S&P Global Mobility’s Post

How strong are the headwinds for EV adoption? This growing inventory trend is likely to persist. Especially with lower forecasted customers returning to market combined with the number of new EV models hitting the market in the next 6-18 months.

New data point on #EV inventory in the US: Electric vehicle inventory continues to grow faster than that of the industry as a whole. April finished at 167,000 vehicles, an increase of 5.7% against March and 105% vs. last year. Read more inventory trends in our latest blog: https://okt.to/V0rPq1

High interest rates will weigh on consumer purchasing power and limit U.S. auto sales growth through 2026; rising inventories for several electric vehicles (EVs) and plug-in hybrids indicate slowing demand. Increasing negative rating bias for the auto sector likely in 2024. We expect limited margin and cash flow improvement with higher interest rates and rising pricing pressure as supply gradually normalizes. Read our full report here: https://ow.ly/kHh450QACZO

🗞️ In 2023, the automotive industry saw a return to relative normalcy in terms of sales with the pandemic and supply chain issues mostly resolved. EV adoption increased and now accounts for close to 10% of the total market in the US, partly due to the Inflation Reduction Act offering incentives for American-made EVs. https://lnkd.in/eAUQn-A #AutoIndustryRevival #EVBoom

Sometimes it’s useful just to stand back and assess developments in the overall auto markets -not just EV markets. Here’s a useful article I ran across on overall vehicle market supply chain costs that I suspect is equally relevant to the likely trend in EV sticker prices in the next few years… https://lnkd.in/gpqH5j2T

#Mobility Minute with Mike Wall on LV Production forecast update: The global light vehicle production environment remains on a fairly steady footing. The past few months have been marked by modest upward revisions in the very near-term and that trend continues with the May 2024 update. While elevated vehicle prices, “higher for longer” interest rates and somewhat slowing economic growth rates represent headwinds, the outlook for vehicle demand remains generally constructive. Notwithstanding the noteworthy topline production stability, propulsion mix developments continue to vary by region as some markets face slower EV adoption growth rates while other areas continue to see rather encouraging results. Turning to North America, S&P Global Mobility's latest light vehicle production outlook remains stable at 16.0 million units for 2024 relative to 15.7 million units for 2023 to maintain ideal inventory levels as US light vehicle sales are expected to increase 2.6% to just under 16.0 million units. Ask Mike a question https://okt.to/hk9tNe #VehicleProduction #EVAdoption #EconomicGrowth #AutomotiveIndustry #PropulsionMix #LightVehicleProduction #InventoryLevels #USVehicleSales #SAndPGlobalMobility

As 2024 approaches, S&P Global Mobility forecasts 88.3 million new vehicle sales worldwide next year as the recovery rolls on. With the brakes off the supply chain, the risk to further growth is that demand momentum fades as consumer uncertainty overtakes pent-up demand.

The latest car and van production figures out this week show an auto industry finally getting back on track after the tough Covid years, helping meet pent-up consumer demand as manufacturers were increasingly able to manage global supply chain challenges – notably the shortage of semiconductors.   The positive news was not just limited to the total output but also the types of vehicles we are producing, with electrified vehicle production surging by 71.6% to a new first half record.   Read my Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders (SMMT) Update looking at what we must do to continue to build on this momentum, especially if we are to meet our ambitious decarbonisation goals. https://lnkd.in/e96M5Hu6