╰☆☆ ᴘᴀsᴛ ᴘᴇʀғᴏʀᴍᴀɴᴄᴇ ɪs ɴᴏ ɢᴜᴀʀᴀɴᴛᴇᴇ ᴏғ ғᴜᴛᴜʀᴇ ʀᴇsᴜʟᴛs ☆☆╮ I'm always surprised by the magical thinking that underpins so many posts, especially from those without technical or scientific training. Believing that we can extrapolate a continuous trend from the impressive progress of a technology is shortsighted. No, the predictive or even programmatic power of Moore's empirical law is not a universal law of technology, far from it. Many technologies that initially experienced exponential growth have eventually hit nearly insurmountable limits. Believing that the impressive successes of one era are indisputable evidence of continuous exponential progress is a mistake. Let's beware of this bias, the source of much golden calf bullshit.
You do not build bridge by extrapoling on gateway 🙂
D'où le fait que des bulles éclatent...
IT projects are a kind of projections. Like martial arts, you cannot guarantee never flying to the grounds at any time.
Hans Baier
2w
Haha, accurate
Senior Graphics Programmer, Studio Wildcard
2wFair point. However, I must highlight a fine subtext. A lot of the momentum built into the current global economic paradigm is based on hyper-optimism. A lack of optimism -- even in service to combat hyper-exuberance -- can result in dried up liquidity and lack of investment. As the AI bubble wears off, clearly advancements have happened in its wake in certain network topologies, most famously (but not limited to) transformers. Even the infamously shady realm of cryptocurrencies left research by companies like Informal Systems in areas of BFT systems analysis. The renaissance of VR brought the attention and expertise of John Carmack into HMD research. The thought of infinite growth drives the modern global economy. Even if nVidia is going to have a correction at some point... I hope it never comes. nVidia squarely deserves every last bit of capital left on planet Earth... a lot more than Google, Microsoft or Blackrock. (Oh God, I hope they never read this...) Anyway, without boundless optimism, we're in a recession. We're toast. We have to believe in some prophecies... and hope they'll become self-fulfilling. We have no choice.