OECD - OCDE’s Post

Despite energy prices falling from their previous record highs, EU electricity demand further declined in 2023 by 3.2%. Lower industrial electricity demand was the most important factor, as in the previous year.  Following a 5.8% decline in 2022, we estimate electricity consumption in the EU industrial sector fell 6% year-on-year in 2023, with energy-intensive industries the hardest hit. The average European wholesale electricity price in 2023 was still roughly double the 2019 level. This, combined with slower economic growth, lower consumer demand, weaker exports and the overhang of stocks from 2021 and 2022, depressed EU industrial electricity demand further. Chemicals and and primary metal industries were hit especially hard, and there are signs of some permanent demand destruction in these sectors, as we discussed in detail in our IEA Electricity 2024 report.

The world will be swimming in oil by 2030 according to the latest outlook from IEA. This will be driven by increasing supply, interestingly also from a range of non-OPEC countries, and declining demand as renewables ramp up and replace hydrocarbons in our economy. It is certainly a plausible scenario but I would nevertheless caution the optimism or pessimism, depending on where you sit. It is correct that the oil industry typically has very long lead times so it reacts slowly, but it does react. So I wonder if the investments in supply capacity will continue as assumed if this scenario really starts materializing. And in any case, how long would it then last. And on the demand assumption, a lot has to happen not only to replace current consumption of oil and gas but also to meet the significant, additional demand for energy that is expected. Just think of what is needed in energy infrastructure investments to support the EV growth or for AI. It is going to be really busy and I remain a little skeptical that this will happen in full. However, I have never been good at forecasting energy demand/supply balances or prices for that matter. But then again, who has?

The International Energy Agency's (IEA) latest Oil Market Report paints a surprising picture for the future of oil. While global oil demand is expected to notch up some growth in 2024 and 2025, the pace of that increase is slowing dramatically, hinting at a potential peak in consumption sometime this decade. This marks a significant shift from the oil supercycle of the past, characterised by ever-increasing demand. This slowdown can be attributed to several factors. The exceptional demand surge witnessed in 2022 and 2023, fuelled by post-pandemic economic recovery and pent-up travel desires, is fading as normalcy returns. But there are deeper structural changes at play as well, according to the IEA. China, the engine behind recent oil demand growth, is experiencing an economic slowdown. This, coupled with its ambitious clean energy goals and rapid adoption of electric vehicles (EVs), means it will contribute significantly less to future demand increases. Read this week's #Baltic feature: https://bit.ly/3JyEWwI

Europe's energy crisis appears to be easing as gas storage facilities reach record highs and wholesale market prices decline. However, experts caution that underlying economic challenges persist, stemming from years of high energy costs that have slowed consumer demand and industrial activity. Despite lower energy prices, industrial gas demand remains below pre-pandemic levels, signaling ongoing economic impacts. Additionally, Europe's reliance on more expensive LNG imports raises concerns about the sustainability of the recovery and the affordability of renewable energy investments amidst weakened market prices and rising supply chain costs. “Is the energy crisis over? No,” says Tomas Marzec-Manser, head of gas analytics at the data provider ICIS. “I would say that we’re managing the crisis. But the wider economic picture has become its own beast.” #EnergyCrisis #GasPrices #EconomicImpact #RenewableEnergy

📶 Monthly Gas ⛽ Statistics - International Energy Agency (IEA) The following are the conclusions that can be derived from the IEA's Monthly Gas Statistics report, which includes data up to June 2023, for the OECD (Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) region: 1. Production Stability ✅: Natural gas production has remained stable compared to the previous year (June 2022), suggesting 👀 that there has not been a significant increase in production. 2. Decline in Imports 📉: Imports of natural gas in the OECD region have experienced a significant decrease of 22.9% on a year-on-year basis, indicating a reduced reliance on imported gas. 3. Reduction ⭕ in Exports: Total OECD natural gas exports have also decreased by 15.6%, suggesting a decline in gas exports to other markets. 4. Decreased 📉 Consumption: Gross natural gas consumption in June 2023 has decreased by 2.1% compared to the previous year, indicating a decrease in natural gas demand in the region. In summary, the data points towards an overall decrease in natural gas-related activity in the OECD region, characterized by reduced domestic demand, decreased imports, and a decline in exports. These trends may be related to change 💡 in the energy mix, environmental policies, or economic fluctuations in the region 🌎🌏🌍. #gas #energy #future

The IEA's Electricity Mid-Year Update forecasts a 4% growth in 2024, the highest since 2007, excluding post-crisis rebounds. Global demand for electricity is surging at its fastest pace in years, driven by robust economic growth and the adoption of electric technologies like EVs and heat pumps. The report also highlights significant increases in electricity consumption in major economies, with India's demand expected to surge by 8% and China's by more than 6%. The U.S. is forecast to see a 3% rebound, while the EU anticipates a robust 1.7% growth. Rapid electrification is a cornerstone of the energy transition. The chart below shows that electricity generation has been growing systematically above total primary energy demand since 1985 (Source of the data: IE Statistical Review of the World Energy). #ElectricityDemand #EnergyTransition

Worth a read as Europe economy is struggling , energy requirement going down for industry , high energy costs . Though Germany has a target of net zero by2045, this fall may be unplanned but more of a result of slow down in economic activity and import of energy ..

Early November, the 6th High-Level Meeting of the OPEC-India Energy Dialogue was celebrated in Vienna. The event served to reaffirm the good relationship between both parties, which are key players in the global energy market that are committed to work to ensure energy availability, affordability and sustainability. Based on the WOO 2045 prepared by the OPEC Secretariat, this article reviews main figures about India considering its relevance as one of largest global economy and energy consumers in the years to come. Likewise, some comments about the ambitious energy plan implemented by the Indian government are also assessed, concluding that India shows how the efforts to develop renewable energies in the country will live together with fossil fuels, which will continue being the main energy source, in order to meet the increasing energy demand in the country. More comments: https://lnkd.in/db5fC65b #energy #energia #opec #india #energydemand #renewableenergy #cleanenergy #fossilfuels #energiasrenovables

In this roundup, we look at: - Why the IEA World Energy Outlook 2023 is affected by the “Horizon Effect” bias, and what this means for its fossil energy demand forecast   - The next phase in China’s plan for its refining sector, which is about optimization after two decades of growth, and represents a major change from the status quo of the past 25 years   - The confirmation from Saudi Arabia that is still open to a formal agreement with Israel, once the issue of the Gaza War is resolved   - The additional US export restrictions for chips used in AI applications; and the opinion that says this will not hold back China’s AI progress   -  Why for over half of the world’s economies, fossil fuel use peaked at least five years ago already (but that doesn't mean consumption will suddenly taper off)   - The pushback by environmental campaigners against the EU’s plan to provide subsidies for projects that repurpose gas pipelines for hydrogen   - Why the EU must cut greenhouse gas pollution almost three times more quickly than it has over the past decade to meet its climate targets And so much more! Please subscribe if you don't want to miss any of the updates - its free and Substack offers a ton of interesting content in addition to ours. https://lnkd.in/gmZhaGjv #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity

In this roundup, we look at: - Why the IEA World Energy Outlook 2023 is affected by the “Horizon Effect” bias, and what this means for its fossil energy demand forecast   - The next phase in China’s plan for its refining sector, which is about optimization after two decades of growth, and represents a major change from the status quo of the past 25 years   - The confirmation from Saudi Arabia that is still open to a formal agreement with Israel, once the issue of the Gaza War is resolved   - The additional US export restrictions for chips used in AI applications; and the opinion that says this will not hold back China’s AI progress   -   Why for over half of the world’s economies, fossil fuel use peaked at least five years ago already (but that doesn't mean consumption will suddenly taper off)   - The pushback by environmental campaigners against the EU’s plan to provide subsidies for projects that repurpose gas pipelines for hydrogen   - Why the EU must cut greenhouse gas pollution almost three times more quickly than it has over the past decade to meet its climate targets And so much more! Please subscribe if you don't want to miss any of the updates - its free and Substack offers a ton of interesting content. https://lnkd.in/gS4xmFus #energy #energysecurity #energygeopolitics #geopolitics #politics #money #energypoliticsmoney #energyequity