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Name: Schwab Network on LinkedIn: ✂ “To me, September is a lock right now.” Prosper Trading Academy's…
Uploaded: 2024-07-05T13:37:47.535Z
Channel: Schwab Network
Description: ✂ “To me, September is a lock right now.” Prosper Trading Academy's Scott Bauer reacts to the June employment data with Ben Lichtenstein:

Schwab Network

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✂ “To me, September is a lock right now.” Prosper Trading Academy's Scott Bauer reacts to the June employment data with Ben Lichtenstein:

Transcript

Scott, talk to me. Am I thinking the right thing here, balance with nonfarm payrolls higher than expected, but that unemployment rate also a bit of an uptick there, definite balance. And I'm focused right on the 10 year and we're seeing the 10 year actually tick up rates come down a little bit. And it's so interesting then because we had this conversation one week ago today when that PC came out and and that initial reaction, we saw the 10 year dip down and then it rallied, rallied really, really strongly. Early in the week and now we're almost back to the levels that we were right when that PCE report came but came out last Friday. So this is a very balanced number. the Fed probably likes this a lot because even though the number was higher than expectation, you know, by 10,000 or so, it's down considerably from where it was last month. And even though you and I and, you know, most of the mainstream doesn't want to see unemployment tick up, the feds probably not so upset about that so. I haven't looked at TME Fed Watch yet. I know going into the #71% probability of a rate cut in September, that probably ticked up a little bit just now. Yeah, I'll take a look at that in just a second and and update that for you. I'm still just kind of breaking down this number and I'm looking manufacturing actually decline down 8000. We haven't seen that since March and the month prior to that where we saw a decline was looks like back in November. No, we are seeing again I think some some weakness from every angle of the economy. Every report that we're seeing has shown a little bit of a break from where we have been. Has there been anything about any sort of revision to last month's number? I didn't look at that non farm payrolls revised lower to 218,000 also maybe providing that balance, right, that's a huge, that's a huge revision is that number came in at what 260 or two? 7272, Scott, right, which was far ahead. Yeah, all the good point Asians were good eye you you almost have to wonder how how do we get data so far off because you're talking about a 30% revision there, Ben, I think things in the economy are cracking a lot quicker than maybe the Fed thinks. And to me September is a lot right now I mean a lot could happen over the next couple months, but September is. A lock because the trend for eco data across the board is weaker. Scott, as you were saying that Alex Coffee just stepped into the studio. Look, he hands me this post it note over the last two months down 111,000 in terms of revision. So they're not getting this number right. No, they're not. It's really unbelievable. I, I don't know, you know, I'd love to, to understand it. I don't, I'd love to understand it and see where that disconnect is. But kudos to Alex. There are no, we didn't just talk about doing the math right now. He's spot on. But but this, this, this is there's something wrong with this. There's something fundamentally wrong with that because these numbers affect the market in a big way and to to have such a large error regardless. Go back to the main point here. Things are weak, Ben, I, I shouldn't say things are weak. Things are OK. Things have been weakening. And remember, what the Fed is looking at is all this rear view data. They're not looking forward. If they did look forward, they might even cut it to July meeting in two weeks, which we know is not going to happen. But if they did look forward, you know, they, they've got they, they've got to get their aggressive cues on. Scott, I was just told that the Fed expectations the Fed. Watch tools showing 71% for that September Talk to me average hourly earnings 0.3% in line with expectations and a downtick from 04. That's gonna help things as well. There, there's no doubt about it. This, this is I, I really don't like the term Goldilocks. This is something that the Fed wanted to see. It is a little bit of a weakening. It's not too weak that's going to spook the market, but it is really feeding into their narrative that they have been fighting inflation. Yes, they're going to come out and say they have more work to do blah, blah, blah, but they, they, they better get their, their thinking caps on here because come September. If this trend continues over the next couple months. I I think we may have a little bit of trouble on our hands.

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