Take-Two’s biggest challenge: The transition to GTA VI
The launch of Grand Theft Auto VI is likely to break all launch sales records when it hits the market, but while this is the case for initial full game sales, the key question for the long-term future of the franchise and Take-Two’s ongoing commercial performance is how Rockstar Games intends to manage the transition of the existing GTA Online audience to the new experience and platform
GTA Online is the engagement engine behind GTA V
➡ Ampere's data shows that GTA V/Online regularly engages over 20 million players every month across PlayStation, Xbox and Steam platforms – with 25m in Jun-24 following the release of the latest update Bottom Dollar Bounties. Many of these players are on older gen consoles and PC. As such, Ampere expects Rockstar to continue operating GTA Online for the foreseeable future, but this will mean maintaining multiple communities as the user base is split following the launch of GTA VI
➡ Rockstar has never previously been faced with this sort of transitional challenge, though Take-Two more broadly has deep expertise across its live service sports franchises, which regularly shift audiences to new releases, and the ongoing commercial importance of the GTA franchise leaves very little room for error
Managing multiple communities and potential ways forward
➡ Ampere data shows that GTA V/Online was the 4th most played game in June across PlayStation, Xbox and Steam ranked by MAUs, was played for 350 million hours with average players returned to the game on five different days during the month. While there has been no confirmation of ‘GTA VI Online’, we also don’t expect the new game to launch without a roadmap of online play, as this is key to long-term engagement and commercial longevity. This will result in maintaining two live service GTA experiences for at least several years post launch
➡ Running these experiences in parallel will be a resource heavy and complex challenge, but the original GTA Online has the advantage of acting as a key user acquisition channel for gamers to transition across to the new platform. Rockstar already manages communities across its different games through the Rockstar Games Platform and this will play a critical role in pulling together GTA’s increasingly fragmented audience. We expect this platform to evolve over the next year to support what is set to be one of Take-Two’s biggest ever commercial challenges
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