Olaf Gersemann’s Post

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Ressortleiter Wirtschaft und Finanzen bei WELT; Axel Springer AI Fellow 2024

127/n #aiexpedition – the China appendix, No. 4. CONSUMERS. The demonstrative indifference that tourists encounter in Shanghai is surprising also because China's economy could really use private consumption right now. This is evidenced not only by macroeconomic statistics or the collapsing China sales of Gucci reported at the end of March, but also by anecdotal evidence.   On Saturday evenings or during the Qingming holiday, Nanjing Road shopping boulevard was very busy. But beyond prime time and prime locations, streets, malls, and shops are sometimes almost deserted. In the "Super Brand Mall" in the shadow of the Shanghai Tower, e.g., artistically veiled sales areas (pictured) indicate retail calculations that do not (or no longer) add up. This was very different in all the other metropolises I visited in the Far East before.   HOUSING. Vacancies are not only found in retail but also in the housing market. From the train from Shanghai to Suzhou (yes, in the end, we got our train tickets through detours), we repeatedly detected entire groups of tall, obviously completed but vacant residential buildings.   I have only seen something like this before in Bangkok and Kuala Lumpur – in 1998, when a debt-fueled real estate bubble caused the great Asian crisis.   (To be continued.) #goingeast2024 with Pascal Roski. #axelspringer  

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