3 children per woman. This marks a stark contrast from the country's past of having a large mass of young, low-paid workers. As a result, the nation is now beginning to see the first glimpses of a population collapse tidal wave that is set to unravel within a generation. Rapid aging has at least 3 major impacts: 1. End of the low-cost labour model since senior workers, though more productive and skilled are also more expensive. The labour cost advantage which helped China become the workshop of the world is ending, but it has not made it up in the value chain to high-quality producer 2. No hope to break away from the export-driven economic growth model, since aging population is not that consumes mosts; domestic demand is weak and will weaker further making it unable whatsoever to suck in local production, 3. Mass retirement will force the state to devote massive resources to it and the society to adapt. These consequences will hit China even harder because: - its economic model relies solely on export surpluses… - the conditions for which (free trade, open seas lines of communication,…) are jeopardised and threatened by its geopolitical ambitions.

Learn about China's population changes and economic challenges in 2024. Find out how the government and young people are dealing with the issues. Get the real scoop on the 'China Dream'. #China

China's population has reached its peak, indicating that we are at the beginning of a demographic turning point, after which the population will begin to decline. United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs data suggest that from a total population of 1.42 billion people in 2022, a gradual decline is anticipated through the remainder of the century. China's population is anticipated to decline to 1.31 billion by 2050, 1.08 billion by 2070, and end the century at about 766 million, that is about 658 million souls fewer than at present. Similar to advanced economies, a decline after the peak indicates an ageing population with a lower birth rate, which typically leads to a shrinking workforce and increased pressure on pension and healthcare systems. This trend should eventually require adjustments in policy, such as immigration policy, retirement age, and family planning regulations, to manage the implications of an ageing population. Meanwhile, a decreasing population, particularly of the working-age group, could pose challenges in sustaining economic growth and may necessitate a shift towards productivity improvements and automation – a trend we may already be witnessing with post-zero-COVID Chinese policies primarily aimed at boosting consumption and the services sector, not necessarily accompanied by fiscal stimulus through mass infrastructure spending. This in turn could affect China's prowess as a demand growth engine for #drybulk shipping fundamentally as this century unfolds.

The decline in working-age population in China pushes for an evolution of its economic model. China reported a record low birth rate in 2023 as its population shrank for the second year in a row. The trend marked the deepening of a demographic challenge set to have significant implications on the world’s second largest economy. The country recorded 6.39 births per 1,000 people, down from 6.77 a year earlier, China’s National Bureau of Statistics (NBS). The birth rate is the lowest since the founding of Communist China in 1949. 📌 Economic Imbalances The shrinking workforce and ageing population will exacerbate existing structural imbalances like: ▪ Low household consumption: China already has one of the world's lowest consumption rates. ▪ Provincial debt: Many provincial governments are heavily indebted due to past investment-driven growth, making them vulnerable to the pension burden. ▪ Pension crisis: The pension system may run out of money by 2035, with many provinces already facing deficits. 📌Ageing Workforce: With a low retirement age and large numbers leaving the workforce, China's worker-to-retiree ratio is shrinking rapidly. This could lead to: ▪ Slower productivity growth: An ageing workforce may be less innovative and more resistant to change. ▪ Increased reliance on exports: A shrinking domestic market could force China to focus more on exports, potentially hindering its efforts to move up the value chain. 📌Government Measures: ▪Promoting the "silver economy": Encouraging businesses to cater to the needs of the elderly. ▪Raising the retirement age: This is under consideration but not yet implemented. ▪Other policies: Guidelines for healthcare, housing, and finance for the elderly are being developed. ⚔ Challenges: Implementing effective policies will be difficult due to: 1️⃣ Deep-rooted cultural expectations around retirement. 2️⃣ Financial constraints of local governments. 3️⃣ Potential societal unrest from those affected by policy changes. #china #ageingpopulation #demographics

China has a major productivity problem... US productivity is nearly 6 times that of China and China's productivity lags even other emerging economies like Brazil and Mexico by considerable margins. Perhaps even more concerning is the disparity between productivity growth and wage growth. While both have slowed in recent years, in the last decade wage growth in China has outpaced productivity significantly with wages increasing at average annual rate of 8.8% and productivity increasing at 6.43%. This poor productivity will become an even greater challenge as China enters a period of population decline and aging. As we can see in the chart, Japan's productivity growth stalled during a time when they experienced similar demographic changes as are expected in China. The changes in China, however, are expected to be faster and more extreme. In the 18 years since Japan's population peaked in 2005, it has lost 2.51% of its population. China is expected to lose 5.2% of its population by 2039, 18 years after its peak in 2021. Population aging will be more intense as well. Japan increased its percentage of the population aged 60+ from 27% to 35% and China's is expected to increase from 18% to 32% over a comparable time period. Additionally, Japan benefited from having established a very high level of per capita GDP prior to their demographic decline. These additional resources allowed them to develop a robust social safety net whereas China's is very weak compared to high income countries. If China is going to have any chance of successfully navigating the serious economic challenges it faces, it will have to find a way to dramatically and quickly increase productivity. Sinophants will point to the investments in automation and the inevitable conclusion that China will dominate in AI and robotics, but Japan has also been a leader in automation and they've barely managed to stay above water. It's also worth mentioning that even if productivity increases dramatically, that only solves one side of the equation. The question still remains...who's going to buy all that stuff they're producing? #China #demographics #populationdecline #populationaging #productivity