Patrick Toomey’s Post

Great observations from 5 economists in this ULI article. Ryan Severino, CFA reminds us of the "owners equivalent rent" flaw in the data. KC Conway, MAI, CRE, CCIM reminds us that PPI is a precursor to CPI (mostly) and that statistic declined this month. If producers are experiencing a decrease in costs, perhaps that will flow to consumers. Also - these guys are smart AND good looking! Good for them! #inflation #CPI #PPI #interestrates

Saw this today from James Clear "Productivity is most important for things you don't want to be doing. Most people want to increase productivity so they can spend less time on the task. But before you worry about being more productive, think about being more selective. Rather than focusing on increasing productivity, it may be worth asking, "What would I be delighted to spend time on, even if it went slowly?" Direct your energy toward figuring out how to start what you want to do rather than thinking about how to shorten what you don't want to do." Sometimes productivity is spending MORE time on things that matter. My best productivity is focused time on important projects that support my business. Often that is early in the morning well before everything gets started. The call to being selective about what you work on resonates with me. #productivity #atomichabits #habits

I don’t normally share these things, but I find this incredibly humorous.

Grocery anchored center in Phoenix... see link below! #cre #retailrealestate #commercialrealestate #opportunity #phoenixrealestate #arizonarealestate

This is a GREAT summary of what is going on in the commercial real estate market. I think we are in the middle of the "recalibration" that we have been waiting for - Sellers coming to grips with current pricing standards. Additionally, bank regulators are becoming more assertive about MATURING loans on bank balance sheets - pushing borrowers to recap or sell. I think "pretend and extend" is finally drying up, but time will tell... however the regulatory pressure is a real thing and will continue to drive behavior. Let's talk about your commercial real estate investments! #CommercialRealEstate #institutionalinvestor #PrivateInvestor #Distress #DistressedAssets #CMBS #DelinquencyRate #MaturingDebt

A not-so-perfect storm not only for Rue 21 but other companies - rising interest rates, supply chain issues, and stricter lending requirements... the "pretend and extend" may be coming to an end. Fortunately, there has been so little development of retail properties over the last 15 or so years, that in many cases the landlord can re-lease at a higher rent than the failing tenant was paying anyway. Debtwire's latest Restructuring Insights report found bankruptcy filings jumped 58% in 2023, climbing from 179 in 2022 to 282.  "The 58% spike in bankruptcies in 2023 signaled a major shift in lenders' attitudes, unwilling to prolong support for struggling companies," said Catherine Corey, Debtwire's global head of restructuring data.  "A convergence of challenges, including the post-pandemic withdrawal of government support, inflation, rising interest rates, supply chain disruptions, global unrest, and stricter lending requirements, created a perfect storm." #retailrealestate #bankruptcy #cre https://lnkd.in/g2xg3fbP

Urban retail has some great "tailwinds" showing 3.3% rent growth over last year. Urban areas are benefiting from a surge in apartment living as a lifestyle choice due to the fact that owning a single family home can be about 62% more expensive than renting an apartment unit (varies by location of course). Let's talk retail! Reach out to [email protected] or my partners Tom J. Lagos Jose Carrazana or Enrique Wong to schedule a phone call, or a meeting at ICSC in May.