Richard Verma’s Post

If you were a West African country, particularly a small one and a poor one, it seems like a smart strategy to play the US and China off each other for who will offer you the best deal for a navy base. China wants one. The US doesn’t really want one, but really doesn’t want China to have one. In the end, it will come down to the highest bidder. It brings to mind how Malta sweetened its deal with the U.K. by offering their base to Russia. It worked! China isn’t picky about who they will work with. Thwarting them will probably require the US to pay off a dictator. Probably more than one. We will find out how much a priority it is for the US to keep China out of the American, I mean Atlantic, Ocean. Shannon Brandau Liza Tobin J. Scott Christian William Collins Eric Olander 欧瑞克 Christopher Sharman Kit Conklin Edo 慧人 Naito 内藤 Bryce Barros Wayne Junius Ozmore, Jr. Atlantic Council RAND Center for a New American Security (CNAS) Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) Hudson Institute Peter W. Humphrey #china #foreignpolicy #nationalsecurity Dr Alicia Hennig 海岸 🏴☠️ Zachery Tyson Brown #china

China hosts foreign naval officials amid South China Sea tensions By Laurie Chen April 20, 2024 The Chinese Navy on Sunday kicked off a biennial meeting of top foreign naval officials in the port city of Qingdao, in a show of military diplomacy that will be closely watched for signs of more engagement between China and the United States. The four-day event with delegations from 30 countries comes during heightened tensions in the South China Sea, as U.S. treaty ally Manila is in an increasingly fraught standoff with Beijing over the strategic waterway, which could be a potential flashpoint for U.S-China relations. Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Stephen Koehler will attend the Western Pacific Naval Symposium on behalf of the United States, according to a source familiar with the matter. Other country delegations include Australia, France, India, South Korea, Russia and Britain, state media reported. Participants will hold closed-door talks on Monday, with seminars on topics such as addressing maritime security challenges. They will also discuss the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, a set of guidelines formulated a decade ago, meant to de-escalate tensions between militaries at sea. It has not since been updated to cover drone warfare. A January preliminary meeting discussed the creation of a working group to prevent drone collisions at sea, state media reported. The event overlaps with annual U.S.-Philippines large-scale joint military drills beginning on Monday, which will occur outside Philippine territorial waters for the first time. Tensions are particularly high around the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, where Manila has accused Beijing of "harassment", including the use of water cannons against Philippine vessels. The United States, Japan and the Philippines signed a cooperation agreement at a trilateral summit last week, where leaders expressed concerns over China's "dangerous and aggressive behaviour" in the South China Sea, which Beijing slammed as "bloc politics". "The U.S.-Philippines joint drills this time cover a bigger region, involve more troops and include exercises out of its original defensive scope such as anti-submarine and anti-missile drills," said Cao Weidong, a military expert and former researcher at China's PLA Naval Military Studies Research Institute. "It is not an issue when the U.S. carries out defensive drills with the Philippines, but when these drills become offensive in nature and pose a threat to neighbouring countries, we must not only be on high alert but also respond." However, Washington and China resumed top-level military contact on Tuesday, with Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin speaking to his Chinese counterpart for the first time in almost two years, as both countries seek to restore military ties. This month, U.S. and Chinese military officials met in Hawaii.

#China #Navy -  China hosts foreign naval officials amid South China Sea tensions - excerpts from Reuters News Agency The Chinese Navy on Sunday kicked off a biennial meeting of top foreign naval officials in the port city of Qingdao, in a show of military diplomacy that will be closely watched for signs of more engagement between China and the United States. The four-day event with delegations from 30 countries comes during heightened tensions in the South China Sea, as U.S. treaty ally Manila is in an increasingly fraught standoff with Beijing over the strategic waterway, which could be a potential flashpoint for U.S-China relations. Pacific Fleet Commander Admiral Stephen Koehler will attend the Western Pacific Naval Symposium on behalf of the United States, according to a source familiar with the matter. Other country delegations include Australia, France, India, South Korea, Russia and Britain, state media reported. Participants will hold closed-door talks on Monday, with seminars on topics such as addressing maritime security challenges. They will also discuss the Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea, a set of guidelines formulated a decade ago, meant to de-escalate tensions between militaries at sea. It has not since been updated to cover drone warfare. A January preliminary meeting discussed the creation of a working group to prevent drone collisions at sea, state media reported. The event overlaps with annual U.S.-Philippines large-scale joint military drills beginning on Monday, which will occur outside Philippine territorial waters for the first time. Tensions are particularly high around the Second Thomas Shoal in the South China Sea, where Manila has accused Beijing of "harassment", including the use of water cannons against Philippine vessels. The United States, Japan and the Philippines signed a cooperation agreement at a trilateral summit last week, where leaders expressed concerns over China's "dangerous and aggressive behaviour" in the South China Sea, which Beijing slammed as "bloc politics". "The U.S.-Philippines joint drills this time cover a bigger region, involve more troops and include exercises out of its original defensive scope such as anti-submarine and anti-missile drills," said Cao Weidong, a military expert and former researcher at China's PLA Naval Military Studies Research Institute. Story continues, for full report click below: https://lnkd.in/eJ6RjG3q

#China🇨🇳 Two new personnel promotions earlier this week -- elevation of Wang Wenquan (王文全) and Hu Zhongming (胡中明) to General on Christmas Day. #Wang is political commissar for PLA's Southern Theater Command, and Hu is #PLA Navy commander. So new Defense Minister Dong Jun's appointment, plus the elevation of this new crop of top military officers with Navy and South China Sea experience is a sign of China seeing South China Sea as a new priority area of geopolitical contestation between China and the US. Recall U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan's quote: "intense competition requires intense #diplomacy". Well, China just promoted 2 new generals who can intensely compete for naval supremacy in SCS, & named a new DefMin from Navy to pursue intense military diplomacy. Domestically, on personnel tradition, choosing Dong Jun as new Defense Minister also follows existing tradition of appointing non-Army generals to lead China's military diplomacy. China has a tradition of appointing generals from non-Army backgrounds to the Defense Minister-ship (to deal with foreigners). Heads of relatively technical agencies such as the PLA Rocket Forces and the General Armament Dept (that does procurement) are the usual favorites.

Thanks to Joe Trimble for sharing this initially and putting it on my radar. This interesting article provides several potential ways to rectify a gap with strong future consequences. While this article focuses on conventional wars, it still ties directly into the third objective listed under Goal 4 of the United States Strategy to Prevent Conflict and Promote Stability: "Recruit, train, and retain diverse staff, including U.S. military veterans, with relevant skills for fragile environments, and deploy diplomats and development professionals alongside U.S. military operational and tactical elements where needed and where security conditions permit." Doing it right will certainly involve reducing risk aversion when evaluating 'where security conditions permit.'

The U.S., Japan and the Philippines will launch joint naval patrols in the South China Sea later this year, according to a U.S. official and a foreign diplomat familiar with the planning. It’s a major move to counter China in the region — and one likely to elicit a strong response from Beijing. The three-country naval maneuvers are part of a package of initiatives that President Joe Biden, Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. will unveil at their first-ever trilateral summit next month, the official and the diplomat said. The White House is also expected to announce that it will “seriously consider” having Japan as a technological partner in elements of the “AUKUS” security partnership between the U.S., U.K. and Australia, according to a Defense Department official and another person familiar with the planning, both granted anonymity to speak ahead of an announcement. The April 11 trilateral summit is seen as key to cementing efforts by the three countries to counter China’s regional influence. White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre said in a statement last week that the three leaders will discuss ways to “further peace and security in the Indo-Pacific,” but did not provide further details. The South China Sea has become increasingly tense in recent years as China has used its military might to lay claim to waters internationally recognized as belonging to the Philippines — establishing bases and harassing Philippine Coast Guard units. There are rising concerns in Washington that Beijing and Manila could tip into open conflict. Beijing could also use those military outposts to support a blockade or invasion of Taiwan in coming years. The joint naval patrols will mark the most robust assertion of the Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy hinged to rallying allies and partners to offset China’s growing economic, diplomatic and military footprint in the region. While the U.S. and the Philippines have conducted joint patrols previously, this will be the first time Japan’s navy has joined with them in doing so — a show of force designed to show Beijing its belligerence won’t be tolerated. Japan’s involvement also reflects the Kishida government’s moves to make Tokyo a bigger player in regional security alongside the U.S. that began with his announcement in 2022 of a doubling of the country’s defense budget within five years. The National Security Council, DOD and the Japanese embassy in Washington declined to comment. The Philippine embassy didn’t respond to a request for comment. The joint operations also raise the risk of possible confrontations with Chinese forces operating in the region. Beijing has already ignored repeated warnings from the Biden administration that the U.S.-Philippine Mutual Defense Treaty obligates the U.S. to intervene if Philippine forces come under armed attack.

A record number of Chinese warships encompass Taiwan A record number of Chinese warships have been spotted close to Taiwan's regional waters. Toward the end of last week, 16 warships were identified in 24 hours. The safeguard service of the independent island made such a case on Sunday. Experts accept China's decision Socialist Coalition might send warships to threaten Taipei. The activity by Individual Freedom Armed Force Naval Force (PLAN) around the Taiwan Waterway finished at 6 a.m. neighborhood time on Saturday. These vessels were available around the island from last Friday to Saturday. US experts consider the area to be an endeavor to increase military action. There was no authoritative reaction from Beijing in such a manner. The island's specialists frequently identify Chinese warplanes in Taiwan's air safeguard zone. There was strain about this. By the center of last week, Taiwan guaranteed that 73 PLA airplanes had crossed the middle line of the Taiwan Waterway. Taipei said without a doubt elaborate boundary crossing. Even though Beijing has not recognized the issue, there is a sort of pressure about it. Nonetheless, the central concern that has come to the front is that the Chinese Naval force partook in joint air and maritime activities with Russia in the Ocean of Japan on Sunday. From this, it is accepted that the Chinese warship was seen close to the regional waters of Taiwan. The activity signals expanded military participation among China and Russia. Relations between the two nations have been fortifying since Russia's hard and fast intrusion into Ukraine. The Chinese Naval force has five warships and four boats sent off helicopters. Prior to Saturday, the Service said that the Russian Naval Force and Flying Corps will partake in this joint activity. Taiwan has guaranteed that few Chinese boats have been seen close to Adige Island for three days straight. Taiwan's protection service said 16 Chinese boats were spotted on Friday and Saturday. Carl Schuster, the previous head of the US Pacific Order's Joint Knowledge Community, said in a meeting with CNN on Monday that this is a developing military exertion. This implies that Beijing is attempting to carry out its arrangement in two ways. #UnitedNations #europe #ArabLeague #usa #uk #russia #france #germany #spain #italy #australia #canada #KingCharlesIII #antónioguterres #JoeBiden #valdemirputin #JustinTrudeau #RishiSunak #EmmanuelMacron #OlafScholz #XiJinping #receptayyiperdogan #IbrahimRaisi #KimJongUn #MohammedBinSalman #BenjaminNetanyahu #norendamodi #BillGates #elonmusk #jeffbezos Buy lifesaving, life-decorating products online at Amazon.com Amazon.com. Spend less. Smile more. Your daily friend only Amazon.com https://lnkd.in/gE7YkDsN

In my latest article for China Diplomatic Digest, I discuss the purpose of China's PLA Navy's goodwill visits. For nearly 40 years, China has been sending its navy on goodwill visits, starting with Pakistan, Sri Lanka, and Bangladesh in 1985. This year, the PLA Navy has conducted multiple goodwill tours, from Southeast Asia to the Persian Gulf and West Africa. The purpose of these visits can be linked to both soft and hard power ambitions. In addition, two of the countries visited this year are also suspected to be planned hosts of PLA Navy bases. China's naval diplomacy is an element for China's foreign policy that is sometimes overlooked, with most articles discussing China's navy's involvements in disputes in the South China Sea. For my full analysis please visit: https://lnkd.in/eMk_ZbVJ

“The arrival of these Chinese #warships at #Ream exposes #China’s long-concealed #military aims, marking a major evolution in China’s regional #defense posture. To continue dismissing China’s expanding military footprint is to indulge in self-delusion,” said Craig Singleton, a senior fellow at the Washington-based think tank the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD). Singleton, who wrote an analysis on Beijing’s growing push for overseas port access earlier this year, said China’s presence at the Ream Naval Base is part of a broader plan to complicate America’s global military calculus. China's little-known, little understood strategy is known as 'forward edge defense," which centers around deploying military assets abroad where China’s adversaries – principally the United States – are strongest. In doing so, Beijing stands a reasonable chance of striking American military nodes and other high-value targets during a potential future conflict, with the goal of neutralizing Washington’s ability re-direct forces toward China’s immediate periphery during a Taiwan contingency.”  "By building closer military ties and economic dependencies with select countries along major #maritime routes, Beijing can exert diplomatic pressure on them, limiting U.S. basing access and complicating coalition-building efforts to support #Taiwan’s defense should China ever invade,” the self-ruled island Beijing claims as its own, Singleton said. #greatpowercompetition #uschinarelations #uschina #indopacific #indopacific2023 #nationalsecurity #foreignpolicy #internationalrelations #ports # More here from CNN's Nectar G.

Could the thaw in diplomatic chills lead to safer skies and seas? This week, Honolulu became the stage for an important dialogue between U.S. and Chinese military officials, aiming to iron out the wrinkles in air and naval operational safety.     A Look Into U.S.-China Military Talks The Military Maritime Consultative Agreement (MMCA) Working Group, a cornerstone for U.S.-China #airandmaritimeinteractions #bilateralmilitaryengagements #Chinasmilitarystrategy #IndoPacificoperationalsafety #maritimeandaviationsafety #MilitaryMaritimeConsultativeAgreement #operationalsafetydiscussions #professionalmilitaryconduct #USandChineseforces #USChinamilitarytalks